Can we get the points needed?

[Eckingtonian]

Can we get the 30 to 35 points needed to avoid the disaster of relegation?I have serious doubts we can.Your thoughts?

 

[bricktop]

I'm in the same mode of thinking as you.

I look at the mess the club is in at the moment, look at the number of teams who have stayed up after having 3+ managers during a season, look at the squad we have, and think we have got serious problems this season, and don't think we will stay up.

 

[ClarkeyBlade]

I'd say yes - I mean this is a league where anyone can beat anyone.

Yeah granted we haven't pulled up any trees this season ourselves but I can’t see why we wouldn’t be able to put a run together IF we can get some sort of heart & discipline back into the team and hopefully this is what the new manager will bring with him. (A change of culture behind the scenes as the current one is not any good as we have seen).
January is around the corner, and hopefully the new manager will be able to get rid of some of the deadwood in the team and build on from there.

But ask me again at the end of January

 

[Deleted member 1486]

My biggest worry is that when ever I've wanted a rival team to go down, they've usually spent the entire season teasingly hovering just above the relegation places before getting relegated right at the end of the season, which always pleased me no end.

I just hope that what goes around doesn't come around.

 

[broomhillblade]

With a steady, and experienced, hand on the tiller we should be able to negotiate any storms and sail into the calmer waters of mid-table.

(That's barring an appalling run of injuries, and dodgy refs of course)

 

[Large Mendonca]

With a steady, and experienced, hand on the tiller we should be able to negotiate any storms and sail into the calmer waters of mid-table.

(That's barring an appalling run of injuries, and dodgy refs of course)

.....and that's why this next managerial appointment could be the most important one for a generation. Get it wrong and we could be in the doldrums for years, if we're not there already......

 

[ClarkeyBlade]

Hopefully we are at our worst at the moment and the only way is forward upon appointment of the new manager......but this depends on who is appointed as the new manager as you have quite rightly pointed out Large Mendonca

 

[Paulus]

I've been worried about relegation from the start of the season and after the Bristol City match I pretty much resigned myself to the fact that we would be going down. You're right a new manager can change things around but quite frankly I think he's going to have to be a miracle worker to see us safe.

 

[DuncDisorderly]

... I think he's going to have to be a miracle worker to see us safe.

Really?

We've got 22 points from 20 games (1.1 points per game).

If we continue to accrue points at this rate we will have 46 games x 1.1 (rounded) = 51 points.

As the acknowledged 'safe line' is, lets say 55 points to be properly safe, then we need to improve the return of points from 29 (our current rate) to 33 points which = 1.27 points per game. Which, by my reckoning is just a 14% improvement in points return.

In my view this is easily attainable. I accept that supporters not so positive as myself will say that it is plausible that we can go the other way too, and we can of course, but I would still maintain that we simply require a modest improvement, not a miracle...

 

[raul]

AS of yesterday, we have hope.

 

[Micalijo]

Never mid staying up, just remember a few years ago when Palace were in deep trouble, Dowie came along and they went up via play-offs. Surprised Duncs you aint been relaying this story to all and sundry in great detail.

 

[DuncDisorderly]

It has happened before, (only once as you point out. Keane did it with Sunderland but only by spending a lot of cash) so I think it is unlikely, but not impossible, that we can repeat it.

I think that we should concentrate on getting to the 55 points as quickly as possible for now and 'que sera sera' from there onwards...

 

[oldblade]

Really?

We've got 22 points from 20 games (1.1 points per game).

If we continue to accrue points at this rate we will have 46 games x 1.1 (rounded) = 51 points.

As the acknowledged 'safe line' is, lets say 55 points to be properly safe, then we need to improve the return of points from 29 (our current rate) to 33 points which = 1.27 points per game. Which, by my reckoning is just a 14% improvement in points return.

In my view this is easily attainable. I accept that supporters not so positive as myself will say that it is plausible that we can go the other way too, and we can of course, but I would still maintain that we simply require a modest improvement, not a miracle...

I think the safe total is 53 points. Noone has ever been relegated from this division with that many points. 52 is usually enough, but not always. Millwall and Leicester have been relegated on that many points.

As you point out, our current points per game ratio will leave us only a couple of points short of the required total. So, yes it is possible for us to acheive it. However, I wouldn't go so far as to say it's easily achievable. We're not making a very good fist of it at the moment.

But (hopefully) with the return of Williamson and Henderson, and (even more hopefully!!) with perhaps a couple of modest additions to the squad in January we should stand a chance.

However, I don't think it is possible to overstate the importance of the next managerial appointment. Get is right, as in 1999, and you're fortunes can change instantly. Get it wrong, as in 2007, then it doesn't matter if you've got the best squad in the division, you'll still struggle.

Anyway, I hope we are arithmetically safe before the start of play on the last day of the season. If we are not we will go down. We always do. Well, every time since 1967-8 season anyway!

 

[JohnDenver]

Never mid staying up, just remember a few years ago when Palace were in deep trouble, Dowie came along and they went up via play-offs. Surprised Duncs you aint been relaying this story to all and sundry in great detail.

Palace had a great side that year, full of youthful promise and pace. They utterly dicked us at bdtbl leaving me thinking that Dowie was incredibly lucky to inherit that side.

 

[Paulus]

Really?

We've got 22 points from 20 games (1.1 points per game).

If we continue to accrue points at this rate we will have 46 games x 1.1 (rounded) = 51 points.

As the acknowledged 'safe line' is, lets say 55 points to be properly safe, then we need to improve the return of points from 29 (our current rate) to 33 points which = 1.27 points per game. Which, by my reckoning is just a 14% improvement in points return.

In my view this is easily attainable. I accept that supporters not so positive as myself will say that it is plausible that we can go the other way too, and we can of course, but I would still maintain that we simply require a modest improvement, not a miracle...

I hope you are right DD but I really don't think it is as straightforward as you are suggesting, we have the look of relegation candidates about us, anyone playing us knows that if they can get a goal they are pobably going to get three points. This is what I posted after the Bristol game and I haven't managed to see us since to alter my opinion.

We don't have pace, power, height or guile in attack, the midfield has been out-battled on the last three occasions I have seen us play and the defence looks uncoordinated and porous. On top of that we have no depth of squad, an inexperienced manager, a power vacuum in the boardroom and no money to bring in reinforcements.
The bookies currently have us as fourth favourites for the drop only ahead of Scunthorpe, Palace and Preston. Out of those you suspect Scunthorpe will continue to grind out some results but will continue around the bottom of the table. I can't see Palace or Preston being as bad in the second half of the season as they have been in the first but to that list you might be able to add Millwall who are finding the step up a division hard going after a bright start. To me third bottom seems a real possibility and from where I sit relegation would be a disaster. The only positives I have felt recently is that the crowd seems to be reawakening after nearly being killed off by the desperate football of the previous regime. Hold on to your hats folks it's going to be a rough ride and may yet end in a crash landing.

Checking on the betting today we are still 4th favourites for the drop at 9/2. The only change happening is of course the loss of our inexperienced manager, if we get a new appointment right it might be a get out of jail free card, I hope so but the rest of the weaknesses remain. On the down side as well is the possibility now that whoever the board brings in will take a while to get going and that may put us further behind your notional 1.1 points per game average. Squeaky bum time I fear.

 

[DuncDisorderly]

...we have the look of relegation candidates about us.

...so do about six or seven other teams, pick the right manager and we wont be one of the threee...

 

[Highbury_Blade]

could go either way really, even if we get S(G)OD as manager....

 

[BornOnShorehamStreet]

But (hopefully) with the return of Williamson and Henderson, and (even more hopefully!!) with perhaps a couple of modest additions to the squad in January we should stand a chance.

I can't see them being fully ready, as in properly match fit, until early March if that

 

[bricktop]

Just looking at the next few fixtures it is hard to see where the points are coming from.

I think we are gonna be beaten on saturday by Swansea, draw with Hull boxing day, then its Norwich and Burnley away, two games i think we will struggle. Then Donny at home who will be more than up for it, and outclassed us in the last game.

By the 3rd of Janurary we could be rooted to the bottom.