ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
I waited until Sunday to get the Sunlan game against Dull into the stats.
I was just glad to get the Weeds game over and, to be quite honest, I’ll be a mess at the Stoke game. Ziggy was immortal because Bowie retired him in July 73 and moved on – I saw him on that tour in June 73 at the City Hall . Tragically, we don’t have the option for our own Starman to move on and come back.
Starman:
Anyway, on to the Weeds game and, quite simply, Wilder thinks too much. We had just hit on something that really worked, that happens sometimes. Unbeaten in 9, with 6 clean sheets in a row, hazy cosmic jive – as Ziggy would have put it. Then DJ Wilder stepped in, just to show us how clever he was!
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, you never get criticised for playing a winning team.
Analysing this game is simple:-
5 Shots to their 13 + No Shots on Target to their 4 = Deserve to lose.
We went out the back door!
So what do the usual season graphs and charts look like now?
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 19 points, compared to my benchmarks, we are now 3 points behind my Autos Line and 1 behind my Playoffs Certain Line. That was our first game against any of the main contenders and it supported my pre-season belief that we are a good playoff team, but an unlikely Autos team. As usual, by request Graph 1 includes our city rivals’ results, which the majority like to see, and Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy) doesn’t include them for those who don’t like to see it.
Graph 1:
Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy):
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 19 points (with a 2-point deduction) we are now exactly level with the 19 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are 4 points behind Hecky in 22/23 and 8 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 4th place, just behind Leeds on goal difference and, without the deduction, we would be level with Burnley in 2nd place.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season and I now post a review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
The big overperformers compared to my forecast are still Oxford, Blackburn and Derby and the biggest underperformers compared to my forecast are still Luton and Coventry.
Over/Under Performance Table:
I’ll be doing the XG comparisons next Tuesday evening when I’ll have all the XG data for Matchday 10.
So first defeat, learn and move on.
There's a Starman waiting in the sky.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
I was just glad to get the Weeds game over and, to be quite honest, I’ll be a mess at the Stoke game. Ziggy was immortal because Bowie retired him in July 73 and moved on – I saw him on that tour in June 73 at the City Hall . Tragically, we don’t have the option for our own Starman to move on and come back.
Starman:
Anyway, on to the Weeds game and, quite simply, Wilder thinks too much. We had just hit on something that really worked, that happens sometimes. Unbeaten in 9, with 6 clean sheets in a row, hazy cosmic jive – as Ziggy would have put it. Then DJ Wilder stepped in, just to show us how clever he was!
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, you never get criticised for playing a winning team.
Analysing this game is simple:-
5 Shots to their 13 + No Shots on Target to their 4 = Deserve to lose.
We went out the back door!
So what do the usual season graphs and charts look like now?
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 19 points, compared to my benchmarks, we are now 3 points behind my Autos Line and 1 behind my Playoffs Certain Line. That was our first game against any of the main contenders and it supported my pre-season belief that we are a good playoff team, but an unlikely Autos team. As usual, by request Graph 1 includes our city rivals’ results, which the majority like to see, and Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy) doesn’t include them for those who don’t like to see it.
Graph 1:
Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy):
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 19 points (with a 2-point deduction) we are now exactly level with the 19 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are 4 points behind Hecky in 22/23 and 8 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 4th place, just behind Leeds on goal difference and, without the deduction, we would be level with Burnley in 2nd place.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season and I now post a review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
The big overperformers compared to my forecast are still Oxford, Blackburn and Derby and the biggest underperformers compared to my forecast are still Luton and Coventry.
Over/Under Performance Table:
I’ll be doing the XG comparisons next Tuesday evening when I’ll have all the XG data for Matchday 10.
So first defeat, learn and move on.
There's a Starman waiting in the sky.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
