At No Point in History

[Foody]

Like a lot of Blade's this evening I'm suddenly finding myself concerned about the threat of relegation. Zero points from the first three suddenly feels like a death sentence, so I found myself digging into the metaphorical history books in search of a crumb of comfort. I have been looking through the previous 10 seasons and looked at all the teams who registered zilch after three games and looked at where they subsequently finished.
Here is the breakdown.

Year	Team	Final Position	Points	Relegated
19/20	Watford	19th	34	Yes
18/19	West Ham	10th	52	No
17/18	Bournemouth	12th	44	No
17/18	Crystal Palace	11th	44	No
17/18	West Ham	13th	42	No
12/13	Southampton	14th	41	No
11/12	West Brom	10th	47	No
11/12	Blackburn	19th	31	Yes
10/11	Stoke	13th	46	No
10/11	West Ham	11th	47	No

* 13/14-16/17 No teams lost all 3 openers

So the statistics say that: of the 10 team to lose the first 3 games , only 2 were relegated (20%), the average league finish was 13th and the average points total was 43.

In summary then, yes we need to improve and yes we have every right to be concerned, but not only would avoiding relegation not require some miraculous turn around, it would be statistically normal. We can certainly take comfort in the fact several teams have been where we are now (for West Ham it's becoming a habit) and not only have they gone on to survive, but they've gone on to be nowhere near relegation and finish midtable (10th with 52 points being the highest).

UTB

 

[SteveBlade]

 

[BobblesBlade]

You never know which way it will go but the longer you don’t score goals the more confidence is drained.
our defence was our king last season but the loss of JackO is a huge problem.

 

[1987]

A 1 in 5 chance of going down. Doesn't seem a bad strategy to me.

 

[Foody]

Oh and before anyone mentions it, yes I do need to get out more. I blame working from home.

 

[DronnieBlade]

17th would be just fine this season.

Just fine.

UTB

 

[Bladesman]

Like a lot of Blade's this evening I'm suddenly finding myself concerned about the threat of relegation. Zero points from the first three suddenly feels like a death sentence, so I found myself digging into the metaphorical history books in search of a crumb of comfort. I have been looking through the previous 10 seasons and looked at all the teams who registered zilch after three games and looked at where they subsequently finished.
Here is the breakdown.

Year	Team	Final Position	Points	Relegated
19/20	Watford	19th	34	Yes
18/19	West Ham	10th	52	No
17/18	Bournemouth	12th	44	No
17/18	Crystal Palace	11th	44	No
17/18	West Ham	13th	42	No
12/13	Southampton	14th	41	No
11/12	West Brom	10th	47	No
11/12	Blackburn	19th	31	Yes
10/11	Stoke	13th	46	No
10/11	West Ham	11th	47	No

* 13/14-16/17 No teams lost all 3 openers

So the statistics say that: of the 10 team to lose the first 3 games , only 2 were relegated (20%), the average league finish was 13th and the average points total was 43.

In summary then, yes we need to improve and yes we have every right to be concerned, but not only would avoiding relegation not require some miraculous turn around, it would be statistically normal. We can certainly take comfort in the fact several teams have been where we are now (for West Ham it's becoming a habit) and not only have they gone on to survive, but they've gone on to be nowhere near relegation and finish midtable (10th with 52 points being the highest).

UTB

 

[BladesOnToast]

Like a lot of Blade's this evening I'm suddenly finding myself concerned about the threat of relegation. Zero points from the first three suddenly feels like a death sentence, so I found myself digging into the metaphorical history books in search of a crumb of comfort. I have been looking through the previous 10 seasons and looked at all the teams who registered zilch after three games and looked at where they subsequently finished.
Here is the breakdown.

Year	Team	Final Position	Points	Relegated
19/20	Watford	19th	34	Yes
18/19	West Ham	10th	52	No
17/18	Bournemouth	12th	44	No
17/18	Crystal Palace	11th	44	No
17/18	West Ham	13th	42	No
12/13	Southampton	14th	41	No
11/12	West Brom	10th	47	No
11/12	Blackburn	19th	31	Yes
10/11	Stoke	13th	46	No
10/11	West Ham	11th	47	No

* 13/14-16/17 No teams lost all 3 openers

So the statistics say that: of the 10 team to lose the first 3 games , only 2 were relegated (20%), the average league finish was 13th and the average points total was 43.

In summary then, yes we need to improve and yes we have every right to be concerned, but not only would avoiding relegation not require some miraculous turn around, it would be statistically normal. We can certainly take comfort in the fact several teams have been where we are now (for West Ham it's becoming a habit) and not only have they gone on to survive, but they've gone on to be nowhere near relegation and finish midtable (10th with 52 points being the highest).

UTB

Good post. We lost the first five games in the second tier in 1995-96, and finished 9th. Mind you this did involve the resignation of a widely adored, club legend manager, so perhaps not a great one to dredge up.

 

[true99blade]

These facts will upset a few on here.

 

[robbiez666]

We should not forget that we have 8 more points than a certain other team round here.

 

[Roygbiv]

The only thing that's really concerning me about being bottom is the run of games coming up. I don't see any real chance of us not being bottom after 8 games then it becomes harder to claw back the points.

It's certainly not game over though even if we are bottom. We need about 9 wins and 9 draws in the next 35 games. That's what we should be looking at, not the table right now

 

[blade too long]

Still only 3 points behind man city who are 9th. And we have.nt shipped 5 goals at home like they have

 

[blade too long]

We should not forget that we have 8 more points than a certain other team round here.

They are only 17 points behind an automatic spot with only 43 games left

Like us they haven't scored in their last 3 games.
Unlike us they are bottom because they are shite

 

[Superblades]

We should not forget that we have 8 more points than a certain other team round here.

I really couldn’t give a shit about them. Different league. If we are basing our success on how they do in a lower league then we are really setting our standards low.

 

[Foody]

The only thing that's really concerning me about being bottom is the run of games coming up. I don't see any real chance of us not being bottom after 8 games then it becomes harder to claw back the points.

It's certainly not game over though even if we are bottom. We need about 9 wins and 9 draws in the next 35 games. That's what we should be looking at, not the table right now

I'm inclined to agree with that, being on no more than 3 points by the 21st on November seems a distinct possibility. Beating Fulham is absolutely crucial and hopefully we'll pick up an unexpected point or so elsewhere. After that we go to a much more normal run of fixtures where we can pick up points.

When you look at today and the Villa game they're the sort of matches we scraped a win in last season. Across the season though I'm sure we'll pick up plenty of points in similar sorts of games.

 

[stringjunior]

History is meaningless in this context. We'll survive or not based on what we do for the next 35 games. What happened in nineteen ninety something can have absolutely no impact on it.

 

[Foody]

History is meaningless in this context. We'll survive or not based on what we do for the next 35 games. What happened in nineteen ninety something can have absolutely no impact on it.

No, but it does show that whilst the first three games aren't meaningless, a bad start isn't the death sentence we're all making it out to be. It's very rare a team is bottom all season. We can take a bit of comfort from that.

 

[Roygbiv]

I'm inclined to agree with that, being on no more than 3 points by the 21st on November seems a distinct possibility. Beating Fulham is absolutely crucial and hopefully we'll pick up an unexpected point or so elsewhere. After that we go to a much more normal run of fixtures where we can pick up points.

When you look at today and the Villa game they're the sort of matches we scraped a win in last season. Across the season though I'm sure we'll pick up plenty of points in similar sorts of games.

It's not the lack of points or even how far behind we are likely to be that worries me as there will still be enough points available to be ok , it's what being stranded at the bottom would do to our confidence

 

[BladesOnToast]

It's not the lack of points or even how far behind we are likely to be that worries me as there will still be enough points available to be ok , it's what being stranded at the bottom would do to our confidence

Or that it could lead to a something daft like a knee-jerk dismissal of one of the best managers this club has ever had.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Still only 3 points behind man city who are 9th. And we have.nt shipped 5 goals at home like they have

That’s correct, we just need to beat them and we catch up! Should be easy

 

[Latters]

The only thing that's really concerning me about being bottom is the run of games coming up. I don't see any real chance of us not being bottom after 8 games then it becomes harder to claw back the points.

It's certainly not game over though even if we are bottom. We need about 9 wins and 9 draws in the next 35 games. That's what we should be looking at, not the table right now

After getting arseholed against Newcastle and Man U nobody would have expected us to go and piss on Chelsea and Spurs, but we did. Hopefully the board take into account the change in circumstances (injuries to Mousse and O’Connell) and give Wilder the funds needed to replace both, whether permanently or on loan. Then, who knows what might happen. At least we know we’ve got character in the squad so it’s early to write us off from nicking an unexpected result or two.

A surprise win against one of the big teams could be just the morale boost we need to kick on again.

 

[Newbury Blade]

That’s correct, we just need to beat them and we catch up! Should be easy

Norwich beat them.

 

[Newbury Blade]

Norwich beat them.

Although thinking about it, perhaps not the best precedent.

 

[HolmesfieldBlade]

Suprised Derby aren’t on this table, they were absolutely awful that season.

 

[BladeFisher]

Like a lot of Blade's this evening I'm suddenly finding myself concerned about the threat of relegation. Zero points from the first three suddenly feels like a death sentence, so I found myself digging into the metaphorical history books in search of a crumb of comfort. I have been looking through the previous 10 seasons and looked at all the teams who registered zilch after three games and looked at where they subsequently finished.
Here is the breakdown.

Year	Team	Final Position	Points	Relegated
19/20	Watford	19th	34	Yes
18/19	West Ham	10th	52	No
17/18	Bournemouth	12th	44	No
17/18	Crystal Palace	11th	44	No
17/18	West Ham	13th	42	No
12/13	Southampton	14th	41	No
11/12	West Brom	10th	47	No
11/12	Blackburn	19th	31	Yes
10/11	Stoke	13th	46	No
10/11	West Ham	11th	47	No

* 13/14-16/17 No teams lost all 3 openers

So the statistics say that: of the 10 team to lose the first 3 games , only 2 were relegated (20%), the average league finish was 13th and the average points total was 43.

In summary then, yes we need to improve and yes we have every right to be concerned, but not only would avoiding relegation not require some miraculous turn around, it would be statistically normal. We can certainly take comfort in the fact several teams have been where we are now (for West Ham it's becoming a habit) and not only have they gone on to survive, but they've gone on to be nowhere near relegation and finish midtable (10th with 52 points being the highest).

UTB

Perhaps a more interesting stat is how many teams who hadn't scored any league goals after 3 games and who had lost their opening three games performed?

 

[Scarebus]

Suprised Derby aren’t on this table, they were absolutely awful that season.

They drew their first game of the season

 

[Bladezz]

We are a good mid table side on a dip it happens.
The whole goal scoring thing is becoming more mental a missed penalty / unbelievable saves / bad finishing / Unlucky (Robinson finish)

I got slated on here Ganged up on when I questioned recruitment.

Now all you lot have turned the back on our side.

 

[Foody]

Perhaps a more interesting stat is how many teams who hadn't scored any league goals after 3 games and who had lost their opening three games performed?

To be honest without going back further, the sample size would be way too small. All I can say is both relegated sides had scored.
I'm not really sure what difference it makes anyway, ultimately if you lose the first three you're either conceding too many or not scoring. Where the issue is doesn't make that much difference.

Frim a purely statistical point of view I'd say our xg is evidence that our lack of goal scoring won't continue. We sit 11th on expected goals (but that's with quite a few teams based on 2 game) , above Leeds. It's highly unlikely we'll continue in the vein, especially considering it's across the team that chances are being missed.

 

[mcbladeface]

Wolves getting dicked by west ham? City getting schooled at home by Leicester? It's starting to look like it's going to be a season with really weird results being pretty common. You watch, we'll lose to Fulham but somehow get 7 points out of Arsenal, Chelse and Man u

 

[BobblesBlade]

Time for a Christmas party??