Injuries

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SwissBlade said:
We can talk recruitment and the Prince this and that… but

There is a systematic problem at the club with Fitness and preparation

If I could be arsed I’d look into the types of injuries and their cause in Heckys time.

Re injuries is a concern. Why do so many get similar or same injuries after a lay off? They’re not rushed back. So what is the issue?

Soft tissue injuries, non contact injuries tell a story that the preparation isn’t right, facilities or something like the methods are playing a part.

You can play yourself sharp, but you can’t play yourself fit if the base wasn’t right. Preseason has clearly been shambolic as we’re off the pace.

Recovery is key and we have time during the week to recover. Are they putting too much in that they’re not peaking on game day?

Cramp is something which shouldn’t be a worry until you’re really depleted. We’ve seen different players with cramp today to last week

And players that tire will also get other soft tissue injuries. Fatigue shouldn’t be underestimated as a contributor.

A premier league club that relies on fitness would be well advised to get a consultant in to do a review of our entire set up.
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Sat at the front of John Street stand v Stuttgart and something I noticed was how much more muscle mass our players had compared to theirs. Stuttgart players were built like middle distance runners ours like sprinters. Makes me we wonder whether we focus too much on weight training and explosive power than stamina and mobility.
 

Proper Blade said:
According to Premier Injuries we have the most injuries in the EPL, with 10. I remember checking this last season and we were regularly top too. So it's not an industry-wide thing. We get a disproportionate number of injuries compared to other clubs.
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It's just bad luck mate. We probably need another desso at the training ground or summit. 😄
 
blades78 said:
Sat at the front of John Street stand v Stuttgart and something I noticed was how much more muscle mass our players had compared to theirs. Stuttgart players were built like middle distance runners ours like sprinters. Makes me we wonder whether we focus too much on weight training and explosive power than stamina and mobility.
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Hard to judge against opposition from Europe as the Premier league is very physical and has more demands in that respect. But it could be a factor
 
Here's the Premier League injury league table as of this weekend:

1692638712942.png

And for the statisticians, I've included the Z-score to show the statistical significance of each team's injuries. A score of less than -1.96 or more than 1.96 (for a significance level of 5%) suggests that the number of injuries we have is not the result of random chance. Now it's a good few years since I worked with statistics so I might have made some miscalculations, but basically the rest of the league can legitimately say their injuries could be just down to bad luck; for us, it looks like something else that can't be explained by simply saying it's bad luck...
 
Colombia Blade said:
Here's the Premier League injury league table as of this weekend:

View attachment 168890

And for the statisticians, I've included the Z-score to show the statistical significance of each team's injuries. A score of less than -1.96 or more than 1.96 (for a significance level of 5%) suggests that the number of injuries we have is not the result of random chance. Now it's a good few years since I worked with statistics so I might have made some miscalculations, but basically the rest of the league can legitimately say their injuries could be just down to bad luck; for us, it looks like something else that can't be explained by simply saying it's bad luck...
Click to expand...
Didn't know Lowe was now injured?
 
Colombia Blade said:
Here's the Premier League injury league table as of this weekend:

View attachment 168890

And for the statisticians, I've included the Z-score to show the statistical significance of each team's injuries. A score of less than -1.96 or more than 1.96 (for a significance level of 5%) suggests that the number of injuries we have is not the result of random chance. Now it's a good few years since I worked with statistics so I might have made some miscalculations, but basically the rest of the league can legitimately say their injuries could be just down to bad luck; for us, it looks like something else that can't be explained by simply saying it's bad luck...
Click to expand...
Our 10:
McBurnie - bruised foot (impact)
Bogle* - knee (impact/management)
Coulibaly - knee (unknown but back in U21 action)
Jebbison - groin (soft tissue)
Fleck - fractured leg (impact)
Brewster - hamstring (soft tissue, recurrent)
Norrington-Davies - hamstring (soft tissue)
Slimane - hamstring (soft tissue)
Baldock - calf (soft tissue)
Lowe - foot (unknown)

Is the Z-score related to the number of injuries or something else? We have three players out with impact-related injuries* (maybe Lowe too?) but Chelsea have none while Bournemouth, Villa and Everton all have one. What we don't have - maybe it's down to luck - is any players out with ACL issues which seems to be a fairly common thing for other clubs but we do have a lot of players out with hamstring issues which should be a concern for the medical and conditioning teams.

*Bogle's knee issue stems from that assault by Areola at Fulham in 2021 but his rehabilitation seemed to be rushed owing to our injury crisis in 2022 and he's had a couple of related issues since then
 
Part of it has been blamed on the training ground pitch which wasn't finished for a long time despite an agreement (and part of PH's budget) put aside to do so. PH wasn't happy about this, describing it as a degenerating problem playing a part in injuries. I feel certain players were overplayed due to this leading to further injuries. A domino effect: injuries to some players necessitating overplaying other players causing further injuries.

The big worry for me is the recovery periods from surgeries, and recurring issues post surgery. Brewster, RND, Bogle, Coulibaly, Berge, Fleck and JOC all had surgeries that resulted in further work being needed soon afterwards. Not good. I hope the new pitch will eliminate a lot of this.
 
Balham Blade said:
Is the Z-score related to the number of injuries or something else?
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The Z-score is how many standard deviations away from the average a particular result is. In a normal distribution, you would expect 95% of results to fall within 2 SDs (like every teams' number of injuries except our total). Chelsea is the only team more than 1 SD away from the average, and even that is considered normal. Ours is 2.4 SDs away from the average, which is statistically significant. Any result outside of 2 SDs would not be expected as a consequence of random chance (which is not to say it is not random chance, just that it's not expected to be).
1692731629868.png
Basically, there's a good chance our number of injuries is not down to random chance and the club really should be looking at what the cause is...

(Obviously these injuries are taken from one specific time, you'd probably want to look at numbers over a season to get a more accurate result, but I can't be arsed)
 
From a trusted source (for me anyway) Brewster has another injury and is expected to be out for another 6 months, don’t know whether it is the same hamstring he was supposed to be just getting over.
 
Seems like Baldock and McBurnie will be involved Sunday.

Still out/no mention

Bogle
RND
Lowe
Coulibaly
Slimane
Fleck
Jebbison
Brewster
 

WF10BLADE said:
Not to mention players at our club seemingly take longer to recover than others
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Probably explains why Hecky never proves estimates of expected recovery time scales.

Wilder always used to say stuff like , “it’s just a knock…he’ll be out a week or 2”
or “it’s a hamstring tear….we’ve done a scan so it looks more serious than normal…so instead of the normal 3 months it might be as much as 6 mths out”

Hecky could also tell us what he’s been told
but it seems that every estimate he’s given always ends up being much longer.
Anyone could conclude the medical team are incompetent….so Hecky is protecting their reputation by no longer providing updates.
 
You would think that footballers being expensive assets and good football results being quite economically advantageous that the club would be all over this is. But seems to have got worse over the last 2 years and no sign of stopping or even getting worse. Someone is asleep/missing at the wheel somewhere at the club...
 
Rudders said:
You would think that footballers being expensive assets and good football results being quite economically advantageous that the club would be all over this is. But seems to have got worse over the last 2 years and no sign of stopping or even getting worse. Someone is asleep/missing at the wheel somewhere at the club...
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Which is why people at the club will be all over it. I don't think people on a forum are the only ones to realise the impact it has.
 
Heckingbottom on Jebbison

"He's out with an illness. He has a health issue so he'll be out for a bit. He's not doing anything at the minute."

Jayden Bogle is back fit after a knee issue, giving Heckingbottom food for thought at right wing-back, but Anis Slimane will miss out against City with a hamstring issue and is expected to return to full training on Monday.
 
Colombia Blade said:
Here's the Premier League injury league table as of this weekend:

View attachment 168890

And for the statisticians, I've included the Z-score to show the statistical significance of each team's injuries. A score of less than -1.96 or more than 1.96 (for a significance level of 5%) suggests that the number of injuries we have is not the result of random chance. Now it's a good few years since I worked with statistics so I might have made some miscalculations, but basically the rest of the league can legitimately say their injuries could be just down to bad luck; for us, it looks like something else that can't be explained by simply saying it's bad luck...
Click to expand...
I was wondering about this over the weekend. It seems like it's gone beyond bad luck now and I'dve thought it should be amenable to pretty basic statistical analysis.

The only thing I can (possibly) add to this is that for a legitimate statistical test you would have to state your hypothesis clearly before carrying out the test, otherwise you may well be just p-hacking.

You also need a reliable source for your data.

Both of these seem possible.

You have to be careful with this stuff though see the cases of Sally Clark, or Lucia de Berk for instance.

Wasn't Ball_Sup (Phil) a professional statistician? If so, I wonder what he makes of all this.
 
Ned the Donkey said:
I was wondering about this over the weekend. It seems like it's gone beyond bad luck now and I'dve thought it should be amenable to pretty basic statistical analysis.

The only thing I can (possibly) add to this is that for a legitimate statistical test you would have to state your hypothesis clearly before carrying out the test, otherwise you may well be just p-hacking.

You also need a reliable source for your data.

Both of these seem possible.

You have to be careful with this stuff though see the cases of Sally Clark, or Lucia de Berk for instance.

Wasn't Ball_Sup (Phil) a professional statistician? If so, I wonder what he makes of all this.
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Yep all very good points. If I was doing this 'properly' (i.e. being paid for it) I'd want to collect data from several years to see the average injuries on a given day per team to be more accurate. I'd also want to see which injuries happened on the pitch compared to in training, which happened as a result of an opposition player, types of injuries, average time out per injury type, etc, etc to see if any of that suggested our training regime was to blame rather than bad luck.

As it is, I got data for only one day taking none of the above into account only when our number of injuries already seemed high enough for us to pay attention to it.

Hopefully the club have someone that can get access to that data to see if there really is something that needs changing in the training regime
 

Ned the Donkey said:
I was wondering about this over the weekend. It seems like it's gone beyond bad luck now and I'dve thought it should be amenable to pretty basic statistical analysis.

The only thing I can (possibly) add to this is that for a legitimate statistical test you would have to state your hypothesis clearly before carrying out the test, otherwise you may well be just p-hacking.

You also need a reliable source for your data.

Both of these seem possible.

You have to be careful with this stuff though see the cases of Sally Clark, or Lucia de Berk for instance.

Wasn't Ball_Sup (Phil) a professional statistician? If so, I wonder what he makes of all this.
Click to expand...

The only excuse the club has regarding bad luck is the illnesses. Anel and Arblaster and now Jebbison.

S64 Blade said:
Preston. They had a lot of injuries when he was there, apparently. Could just be a coincidence though as I’m sure we were getting a lot before he joined.
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Not at the rate we are since Hecky took over. This thread is over a year old but was started well into Hecky's time here.
 
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