Are we safe yet Dad?

[boss hog]

We have to go to both City and Liverpool, over a particularly busy period and we never rotate the squad. We will cop at least one hammering this season.

If our first XI were always fit and never tired, I would actually agree with you. But that's obviously not possible.

Liverpool have a hell of alot of fixtures to fulfill with a relatively small squad ,and city while good going forward are wide open at the back ,we may not get anything from those games but I don't think we'll get a coating either .

 

[BobblesBlade]

It will be - Sorry Blades your relegated.

bloody VAR

 

[moDtheGod]

The quality of backup players is far better for them than for us though.

Chelsea got filled in by Man Ure on the opening day. Wolves conceded 5 against Chelsea. If it can happen to sides like that, it can definitely happen to us.

 

[DaleHillBlade]

Conversely, the frightening thing is no team has beaten us, we've lost games due to odd mistakes./ VAR. Cut them out and once Didsy, calms down and finds his shooting boots Champion s league is not impossible.

Newcastle beat us using their horrible tactics. And I felt that the score against Leicester was a fair reflection (just).

The latter game was against a top quality side, the former was very disappointing.

And I think we will get at least a point from Manchester City and Liverpool at New Year. At least a point.

 

[Rollerball]

Can we still mathematically catch Sniverpool?
But seriously if we take points from those below us, like vs villa etc and especially the bottom 3 we have a much higher chance of not only survival but why not look above mid table or even Europe, small steps first, let's get safety first then see .
UTB.

 

[ShorehamRevolution]

If any team can fuck it up .........

Not now, the culture of that messing things up got thrown out the window the day wilder walked in.

 

[I should coco]

If there’s a meltdown because we lose to Liverpool and Man City we may as well change our name to Sheffield Deluded Bastards.

We can't.

That name is already registered to an S6 postcode by a mysterious Thai holding company.

 

[Bladepicker]

One resurgence wouldn't trouble the 38 point threshold.

There's also another team averaging exactly 1 point per game so two resurgences wouldn't be too much of an issue either.

I'm not saying that we are safe because with only 22 points we're obviously not, what I'm trying to ascertain is why people think 38 points is suddenly not going to be enough.

I get this any team can beat any other on any given day but when that happens one team also picks up no, nil, zero points towards their 38 point haul.

I will be interested to revisit this thread at the end of the season to see just how many resurgences have lifted the points required to >39

Agreed. In fact if everyone is taking points off everyone else, while it will be tighter it should mean less points needed to stay up, as you won't have a Derby, or Huddersfield where everyone takes 4 to 6 points off them to boost their totals.

No one really knows but I suspect people thinking we will need north of 40 points to stay up are doing so mainly from a pessimistic Bladey Blade (tm Pinchy) perspective.

 

[SittingontheBall]

I'm optimistic we will stay up as at the moment we are one of the better teams in the league (yes that's right one of the better teams in the premier league!). However with the run of fixtures after boxing day I'm predicting a few of the panicy, doom and gloom types to get themselves in a right state.

You’ve obviously not been in the Shoutbox on match day. Doesn’t take a run of fixtures, conceding a goal will do it!

 

[Blade56]

we would only need 5 wins from 19

That’s a win or two more than we managed in the first half of our PL season. Considering we all feel we have had a good first half we will have to be very consistent and the key to that is strengthening in JTW without over tinkering.

while it will be tighter it should mean less points needed to stay up,

or, it will go to the last game of the season like 12 years ago

 

[Pinchy]

Agreed. In fact if everyone is taking points off everyone else, while it will be tighter it should mean less points needed to stay up, as you won't have a Derby, or Huddersfield where everyone takes 4 to 6 points off them to boost their totals.

No one really knows but I suspect people thinking we will need north of 40 points to stay up are doing so mainly from a pessimistic Bladey Blade (tm Pinchy) perspective.

20/1 against relegation is the best you’ll get at the bookies. Anyone interested can have 25/1 with me. We’re staying up for sure.

This team is not Warnock’s team. We turn up home and away. Chalk and cheese. Wilder likes the Premier League, him.

 

[Cyprus Blade]

Staying up is the most important but every place higher up the table makes a significant difference to the amount of cash coming into the club. The formula is different this year but looking at last season Wolves got £127m for 7th, Southampton £104m for 16th.

 

[PokerBlade]

The only thing against us right now is the squad depth. We don't know yet how we'd look if we lost Baldock or Stevens. Take away Norwood or Fleck for a period of time. Or how would the defence look if say JOC were injured and Basham suspended. I think we have a squad where we can probably cover one position and be fine, but if we lost two or three of the starting line up then that could make us significantly weaker. Basically, I think our cover is better than the Coutts period, but not by a lot, and not enough for some of the tougher fixtures.

There's been three results that I think are slightly concerning. Watford away, Southampton and Newcastle at home. Those were the three where you'd have been looking at the start of the season and thinking were winnable games. So we're definitely capable of dropping points.

All that in mind, right now at least, Sheffield United are not in a relegation battle. We are comfortably mid-table and on the heels of fifth place, probably counting ourselves unlucky not to be higher. Wilder is yet again smashing the targets any fair minded person would've set for him. Two things come from that, one is that the longer you stay out of the fight the less likely it becomes you'll be in it or would lose it if you dropped there. The second is, is we can hold this position a little longer then we'll be able to go into the JTW in a strong position - not looking for desperation signings but able to take our pick and be a very attractive move for our targets. It's far better to be looking at ways you can make solid improvements than panicking about where to find a player that might pull off a rescue mission, and without fear of whether you can afford them a league lower.

Things are going great. Keep doing what we're doing and all you can say is that, if the worst were to somehow happen, it'll be something out of our control. I'm more than happy with that.

 

[BladeFisher]

If there’s a meltdown because we lose to Liverpool and Man City we may as well change our name to Sheffield Deluded Bastards.

Name's already been taken. Altered on grounds of decency to Sheffield Wednesday.

 

[S64 Blade]

I’d say if we can get 7 points by the end of the year, then we are as good as safe.

 

[norfolkblade]

If there’s a meltdown because we lose to Liverpool and Man City we may as well change our name to Sheffield Deluded Bastards.

Or Sheffield Wednesday, for short.

 

[Millhousesblade1889]

I’m glad I’m not the only one checking this every two minutes

 

[Pinchy]

The only thing against us right now is the squad depth. We don't know yet how we'd look if we lost Baldock or Stevens. Take away Norwood or Fleck for a period of time. Or how would the defence look if say JOC were injured and Basham suspended. I think we have a squad where we can probably cover one position and be fine, but if we lost two or three of the starting line up then that could make us significantly weaker. Basically, I think our cover is better than the Coutts period, but not by a lot, and not enough for some of the tougher fixtures.

There's been three results that I think are slightly concerning. Watford away, Southampton and Newcastle at home. Those were the three where you'd have been looking at the start of the season and thinking were winnable games. So we're definitely capable of dropping points.

All that in mind, right now at least, Sheffield United are not in a relegation battle. We are comfortably mid-table and on the heels of fifth place, probably counting ourselves unlucky not to be higher. Wilder is yet again smashing the targets any fair minded person would've set for him. Two things come from that, one is that the longer you stay out of the fight the less likely it becomes you'll be in it or would lose it if you dropped there. The second is, is we can hold this position a little longer then we'll be able to go into the JTW in a strong position - not looking for desperation signings but able to take our pick and be a very attractive move for our targets. It's far better to be looking at ways you can make solid improvements than panicking about where to find a player that might pull off a rescue mission, and without fear of whether you can afford them a league lower.

Things are going great. Keep doing what we're doing and all you can say is that, if the worst were to somehow happen, it'll be something out of our control. I'm more than happy with that.

Mo Besic produced an impressive cameo. Terrific Lunny style run followed by a near identical Lunny style run from Lunny...

 

[Need4speed]

I believe we will stay up this season. The common much quoted view is you need 40 points. However last season Southampton 39 points Brighton 36 points stayed up. However last year there were less draws than in any year in premier League history (18.5%). Therefore there were more points earned in total by the clubs. Currently there have been40 draws out of the 160 matches played, 25%, therefore less points earned in total by the clubs Surely if this continues less points will be needed to survive. However no one is a drift yet and there is only a 9 point gap from Southampton to Wolves. does the evening out of points make it more difficult to survive?

 

[BladeTillIDie]

I believe we will stay up this season. The common much quoted view is you need 40 points. However last season Southampton 39 points Brighton 36 points stayed up. However last year there were less draws than in any year in premier League history (18.5%). Therefore there were more points earned in total by the clubs. Currently there have been40 draws out of the 160 matches played, 25%, therefore less points earned in total by the clubs Surely if this continues less points will be needed to survive. However no one is a drift yet and there is only a 9 point gap from Southampton to Wolves. does the evening out of points make it more difficult to survive?

I always thought 38 was the magic number needed?

 

[Sheffsteel]

I believe we will stay up this season. The common much quoted view is you need 40 points. However last season Southampton 39 points Brighton 36 points stayed up. However last year there were less draws than in any year in premier League history (18.5%). Therefore there were more points earned in total by the clubs. Currently there have been40 draws out of the 160 matches played, 25%, therefore less points earned in total by the clubs Surely if this continues less points will be needed to survive. However no one is a drift yet and there is only a 9 point gap from Southampton to Wolves. does the evening out of points make it more difficult to survive?

When calculating an average points, it’s all down to whether it‘s mean, median or mode.
Think the key is how the available points are spread amongst the teams.
It’s unlikely to be such an even spread where loads of teams are on similar points, hence the magic number being really high.
You would expect that at least 3 teams are going to struggle.

 

[BushBlade]

When making predictions it’s important to appreciate no one can actually see into the future. No one can say with certainty precisely how many points we will need.

 

[Need4speed]

When calculating an average points, it’s all down to whether it‘s mean, median or mode.
Think the key is how the available points are spread amongst the teams.
It’s unlikely to be such an even spread where loads of teams are on similar points, hence the magic number being really high.
You would expect that at least 3 teams are going to struggle.

Is there a way of calculating how the spread this year compares to previous and is it any use

 

[BushBlade]

Here’s massive thread about it

Are we safe yet Dad?

I know I know, of course we are not but given we are on 22 points after just 16 games I thought I would check the average number of points needed to avoid relegation "since the league was cut to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points required to avoid the drop has been much lower than 40. Over...

www.s24su.com

 

[William]

I always thought 38 was the magic number needed?

I’ve always thought if any team was to go down with over 40 points it would be us, therefore 41 is a good number to aim for. 6 more wins and a draw.

 

[Beans]

I always thought 38 was the magic number needed?

 

[boss hog]

I believe we will stay up this season. The common much quoted view is you need 40 points. However last season Southampton 39 points Brighton 36 points stayed up. However last year there were less draws than in any year in premier League history (18.5%). Therefore there were more points earned in total by the clubs. Currently there have been40 draws out of the 160 matches played, 25%, therefore less points earned in total by the clubs Surely if this continues less points will be needed to survive. However no one is a drift yet and there is only a 9 point gap from Southampton to Wolves. does the evening out of points make it more difficult to survive?

When its a close league with plenty draws 9 points is a lot.

 

[DronnieBlade]

You need a healthy points deduction, say for foul play, in order to be mathematical certainties for L1.



UTB

 

[GrayBlade]

View attachment 66249

Yep, and people laughed at me at Old Trafford when I said the the ref not giving us a blatant penalty when Shelton was fouled could relegate us.

 

[GrayBlade]

I think we should just target 50 points minimum ‘cus this is United that we’re talking about. If there’s a way we’ll find it.