ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Sitting at home in the warm today – so getting the post out early.
I get all the Championship XG stuff on Tuesday afternoon, so will post that before the Tuesday and Wednesday night games.
The Baggies match wasn’t a classic, but in crap weather, without our 2 first-choice CB’s, away to a Corberan team and going back to the top of the league - I’ll take it every day. The goals we conceded were a header that big Harry would have won and a fluke deflection, so not much to say there. Our goals were classic 2018 goals – left side round the back, get it across, pick up the scraps. I thought today was a perfect example of O Hare’s real value – he’s just a Duracell pest all over the pitch and hard to knock off the ball when in possession. To me it was also a game where JRS was a luxury we couldn’t afford. He loses possession too easily. It wasn’t really a game for Seriki either, Gilchrist would have been stronger – but there was no choice there. Amazingly, that was West Brom’s 10th draw in 11 games.
So, on to the graphs:-
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 39 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are still bang on my Autos Promotion schedule – and without the deduction we would be 2 points ahead – this schedule has a draw away at Miwaw on the day after Tuesday.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 39 points after 19 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 5 points ahead of the 34 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 4 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 6 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So this is still our best Championship start since 2005, and is still better than our last 2 promotion seasons – and that includes that deduction!
Graph 2:
I’ll repost my graph comparing this season with our best ever Level 2 Seasons when we reach half way - at 23 games but, as a trailer, we’re level 3rd at present alongside Bassett (89/90) and Freeman (52/53) and behind Warnock (05/06) and Harris (60/61).
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are once again loud and proud at the top of the pile. As everybody expected, Leeds, Burnley and Boro are our biggest threats.
League Table:
Before the start of the season, I posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season and Chart 1 reviews each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position.
Chart 1:
The big overperformers compared to my forecast are still Blackburn and Wendy and the biggest underperformers compared to my forecast are Hull, Luton and Coventry. Everybody else is within 6 places of my forecast. So I am expecting Blackburn and Wendy to slip down the table as the season progresses. Similarly, I’m expecting Hull, Luton and Coventry to work their way up the table over the coming weeks. We’ll see what XG says on Tuesday afternoon.
Our next game is on December 11th away at Millwall. They have scored 13 goals in their 9 home games and conceded 7. So, with our full defence back in place, the stats would probably suggest 1-1. I'll see what XG suggests on Tuesday.
So, another weekend ticked off, and next stop we aim to emulate Daniel in the Colosseum!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
I get all the Championship XG stuff on Tuesday afternoon, so will post that before the Tuesday and Wednesday night games.
The Baggies match wasn’t a classic, but in crap weather, without our 2 first-choice CB’s, away to a Corberan team and going back to the top of the league - I’ll take it every day. The goals we conceded were a header that big Harry would have won and a fluke deflection, so not much to say there. Our goals were classic 2018 goals – left side round the back, get it across, pick up the scraps. I thought today was a perfect example of O Hare’s real value – he’s just a Duracell pest all over the pitch and hard to knock off the ball when in possession. To me it was also a game where JRS was a luxury we couldn’t afford. He loses possession too easily. It wasn’t really a game for Seriki either, Gilchrist would have been stronger – but there was no choice there. Amazingly, that was West Brom’s 10th draw in 11 games.
So, on to the graphs:-
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 39 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are still bang on my Autos Promotion schedule – and without the deduction we would be 2 points ahead – this schedule has a draw away at Miwaw on the day after Tuesday.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 39 points after 19 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 5 points ahead of the 34 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 4 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 6 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So this is still our best Championship start since 2005, and is still better than our last 2 promotion seasons – and that includes that deduction!
Graph 2:
I’ll repost my graph comparing this season with our best ever Level 2 Seasons when we reach half way - at 23 games but, as a trailer, we’re level 3rd at present alongside Bassett (89/90) and Freeman (52/53) and behind Warnock (05/06) and Harris (60/61).
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are once again loud and proud at the top of the pile. As everybody expected, Leeds, Burnley and Boro are our biggest threats.
League Table:
Before the start of the season, I posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season and Chart 1 reviews each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position.
Chart 1:
The big overperformers compared to my forecast are still Blackburn and Wendy and the biggest underperformers compared to my forecast are Hull, Luton and Coventry. Everybody else is within 6 places of my forecast. So I am expecting Blackburn and Wendy to slip down the table as the season progresses. Similarly, I’m expecting Hull, Luton and Coventry to work their way up the table over the coming weeks. We’ll see what XG says on Tuesday afternoon.
Our next game is on December 11th away at Millwall. They have scored 13 goals in their 9 home games and conceded 7. So, with our full defence back in place, the stats would probably suggest 1-1. I'll see what XG suggests on Tuesday.
So, another weekend ticked off, and next stop we aim to emulate Daniel in the Colosseum!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
