Current point rate, where will we finish?

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Sheffsteel said:
Last season the prize money ranged from 150 million if you finished top and 100 million if you finished bottom of the League.
A mid table finish earned about 120 million.
Every single position higher up the table earns you more money......
so even if you know you’re staying up every game towards the end of the season is still really important.

Its quite amazing to think wining the EFL cup wins 500K prize money....winning the FA cup worth 2 million prize money.
Where as winning a single game at the end of the PL might move you up 2 or 3 places and be worth 10 million.
No wonder many PL show little interest in the cups....all the money comes from doing well in the PL.
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And this is why playing in Europa League could potentially lose the club money......... and it's supporters their wives (in my case)
 
Berkshire Blade said:
New tv deal this year and with
League positions having a higher % of money than ever before.

About 2 million quid extra for every higher league place.
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Actually thats changed a bit as well. The new foreign tv deal is worth more. Previously this used to be part of the shared evenly (£79.4m) but the base has not changed that is 20th place will still get £79.4m but each place above that now gets more.
 
MobileBlade said:
Actually thats changed a bit as well. The new foreign tv deal is worth more. Previously this used to be part of the shared evenly (£79.4m) but the base has not changed that is 20th place will still get £79.4m but each place above that now gets more.
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Yep. Last year it was about 1.7 mill extra per place. 2 is a guesstimate.
 
I don't know if you ll get 4th but I am almost sure that after the next 6 matches you ll be there or thereabouts. Next 6 matches, Palace (a), Bournemouth (h), Brighton (h), Villa (a), Norwich (h), Newcastle (a)... you are much better than all those teams in fact you ll be favourites even in away matches, check odds for Palace match. So lets imagine you ll win 5 out of 6, then there is a great possibility that you ll be ahead of wobbling Chelsea. Also remember Chesea still have to play Liverpool and City.
And then the run-in, Wolves and Chelsea at Bramall Lane. Again I am not saynig you ll get it or you are the favourites far from it but its definitely possible and I am sure Wilder also thinks is possible. Impossible is nothing esp fo this Blades team and this manager;)
 
anty75 said:
I don't know if you ll get 4th but I am almost sure that after the next 6 matches you ll be there or thereabouts. Next 6 matches, Palace (a), Bournemouth (h), Brighton (h), Villa (a), Norwich (h), Newcastle (a)... you are much better than all those teams in fact you ll be favourites even in away matches, check odds for Palace match. So lets imagine you ll win 5 out of 6, then there is a great possibility that you ll be ahead of wobbling Chelsea. Also remember Chesea still have to play Liverpool and City.
And then the run-in, Wolves and Chelsea at Bramall Lane. Again I am not saynig you ll get it or you are the favourites far from it but its definitely possible and I am sure Wilder also thinks is possible. Impossible is nothing esp fo this Blades team and this manager;)
Click to expand...


We’re pessimistic as a set of fans thanks to our historical penchant for messing things up when it matters - but I think we need to be looking up the table rather than down. Nobody is considering that Wolves, Spurs or Man U will be anywhere near relegation (rightly so) but so far this season they have all managed to accumulate a massive 1 point more than we have - we’ve played both of the top 2 twice, been away to Chelsea, Wolves and Spurs (and Arsenal) and yet still sit 1 point off 5th place.

As you say we have more winnable games coming up - some of us have got a bit negative recently because we’ve lost a couple of games (against the current champions and future champions I might add).

I think we’ll finish where we are now - 8th but we will give it a great go at getting Europe.
 
anty75 said:
I don't know if you ll get 4th but I am almost sure that after the next 6 matches you ll be there or thereabouts. Next 6 matches, Palace (a), Bournemouth (h), Brighton (h), Villa (a), Norwich (h), Newcastle (a)... you are much better than all those teams in fact you ll be favourites even in away matches, check odds for Palace match. So lets imagine you ll win 5 out of 6, then there is a great possibility that you ll be ahead of wobbling Chelsea. Also remember Chesea still have to play Liverpool and City.
And then the run-in, Wolves and Chelsea at Bramall Lane. Again I am not saynig you ll get it or you are the favourites far from it but its definitely possible and I am sure Wilder also thinks is possible. Impossible is nothing esp fo this Blades team and this manager;)
Click to expand...

I love your enthusiasm anty75 but there's just one fatal flaw in your argument - it is based on the assumption that it will be easier to pick up points against the likes of Bournemouth, Brighton, Villa, Norwich, Newcastle, than other teams that we've played. I'm sure most fans will be thinking the same, but I'm afraid that's not a given in football.

Take the games v Watford and Newcastle as examples. First time we played Watford at their place, Watford were absolute dross. The worst team in the Premiership by a mile back then. But we couldn't beat them. They'd improved under Pearson by the time we met them again on Boxing Day, but we still couldn't beat them. And Newcastle, they were pretty garbage as well, but they beat us 0-2 at home! Now we can go..."ah yes, but..." this, that and the other. But this is the whole point. There are lots of ifs and buts. Absolutely anything can happen when its 11 men v 11 men over just 90 minutes. A controversial refereeing decision, a sending off, a freak result...anything is possible.

I'm not looking at the next run of fixtures and taking anything for granted. I think every single one of those games will be hard and we'll have to be at our best to get points from them. I'd love to think, as you do, that we will win 5 out of 6 of those games - and I'm an optimist btw - but to me that is really pushing it. I'm confident we will win more than we lose out of those 6 games, but something like win 3, draw 2, lose 1, would be more realistic, imo.

Come on Blades, prove me wrong and prove Anty75 right - I'd love that!
 

dc_blade said:
I don’t think we’ll finish 4th or really even come close but we’re closer to Chelsea than we are to Bournemouth and have just come through our toughest part of the season relatively unscathed. To me it’s more hilarious that some are still fretting about relegation when we’re sitting in 8th and just one point off 5th!
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^^^this
Don't forget who our games in December have been against. There's no reason to think that our points per game % should not increase slightly towards the end of the season.
We won't be playing man city, Liverpool and Arsenal again this season.
 
robbiez666 said:
This. The concept of finishing 4th is hilarious.
Click to expand...

I've no idea why you think finishing 4th is a "concept" or why it's "hilarious". I've read it a few times and haven't got a clue what you're on about. 🤔 Anyhow...

Suffice to say, you think it's impossible that we'll finish 4th - but if we did, you'd piss yourself laughing. Fair enough! :tumbleweed:

What you having for tea tonight?
 
Gimli said:
We’re pessimistic as a set of fans thanks to our historical penchant for messing things up when it matters - but I think we need to be looking up the table rather than down. Nobody is considering that Wolves, Spurs or Man U will be anywhere near relegation (rightly so) but so far this season they have all managed to accumulate a massive 1 point more than we have - we’ve played both of the top 2 twice, been away to Chelsea, Wolves and Spurs (and Arsenal) and yet still sit 1 point off 5th place.

As you say we have more winnable games coming up - some of us have got a bit negative recently because we’ve lost a couple of games (against the current champions and future champions I might add).

I think we’ll finish where we are now - 8th but we will give it a great go at getting Europe.
Click to expand...
Bladey bladeness 😂😂😂
 
Anywhere between 5th and 10th. Outside of that, in either direction is highly unlikely.

We will have mathematically secured survival by the end of February, which will finally put an end to any bedwetting on that topic, and then it's about how consistent we can be on the run in.
 
Wilder around a year ago when questioned if we’d see the job out and get promotion said something along the lines of: ‘its about time the fans started believing in this team. This isn’t the sheff utd of old, we are committed and have high standards and meet them’. I’m paraphrasing but he was right. We didn’t bottle it. We smashed it. Overcame adversity and knockbacks and injuries. Were unfancied, were the underdogs, went to Leeds away, wba away, got on with it. Got promoted. Look how strongly we’ve finished seasons under wilder. He’s a different breed. We’ve not lost back to back games (Man City and liverpool aside) in fucking ages. If there’s a problem, it’s solved very quickly. If someone drops below the standards, they either get back up to standard or you don’t see them again. If the system isn’t working it’s tweaked and it works again. He won’t look at the next 14 games he will look at the next one and win it. Then the next one. Then the one after that. Based on that fact, we will win more than we’ll lose and accumulate enough points to finish really highly. Can you actually imagine a reality where Chris wilder will allow us to lose enough games to get us relegated without fixing the problem? I doubt we’ve lost 14 games since he took over and people are debating the fact we may lose 14 out of 14 and go down? You’ve not been paying attention.
 
SellyOakBlade said:
Well this gives us a less than 1% chance of going down..

View attachment 69288

For context, this is what they were projecting at the start of the season

View attachment 69290

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

And how it works: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/
Click to expand...

That table from the beginning of the season is very accurate. There are only two real outliers, Us and Liverpool :-)
 
What that projection does show is that you may very well need 40 points to be sure of avoiding relegation - no one is staying up with 35/36 this year...
 
Found this very posh graphical representation of where we'll finish which has been updated for Norwich result... Suggesting most likely position is 6th...

& Unbeliavably it now says we have a 29.7% chance of Champions league -

Premier League Title Chances - Sports Club Stats

Premier title odds, and who you should root for today.
www.sportsclubstats.com www.sportsclubstats.com
 
anty75 said:
I don't know if you ll get 4th but I am almost sure that after the next 6 matches you ll be there or thereabouts. Next 6 matches, Palace (a), Bournemouth (h), Brighton (h), Villa (a), Norwich (h), Newcastle (a)... you are much better than all those teams in fact you ll be favourites even in away matches, check odds for Palace match. So lets imagine you ll win 5 out of 6, then there is a great possibility that you ll be ahead of wobbling Chelsea. Also remember Chesea still have to play Liverpool and City.
And then the run-in, Wolves and Chelsea at Bramall Lane. Again I am not saynig you ll get it or you are the favourites far from it but its definitely possible and I am sure Wilder also thinks is possible. Impossible is nothing esp fo this Blades team and this manager;)
Click to expand...

Well interestingly, still pretty much on target with this view, having played Palace, Bournemouth, Brighton and Norwich and only dropped 2 points.

Also the calculation used in the OP now yields a finish total of over 58 points!

UTB
 
RealMcCoy said:
Well interestingly, still pretty much on target with this view, having played Palace, Bournemouth, Brighton and Norwich and only dropped 2 points.

Also the calculation used in the OP now yields a finish total of over 58 points!

UTB
Click to expand...
If we keep up the point rate and finish with 58 that would have given a seventh finish last year and a place in Europa competition. Still a long way to go and one match at a time but we all trust this set of players to give there all so it won't be through lack of trying.
 

Especially if Moose comes back into form now his heads straight!
 
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