BladesPod - Can we still make the playoffs?

[Beans]

Good afternoon, S24SU. The new episode BladesPod is live now, with a detailed look at many things including...

• Lee Evans' fine finishes (09:44)
• Could we replicate Millwall's success? (16:10)
• Can we still make the playoffs? (26:24)
• The difficulty of putting together a complete performance (33:22)
• Some tactical analysis, with a focus on Wilder's substitutions vs Boro and Millwall (38:00)
• A close look at Enda Stevens season and how he compares to others in the league (better than you may think!) (40:10)
• Whether our attack really has been less effective since Coutts' injury (49:52)
• Our form since Jan 1st - hat-tip to Roygbiv's thread on this one - and what it could mean going forward (55:20)

Strong recommend for Jay's piece on our attacking performance if you've not seen it - an in-depth and interesting breakdown, IMO.

Listen on SoundCloud:

or subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/bladespod/id1309198119?mt=2

As always, thank you very much for listening, and UTB!

 

[Nade]

Will check this out. Listened to the last two and really enjoyed them.

 

[BigBed]

No.

 

[JohnDenver]

First time I’ve listened and I’d recommend it.

 

[Dnblade]

Good listen that lads...not sure Evans goal tops Brown's though,considering it was a Derby and all that...great goal though...Agree on a lot of the points...Fleck at Barnsley and we were very good for about half an hour 2nd half...Enda gets stick,makes the odd mistake,but he's done a decent job for me overall,and agree I wouldn't swap the 2 Millwall lads for Sharp and Clarke,but need to look to bring in better next season.

 

[Rodley]

Edna gets some fearful stick.

 

[Hague Blade]

Can we? Yes, conceivably. Will we? Not a prayer.

 

[Beans]

Good listen that lads...not sure Evans goal tops Brown's though,considering it was a Derby and all that...great goal though...

Thanks Dnblade - certainly in terms of importance / impact, the Brown goal is the clear winner. Just personally think the technique for Evans' goal is better - he had to run onto a dropping ball whereas the ball was headed pretty much straight into Brown's path. In fact to quote the Sky commentator (yes I've watched this goal a lot ), "might fall favourably here for Brown--- ohhhhhh!"

Can we? Yes, conceivably. Will we? Not a prayer.

Well, bookies have us around 9/1 at the moment - that's only three times more unlikely than Donald Trump becoming president

 

[Nade]

Ooh while you're here, could one of you go into a bit more detail as to how gx is calculated? I thought i understood but the one of you suggested in this pod that it was different to beimg based on simply chances created.

If there are different tiers of chances (good/very good/sitter etc) that get fed into some kind of formula then id get that, but then id imagine all kinds of issues with defining them.

Anywau yeah, interested to hear that! Or just post a link if it's easier

 

[Beans]

Ooh while you're here, could one of you go into a bit more detail as to how gx is calculated? I thought i understood but the one of you suggested in this pod that it was different to beimg based on simply chances created.

If there are different tiers of chances (good/very good/sitter etc) that get fed into some kind of formula then id get that, but then id imagine all kinds of issues with defining them.

Anywau yeah, interested to hear that! Or just post a link if it's easier

I think that Experimental 361 has a good short-hand on it, if you want to take a read

In essence you've described it - using thousands of matches worth of data and shot location information, these models apply a value to how likely a shot is to result in a goal. Obvious example, Clarke's goal against Millwall (chance inside 6 yard box) will have a much higher xG than Evans' volley against Boro. A team's expected goals comes from adding all those chances together.

I'm no data scientist but I know that most people who measure these things freely admit that there differences / flaws from model-to-model - I think Stratabet count chances rather than shots (eg, if a player is one-on-one, but for some reason doesn't actually get a shot away, one model counts this whereas another less-sophisticated one may ignore it). It's also worth bearing in mind that the smaller the sample (eg, if you just look at one game), the less valuable the conclusion as you have to factor in the strength of opponent, quality of striker etc, which xG doesn't include. As with all stats it's just one more thing to look at to add a bit more detail to the game, and can be useful for showing you how someone is performing when compared to the average (for example, Clarke has scored more goals than his xG suggests, ie he has been an effective finisher over the course of the season).

 

[Roygbiv]

Excellent again and not just because I get a shout out

 

[Beans]

Cheers Roygbiv, high praise indeed

 

[JohnDenver]

Excellent again and not just because I get a shout out

Ah but did he pronounce your name correctly?

 

[Roygbiv]

Ah but did he pronounce your name correctly?

It's a challenging name to pronounce. I might change it to Bob

 

[JohnDenver]

It's a challenging name to pronounce. I might change it to Bob

Roygbob?

 

[Rodley]

Interesting that Stevens is a top 5 left wing back going forward in the Championship. He’s come up from League 2 and if he kicks on next year he will be some player!

 

[Jesus_was_a_Blade]

Good listen, cheers mate

 

[I should coco]

Very good again, as ever.

The stats on Enda surprise me and maybe make me think that myslef and a few others, are being a bit a bit harsh.

Similarly the fact that we are still getting as many crosses in seems wrong. We seem to do more 'faffing about' outside the box but maybe we are just taking longer to get them in.

Keep them going lads - a great Blades service!

 

[Beans]

Cheers ISC! Thanks for listening.

One clarification on Stevens - FAO Rodley as well on this - Jay hadn't run the numbers on literally every wingback in the division, he'd just plucked some of the more high-profile names for comparison. As it happens, Stevens' attacking numbers bear comparison with any of those names (and outstrip most of them). It may not be accurate to say he is a top 5 wingback from an attacking perspective, but based on that comparison you'd certainly think he'd be right up there.

 

[Bladesman]

No.

 

[Revolution]

Another enjoyable podcast.

I think the suggestion that Stevens might be a top 5 attacking wing back is the result of a certain amount of cherry picking.

Jay said that Stevens had put in 40 good quality crosses. He then said this stacks up well against Sessegnon, who has 51 has been playing further forward recently. My response to that is that Sessegnon has scored 14 league goals. Stevens has one. There was no mention of how other wing backs stack up here.

He also said that the lad from wolves has 14 assists. Again, Stevens is nowhere near this (although assists are of course heavily influenced by how bad your strikers are).

Plus cross percentage is one thing, but there are also opportunities to cross, and I have consistently watched Stevens get down the wing...and stop, and pass backwards, and no cross ever comes. Or when it does, the defence are ready.

I simply do not think that you can rate Stevens that highly on the basis of what appears to be one stat.

 

[hazzasufc_]

No

/thread

 

[Champagneblade]

Total surrender of a play off place.

1 point from Barnsley, Millwall and Birmingham after being ahead in all of them.

Sorry, but that’s garbage.