Expected Goals vs Reading

[HolmesfieldBlade]

Total dominance.

 

[DronnieBlade]

Unsure of how the values are created here. Suspect that there is an underlying human “opinion” somewhere in the mix.

But every picture tells a story

UTB

 

[Rusty view]

Total dominance.

That site does some good analysis.

Personally like the grid they do showing if the team are defensive or attacking and to what extent.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Explanation:
There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching the highlights. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as I can tell from the limited data available at this level).

There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines denoting the goals they actually scored.

 

[Bladeinleeds]

Unsure of how the values are created here. Suspect that there is an underlying human “opinion” somewhere in the mix.

But every picture tells a story

UTB

Don’t profess to be any kind of expert but I think what expected goals does is try and take out the judgement from the analysis.

Lots of different models but I think that what it is supposed to do its take the average outcome of every shot / from each location on a pitch and work out how often it results in a goal. That’s xG (expected goals) is then applied to the actual chances we created.

So if 90% of every shot from where billy scored from result in a goal - that adds .9 of a goal to our total zG.

What that map does show is we had far more chances than reading and it wasn’t till 70mins that they did anything at all really.

As the post above pointS out each jump in the graph is a shot - you can see a much bigger jump for sharps goal than coutts’ because coutts was a much harder chance from where he shot so is scored less frequently.

 

[Maidenhead]

Total dominance.

Total bollocks