For those who have lost all hope

[Sheff de party]

The bookies are only offering 2/1 at best for us to stay up.

Yes they have us as favourites to go down, but roughly one in three times they think we’d stay up.

sorry, just looking for some good news and this is the best I’ve got.

 

[vas borbokis]

Thank you. I'm almost whelmed reading that. XD

 

[brownblade]

Good point. Similarly I keep looking for decent odds to bet on us staying up... And there aren't any. It's because we're only 6pts adrift despite a nightmare start.

Plus we'll hit a run of form and a run of luck. Hey they might even coincide.

 

[mattbianco1]

Hi, Mattbianco here,

 

[JPBrods]

This time last season 17th place had 10pts, not six.
Bournemouth were also level on 16 points with us, and ended up going down.
It's not impossible when you look at the table. So much could happen still. I just think that too much of what needs to happen is on us, not others, and clearly we aren't going to start playing anytime soon.

 

[Geordie Blade]

Not wishing to shatter the optimism, but bookies' odds are not a reflection of how likely they think something is to happen.

Firstly, they overstate the likelihood, so they can make a profit (so it's more likely to be one in four to stay up).

Secondly, the odds really reflect how much has been staked on that particular outcome, so that the bookies can manage their funds for all eventual outcomes. Possibly, quite a few optimistic people are gambling that we'll stay up, so the bookies are lowering their odds somewhat to tempt in some bets on the other side of their scale.

 

[Sheff de party]

Not wishing to shatter the optimism, but bookies' odds are not a reflection of how likely they think something is to happen.

Firstly, they overstate the likelihood, so they can make a profit (so it's more likely to be one in four to stay up).

Secondly, the odds really reflect how much has been staked on that particular outcome, so that the bookies can manage their funds for all eventual outcomes. Possibly, quite a few optimistic people are gambling that we'll stay up, so the bookies are lowering their odds somewhat to tempt in some bets on the other side of their scale.

 

[YES Blade]

The bookies are only offering 2/1 at best for us to stay up.

Yes they have us as favourites to go down, but roughly one in three times they think we’d stay up.

sorry, just looking for some good news and this is the best I’ve got.

So you bet your mortgage on us stay up then or what?

 

[Davalon]

True Blades throw their money away gambling

 

[Gimli]

When the fun stops. stop.

Does this mean we can stop playing our fixtures because it’s been at this stage for a long time...

 

[Tynemouth Blade]

View attachment 99876

You need to put your mobile on charge

 

[cooperblade]

Not wishing to shatter the optimism, but bookies' odds are not a reflection of how likely they think something is to happen.

Firstly, they overstate the likelihood, so they can make a profit (so it's more likely to be one in four to stay up).

Secondly, the odds really reflect how much has been staked on that particular outcome, so that the bookies can manage their funds for all eventual outcomes. Possibly, quite a few optimistic people are gambling that we'll stay up, so the bookies are lowering their odds somewhat to tempt in some bets on the other side of their scale.

Bet365 make us a 71% chance to go down (everyone else just copies them so it's usually best to look at their prices for football) which even without allowing for their margin means they'd expect us to stay up 3 times out of 10. Basically the experts don't think our relegation is anything like the foregone conclusion a lot of our fans do.

Your second point is true but won't be particularly relevant for this market which they'll take next to nothing on. On Betfair, there's been £450k matched on PL relegation. There's already been £250k matched on Brighton v Southampton and it doesn't kick off for 3 hours.

Even in a fairly niche market, prices don't last long if they're wrong so it's a reasonable assumption to say we've probably got a 30% chance of staying up.

 

[Geordie Blade]

Bet365 make us a 71% chance to go down (everyone else just copies them so it's usually best to look at their prices for football) which even without allowing for their margin means they'd expect us to stay up 3 times out of 10. Basically the experts don't think our relegation is anything like the foregone conclusion a lot of our fans do.

Your second point is true but won't be particularly relevant for this market which they'll take next to nothing on. On Betfair, there's been £450k matched on PL relegation. There's already been £250k matched on Brighton v Southampton and it doesn't kick off for 3 hours.

Even in a fairly niche market, prices don't last long if they're wrong so it's a reasonable assumption to say we've probably got a 30% chance of staying up.

Call it 25% and I'll agree with you

 

[Sheff de party]

So you bet your mortgage on us stay up then or what?

Haha. Hell no.

But we still might...