ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
I waited to post this until after the “North East smog-derby” result tonight so that my league table was up to date.
We picked up a very welcome 3 points at Derby on Saturday – although it was a bit of a grind.
I think that we are good enough to go up now, but we’re still a good way from being able to stay there!
So, moving on to the graphs, to keep reminding myself of the great position that we are in.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 61 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are 1 point ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My Autos benchmark is now for 92 points – so for now, analysing the remaining fixtures, we are nicely on target for 93 points, including allowing for the deduction, which should be more than enough for at least second place.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 61 points after 30 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 7 points ahead of the 54 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, level with Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So, we are still 7 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with the 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. The colours emphasise that the top few teams are almost in a different league from the majority. The pundits talk about a 4-horse race for automatics – personally I just think of it as a 3-horse race for 2nd. If Leeds fall apart then so much the better, but the gap to third is all that I care about. Saturday was good – getting 3 points ahead of boring Burnley, but tonight Boro let us down and the young Mackems are also just 3 points away in our rear-view mirror. Amazingly, it’s then 13 points back to Blackburn in 5th.
League Table:
Anyway, exciting times with the new signings: –
Hamza is my favourite, but then I loved the Werewolf back in the 70’s - with his big beard and his dark green velvet-covered Triumph Vitesse!!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
We picked up a very welcome 3 points at Derby on Saturday – although it was a bit of a grind.
- Hamza and Vini together closed the front door tight in front of the back 4. Hamza is going to be a really significant signing.
- Our lack of a dominant centre back was very clear, as Derby’s only real chances came from headers in the centre of the penalty area from good crosses. (As an aside, little Ben was delivering better quality crosses than we are seeing from any of our guys.)
- The game was won with the only bit of real quality, as Cannon dropped his shoulder and served it up on a plate for Big Ben. Another transfer window triumph.
- Anel repeated Alfie’s error against Hull by pushing a ball straight back up the middle – this time luckily unpunished, but please clear it wide!
I think that we are good enough to go up now, but we’re still a good way from being able to stay there!
So, moving on to the graphs, to keep reminding myself of the great position that we are in.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 61 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are 1 point ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My Autos benchmark is now for 92 points – so for now, analysing the remaining fixtures, we are nicely on target for 93 points, including allowing for the deduction, which should be more than enough for at least second place.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 61 points after 30 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 7 points ahead of the 54 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, level with Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So, we are still 7 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with the 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. The colours emphasise that the top few teams are almost in a different league from the majority. The pundits talk about a 4-horse race for automatics – personally I just think of it as a 3-horse race for 2nd. If Leeds fall apart then so much the better, but the gap to third is all that I care about. Saturday was good – getting 3 points ahead of boring Burnley, but tonight Boro let us down and the young Mackems are also just 3 points away in our rear-view mirror. Amazingly, it’s then 13 points back to Blackburn in 5th.
League Table:
Anyway, exciting times with the new signings: –
Hamza is my favourite, but then I loved the Werewolf back in the 70’s - with his big beard and his dark green velvet-covered Triumph Vitesse!!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
