Just for you, WSM:
How The Blades Won League One
At the start of the season, I looked at the team, qualities required to win League One, based on data from the past ten years. With the contest over, here is my review of the 2017 title winners – Sheffield United.
For those of you who missed the original article, or if you’d like to revisit it, here is the link:
https://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/how-to-win-league-one.47446/
Previous finish
The Blades’ 11th placed finish in 2016 proved, once again, to be an indicator of future, League One glory, given that four of the previous five finished either 12th or 13th and five others in the previous ten years had suffered the ignominy of relegation in the season prior to triumphing. The evident need for radical change, in order to deliver a title challenge, seems a plausible rationale for this pattern.
A Settled Team
I looked at three constituents of a ‘settled team.’
Contributors: players starting 10 or more league games (6 or more for loan players and those signed in January transfer window). Winners average:
16.7
In general terms, the highest finishing teams used the lowest number of Contributors, thus reinforcing the idea of a settled team being a key factor in success. If Jay O Shea starts at least 1 of the final 3 games,
The Blades, will have used a paltry
15 Contributors – a number bettered only by Bristol City (13) in the previous decade.
Starters: total number of players starting a league game. Winners average:
25.7
A similar pattern applies with Starters, with League One Winners utilising fewer players than their less successful competitors. With 3 games remaining
The Blades are once again on trend with
25Starters.
Regulars: percentage of players starting at least 75% of league games. Winners average:
6.7
Our final constituent of a ‘settled team’ concerns the number of Regulars, where we identified the importance of a strong core of players, capable of starting a minimum of 75% of league games. Yet again,
The Blades out performed the ten-year average, with
9 Regulars (Moore, Freeman, Lafferty, O’Connell, Basham, Coutts, Fleck, Duffy and Sharp), equalling the impressive, previous best recorded by Norwich in 2010.
Winning League One requires a settled team drawn from a relatively small squad, including loans, of approximately 26 players. Within this squad, a smaller number (around 16) is required to start at least 10 games and within this smaller group is a core of at least 6-7 players who, barring minor injuries and suspensions, need to appear week in, week out. Wilder’s Blades of 2016-17 provide, arguably, the best profile of a settled team in the last decade.
Age of squad. Winners average:
25.9
The 2017 League One Champions are a relatively senior bunch by comparison with previous winners, comprising an average age of
27.7.
Earlier analysis found this to be of limited significance given the lack of correlation found between average squad age and finishing position.
Permanent Signings
In considering the relevance of transfer fees in winning League One, I looked at the number of new Contributors introduced by winning teams in the summer before, and season of, triumph; whether the player was signed from a higher, lower or the same league; if a fee was payable and the age of the player signed.
Quantity of Contributors signed (permanent and loan): Winners average:
8.1
Wilder realised major surgery was needed to transform
The Blades from a team of under-performers to serious title contenders. Consequently, the
10 new Contributors he signed in two transfer windows was higher than the average for League One winners but still lower than Wigan and Charlton (both 11), in recent years.
He retained only one of predecessor, Adkins’s, signings – talismanic Captain, Billy Sharp. His decision to offer the Captain’s armband to Sharp appears, with hindsight, to have been a stroke of genius, given its galvanising effect on both player and team.
Most significantly, Wilder’s judgement in the transfer market proved incisive with only Hussey and Wilson failing to make their mark from his eleven permanent signings (Lavery was just beginning to show promise prior to his season-ending injury). All his remaining 8 signings are likely to have qualified as Contributors by the end of the season with Clarke requiring one more start to do so.
Some would argue, Wilder’s ability to transform the performances of existing players – Coutts and Freeman in particular – was akin to signing new, high quality players.
Fee or Free: Winner’s average:
Fee paid 2.7, Free 2.6
5 of Wilder’s permanent Contributors commanded a transfer fee with the other
3 joining as free transfers. With Fleck, Duffy and Wright on the free list, it would be difficult to argue that splashing the cash on a transfer fee is a pre-requisite to yielding a top performer.
Previous club of permanent signings: Winner’s average:
Higher league 2.1, Lower league 3.2
It was previously noted that Nigel Adkins had tried to buck the trend of previous League One winners by relying solely on signing older players from higher divisions. Of those signed by Adkins, only Billy Sharp avoided Wilder’s pre-season cull. The new manager took a more balanced approach in signing
5 players from higher league clubs and
6 from League One – a ratio more in keeping with previous winners.
Age of permanent signings: Winner’s average:
26.2
At an average age of
28, Wilder’s permanent signings were slightly older than average but nevertheless representative of players with plenty of experience and still at the peak of their powers.
Loan signings
To be considered a Contributor
, a loan signing needed a minimum of 6 starts and only loan signings who had made at least one start were considered within the base data.
Within the average of
4.4 loan players starting at least one game and
2.7 qualifying as Contributors there was wide variation between League One winners. At one extreme was Wolves who did not sign any loan players during their glory season, whilst at the other were Leicester and Brighton who signed 9. On average, loan players accounted for 10% of all starts during the winning season and whilst it wasn’t possible to identify an ideal number for loan usage it was noted that overuse lead to diminished performance, with relegated teams relying on loan players for 19% of all starts.
The average age of loan players was noted as being an average of 2 years younger than permanent signings –
25.9 v
24.0.
Wilder has been no less effective in the loan market, with Ebanks-Landell and Lafferty making a noteworthy impact on
The Blades’ outstanding season; Lafferty earning himself a permanent deal as a consequence.
His other signings – Chapman, Riley and O Shea - have had limited game time, although O Shea has scored 3 goals from 5 starts, to date.
Parent club
Wilder’s loan signings came primarily from the Premier League and Championship, just like every other League One winner from the previous ten years with the exception of Norwich.
Loan striker appearances/goals
Whilst some clubs, notably Wigan and Norwich, manage to find a goal-scoring striker from the loan market to help propel their title effort, it’s by no means critical and several, including Wilder’s Blades, have managed perfectly well without a single goal scored by a loan striker.
Goals from defence and midfield
Whilst having Billy Sharp in your team is, clearly, a goal scoring advantage, goals from defence and midfield are another essential element of a League One winning campaign. Previous winners averaged 35.6 goals from these areas and with three games remaining
The Blades have already smashed the average figure with their defenders and midfielders contributing 40.
Total Goals
An overall goals tally in excess of 80 is another important feature of finishing top of the pile with only two – Scunthorpe and Doncaster – succeeding with less (Billy Sharp scored 30 of Scunthorpe’s 73 league goals in their winning season).
With more inevitably to follow,
The Blades seem odds on to beat the average of 83.6.
Of similar note is the fact that 17 different players have contributed to this season’s tally.
Conclusion
The 2016-17 League One Champions represent a nigh on perfect profile of a table-topping team. The previous season’s abysmal 11th place finish prompted a change of manager and necessary churn of players.
Wilder relied on a squad of 25 players with an average age of 28. Impressively, 9 players qualified as Regulars by virtue of starting at least 34 league games. At 34%, the percentage of starts made by 25 and unders was lower than average and matched the lowest figure, recorded in the previous decade, by Norwich.
Goals aplenty flowed through Wilder’s team, from all areas, with defence and midfield comfortably surpassing the average of 36 recorded by the last ten League One winners.
Unlike most of his recent predecessors, Wilder was meticulous in his transfer dealings. His eleven permanent signings, with an average age of 28, arrived from a combination of League One and the higher leagues – as is the case for most League One winners. All bar Hussey and Wilson made a notable contribution, though Wilson’s season, like Clarke’s and Lavery’s was impeded by injuries.
Ebanks-Landell and Lafferty more than justified Wilder’s use of the loan market with the latter earning a permanent deal in the January window. Teams with aspirations of winning League One tend to shop upmarket for loan players and both Ethan and Daniel arrived from higher leagues; as did Chapman and Riley, who played lesser roles having had their initial loan, stays curtailed by injury.
Through his acumen in the transfer market and ability to get existing players to perform consistently to their optimum, Chris Wilder crafted a team with a never-say-die attitude, capable of scoring goals from all areas and winning games even after conceding the first goal.
The turnaround in his team’s fortunes reflected most positively on a manager who learned his trade through adversity, making best use of, often scant, resources.
The challenge ahead looks no less formidable with 2 of the previous 10 League One winners (Doncaster and Scunthorpe) being relegated the season after, Wigan likely to join them, and another, Bristol City, flirting with the drop before finishing 18th. The remainder fared comfortably, finishing mid table or better. Norwich, with a remarkably similar profile to
The Blades, achieved the extremely rare feat of back-to-back promotions, just like Bassett’s, 1990 Blades.
Coming soon: How to Win the Championship
#1The Bohemian,
Apr 15, 2017
