Championship Projections

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Think 79% chance of finishing top 2 is quite low.
They think there's a 1 in 5 chance we'll fail.

I'd put our chances of autos at being over 90%
So there's a 1 in 10 chance of failure.

They also have Burnley chances of autos as basically guaranteed promotion (much better than us)
when they are only a few points above with a lot less experience.
 
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Dave Robinson said:
Wonder what's the probability of not achieving automatic promotion?
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21%, so that's 1 in 5 chance of us not being auto promoted.

Don't think the table is very scientific, they have Watford as being the favourites to pip us
however they are just acquired a massive injury list, so will likely struggle over the next month.

Where as we have already has our bad luck with a shocking injury list and we coped fine.
 
Boro and WBA have excellent momentum now. They’ll both be eyeing the autos for sure.
 
ISZA ⚔️ said:
Boro and WBA have excellent momentum now. They’ll both be eyeing the autos for sure.
Click to expand...

Their fans might be eying top 2 but history shows they have little chance because it rarely ever happens.

Just because Boro have won 6 out of their last 7....doesn't mean they'll repeat it and again win 6 of their next 7 matches..
If you look at teams that have had a similar runs...then statistically Boro are now likely to stall.
Not even Man City are able to play well every game, it's impossible.

Same with West Brom, unfortunately for those 2 they've started too far behind...giving everyone a head start.
It's not just about those 2 closing the gap but once done then being able to maintain it.

Both have a good chance of play-offs but to finish top 2, they need to have run similar to when Reading ended up with 106 points.
Alternatively both could hit promotion form and could still pip us to the top 2 BUT ONLY if we now hit relegation form.

Statistically we should end up in the autos (top 2) even with mid table form, winning a few, drawing a few and losing a few.
 
Sheffsteel said:
Think 79% chance of finishing top 2 is quite low.
They think there's a 1 in 5 chance we'll fail.

I'd put our chances of autos at being over 90%
So there's a 1 in 10 chance of failure.

They also have Burnley chances of autos as basically guaranteed promotion (much better than us)
when they are only a few points above with a lot less experience.
Click to expand...

Sheffsteel said:
21%, so that's 1 in 5 chance of us not being auto promoted.

Don't think the table is very scientific, they have Watford as being the favourites to pip us
however they are just acquired a massive injury list, so will likely struggle over the next month.

Where as we have already has our bad luck with a shocking injury list and we coped fine.
Click to expand...

I think the odds are fair.
Burnley are 5 points ahead of us with better GD, which is a considerable gap.
They're 14 ahead of 3rd with an insurmountable GD.

We have 10 injuries already and are starting to accumulate them every game again.
When that happened last time we went on a winless run of about 7 games.

Nottingham Forest amassed 43 points from their final 20 games last season. If Middlesbrough, Watford or West Brom manage the same then we would need about 84/85 points to be guaranteed promotion.
That would mean we would need 34 more points, equivalent to 1.7 points per game, which over a season would get you 78 points.
In other words, we need to maintain decent play-off form to be guaranteed top two.

Achievable, if we can (1) keep the squad together and (2) have the majority fit & available most weeks. But there are question marks on both those factors, as we know...
 



CaptainMorgans said:
I think the odds are fair.
Burnley are 5 points ahead of us with better GD, which is a considerable gap.
They're 14 ahead of 3rd with an insurmountable GD.

We have 10 injuries already and are starting to accumulate them every game again.
When that happened last time we went on a winless run of about 7 games.

Nottingham Forest amassed 43 points from their final 20 games last season. If Middlesbrough, Watford or West Brom manage the same then we would need about 84/85 points to be guaranteed promotion.
That would mean we would need 34 more points, equivalent to 1.7 points per game, which over a season would get you 78 points.
In other words, we need to maintain decent play-off form to be guaranteed top two.

Achievable, if we can (1) keep the squad together and (2) have the majority fit & available most weeks. But there are question marks on both those factors, as we know...
Click to expand...
Watched boro a couole of times and they are no great shakes ,their run wont last
 
Wapping Blade said:
West Brom potentially in trouble.

Click to expand...

There are a few clubs in trouble. They’re still struggling after the Covid losses. We should be drawing up two lists of players who are out of contract at the various struggling clubs, one for if we go up and one for if we don’t, and scouting them again, doing background checks etc. There could be some decent players available next season.
 
So many new member posts appearing again....Bandwagon 2! Where have they been?
 
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Frank the tank said:
Watched boro a couole of times and they are no great shakes ,their run wont last
Click to expand...

I'll be shocked if there isn't one bolter from the pack and they look the best bets.

XG modelling (up to you whether you buy into it) has had them as one of the league's best all season, even under Wilder.
They've got a new manager, winning every week, and seemingly have a few quid to spend in January (Tavernier and Spence sales).
Barlaser in CM and a decent striker (rumoured to be in for Ross Stewart or Cameron Archer) will strengthen them further.
 
Heard one of West brom fans on TS and it sounds like they are in a real mess if they don't go up this season, think they said there has been 3 loans taken out by owners that they know off
 
Sheffsteel said:
Their fans might be eying top 2 but history shows they have little chance because it rarely ever happens.

Just because Boro have won 6 out of their last 7....doesn't mean they'll repeat it and again win 6 of their next 7 matches..
If you look at teams that have had a similar runs...then statistically Boro are now likely to stall.
Not even Man City are able to play well every game, it's impossible.

Same with West Brom, unfortunately for those 2 they've started too far behind...giving everyone a head start.
It's not just about those 2 closing the gap but once done then being able to maintain it.

Both have a good chance of play-offs but to finish top 2, they need to have run similar to when Reading ended up with 106 points.
Alternatively both could hit promotion form and could still pip us to the top 2 BUT ONLY if we now hit relegation form.

Statistically we should end up in the autos (top 2) even with mid table form, winning a few, drawing a few and losing a few.
Click to expand...
Disagree.
Win 7 draw 7 and lose 6 gives us 79 points.
Not enough if just one rival hits 2ppg from now on.
Just remember two things.
Our propensity for fucking up.
Dem football Gods.
 
If you want a Championship projection, here's a belter from the Sunderland Echo. Sheffield United finish 3rd with 78 points, but win the play-offs beating Burnley in the final! We got 76 points! A point a game for the rest of the season! At least they gave you 27!

www.sunderlandecho.com

Where Sunderland, Sheffield United, Middlesbrough & Co will finish in the Championship - according to Football Manager

This is what Football Manager 2023 is predicting the Championship table will look like when it comes to its conclusion in May.
www.sunderlandecho.com www.sunderlandecho.com

I hope they've got it wrong. 🤣
 
we (boro) have been playing well. we struggled for a few games after the wc break. we seemed a little rusty. but we won 2 and lost 1. we have improved our form slowly again. but the main thing, we have kept winning. we are grinding teams down. everyone we play seem knackered in the second half against us.

automatic promotion is a total pipe dream in reality. like mentioned we would need to win another several in a row and hope your form drops off a cliff. thats just to catch up to you. then we have to maintain better form after we caught you. its very unlikely isnt it.

what is more likely than your form dipping drastically is our form staying high like a 2.5ppg. whats that like us getting 84 points(then hope you guys have a dodgy run at some point). that would be some achievement. but not impossible. the league is full of rubbish, its actually terrible isnt it. any half decent team will win all the time. which is why burnley and blades will be top 2. we might finish 3rd but that means nothing. play offs are a nightmare. i went to the last final vs norwich. we didnt turn up at all. it was horrible. really hope we dont suffer the play offs again. but its pretty likely our best case scenario for end of season.

i think the play off teams will probably be us then depending on the next couple of months watford norwich and was going to say west brom. but with them in a financial state. it could ruin their momentum. i'd expect norwich to get themselves together with a new manager coming in(the right one). watford seem to get a bit lucky.
 



i actually said on our forum (oneboro) that catching the play off teams would take most of the season. how wrong was i only took 2 months to close the 11 point gap i think it was at the time.
now we are 12 points off auto's. different ball game now though lol. when carrick took over we were 16 points off second place. interestingly we were 12 points off sheff utd and remain 12 points off now. hopefully we win most games before we play at the lane. and catch you up a bit. say if we beat you it would reduce the gap to say 4 points. just so its a bigger occassion. going into that game 15 points behind you. it will be demoralizing if we lost. haha
 
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