29 games left. We need an average 0.8 points per game.

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Presty said:
The best scenario in my mind would be to be looking all but secure in the table by mid/late January
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Didn't Warnock think that last time around and start signing players for the following season in January?! Didn't work out too well for us really.
 

snootyfenooty said:
To help you understand a little better the bottom three go down and the fourth from bottom stays up. So its no use quoting a load of figures on what the third from bottom have achieved over the last six seasons and what we have to do to beat them, its the fourth from bottom which counts and the points required to stay up have to exceed theirs. You'll get it eventually, don't worry.
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Sounds nonsense to me@ Snooty.

Get more points than 3 teams and you stay up surely. Too simple?!

Three go down now we are in the Prem.Snoots! Four grom L1!
 
God Blades are pessimistic I know I can be a POD but, even I'm looking to see how high we will finish I really don't see us going down, unless as someone says we have a collapse of biblical proportions. I said at start of season I was hopeful of a top ten finish and to get that would be brilliant, anything above that is a Brucie bonus.
 
Trigger Blade said:
Europa League I think. I had a similar thought yesterday, while still in the afterglow of Monday’s win.

This team really has the potential to win something, not just to be a losing semi-finalist. Admittedly, the defeat to Sunderland in the League Cup doesn’t exactly support that view, although that was more down to Chris wanting to protect his first team squad.

It may not be this season, but if we can establish ourselves and field strong sides, we could make it to the FA Cup Final and I wouldn’t fear anybody. OK, perhaps City a bit......
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When we play man city it will be fascinating with our defence and their attack , they are a fantastic team and if there is 2 players I really want to see this year its De Bruyne and Aguero .
 
Woodwardfan said:
More opinions please. An accountant likes his posts so I am open to reasoning.
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God you are hard work. In your OP you was referring to the 3rd from bottom club. In order to stay up they need to beat the fourth from bottom clubs points total, not their own. Just read it a few times and the penny should drop.
 
snootyfenooty said:
God you are hard work. In your OP you was referring to the 3rd from bottom club. In order to stay up they need to beat the fourth from bottom clubs points total, not their own. Just read it a few times and the penny should drop.
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Using your words from your last post 'in order to stay up they need to beat the fourth from bottom clubs points total'.

Simply not true. Factually incorrect and 'I've read it a few times'. snootyfenooty I think I will start a poll🤔
 
Woodwardfan said:
The 3rd bottom club relegated in the last 5 seasons had the following points: 34,33,34,37,35.

The average of those is 34.7, so if we need 35 points we now require 0.8 points per game. We are averaging 1.3 per game over the first 9.

Being cautious and saying that, us being United, we'll need 38 then the required average is 0.9 per game.


Watford need 1.24 points per game to get 38 points.
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Very clear o.p. snootyfenooty .
 
Woodwardfan said:
Very clear o.p. snootyfenooty .
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You neglected to mention that in each of those 5 seasons the club in 4th from bottom had 36, 36, 40, 39, 38 points at an average of 38. Therefore averaging 35 points wouldn't have been enough to save the club in 3rd from bottom. In fact it wouldn't have saved them in any of those seasons let alone the average. If United reach 35 points this season its a near certainty they will go down, not stay up. Now WWF I know you have a unique outlook on things but in this instance you need to sit back and try and understand what you said. I was trying to help you in a non-confrontational way before you went on to make an idiot of yourself again but it seems it was to no avail.
 
snootyfenooty said:
You neglected to mention that in each of those 5 seasons the club in 4th from bottom had 36, 36, 40, 39, 38 points at an average of 38. Therefore averaging 35 points wouldn't have been enough to save the club in 3rd from bottom. In fact it wouldn't have saved them in any of those seasons let alone the average. If United reach 35 points this season its a near certainty they will go down, not stay up. Now WWF I know you have a unique outlook on things but in this instance you need to sit back and try and understand what you said. I was trying to help you in a non-confrontational way before you went on to make an idiot of yourself again but it seems it was to no avail.
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In any event, the spread of points required to stay up over the last ten years ranges from 33 to 40. Simply taking an average over a five or ten year period doesn't give "we need" answer. It's just addition and division without taking results into account, and applying the answer to a complete variable. Pythagoras it isn't.
 
Sean Thornton said:
In any event, the spread of points required to stay up over the last ten years ranges from 33 to 40. Simply taking an average over a five or ten year period doesn't give "we need" answer. It's just addition and division without taking results into account, and applying the answer to a complete variable. Pythagoras it isn't.
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Yes indeed. If Wilder has set a definitive target, which I very much doubt, then it has to have a dynamic element in it where an adjustment can be made as the season develops. Anyway, I have us on 52 points finishing in 8th so I have a passing interest in this discussion only.
 

snootyfenooty said:
Yes indeed. If Wilder has set a definitive target, which I very much doubt, then it has to have a dynamic element in it where an adjustment can be made as the season develops. Anyway, I have us on 52 points finishing in 8th so I have a passing interest in this discussion only.
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Do you really think I was promoting the o.p. as a definitive theory?

It was a simple set of facts and pointed out a rather low safety level over the past few years which was probably of interest.

Whatever the 4th club had makes no diffrence, it is what they needed to survive i.e. same points and a better goal difference than the third from bottom club.

My o.p. suggested 38 points as a target and that seems to be your figure now.

Your discarded theory that we had to better the 4th from bottom was my non- confrontational point and just needed clearing up.

Nobody ever thought that any target should be cast in stone. Nobody mentioned Wilder.

I suggest any reader will decide who the 'idiot' is snootyfenooty, and it is the poster who introduced that label.
 
The result of the exercise means very little because of the random selection of five years. I suspect making the sample 6.7,8,9,10 years, or back to 1995/96 even, the most sensible choice, would provide a different figure, so “we need” changes dependent on the criteria.
 
Woodwardfan said:
Your discarded theory that we had to better the 4th from bottom was my non- confrontational point and just needed clearing up.
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Nooo. Naughty dodge there. Its the 3rd from bottom who has to better the 4th from bottom to stay up. We'll get there in the end.
 
Sean Thornton said:
The result of the exercise means very little because of the random selection of five years. I suspect making the sample 6.7,8,9,10 years, or back to 1995/96 even, the most sensible choice, would provide a different figure, so “we need” changes dependent on the criteria.
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Its a well meaning debating thread, not Pythagoras🙂
 
Woodwardfan said:
Its a well meaning debating thread, not Pythagoras🙂
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I’m not getting into another row with you. My point - as it would be to anyone - is that there is an inherent flaw in the Drawn conclusion “we need”.

We may need that amount of points using the last five years but as I’ve said, that figure will change as the number of years will change. Even going back to 1995/95 will only provide a bigger sample to add up and divide.
 
Sean Thornton said:
I’m not getting into another row with you. My point - as it would be to anyone - is that there is an inherent flaw in the Drawn conclusion “we need”.

We may need that amount of points using the last five years but as I’ve said, that figure will change as the number of years will change. Even going back to 1995/95 will only provide a bigger sample to add up and divide.
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No need for any 'row'. Forum has members who write o.p's and encourage debate and members who don't. Room for all of us. Always good to test opinion/ theories and what you say is not wrong, nor is any other chosen method wrong ; nor is it correct.

Now the claim that we have to beat the poins for past 17th placed teams is just patent nonsense but that was not you and it has become a 'row" with name- calling.
 
CaptainMorgans said:
It does feel like it's going to be a tighter league than usual this season. I think the demise of the tier 2 clubs (Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal Man Utd) has meant that a lot of sides lower down are picking up more points than usual.

Add to that, the teams that came up appear to be better than the teams that went down & there are no obvious whipping boys... I think to survive this season we may need closer to the 40 point mark.
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Maybe it's me being especially thick, but doesn't a tighter league mean a lower number of points all round, as teams routinely take points off each other?
So you may have more teams on sub 40 points, but relegation maybe 34/33?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, it's been a long hard week.
 
Flatulent_Bob said:
Maybe it's me being especially thick, but doesn't a tighter league mean a lower number of points all round, as teams routinely take points off each other?
So you may have more teams on sub 40 points, but relegation maybe 34/33?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, it's been a long hard week.
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Don't worry, he will......
 
Flatulent_Bob said:
Maybe it's me being especially thick, but doesn't a tighter league mean a lower number of points all round, as teams routinely take points off each other?
So you may have more teams on sub 40 points, but relegation maybe 34/33?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, it's been a long hard week.
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Probably. I'm just spouting.
 
OK, let's say we do need 38 points to be safe ( with the health warning to ameliorate those who will say nothing is certain and we may need more).

We now need 0.8 points per game on average to get 38 points and only a week or so ago we needed that figure to get 35 points.

More very welcome progress.
 
We now need 16 in 22 games which averages 0.74 points per game.

Health warning for pedants : it could be more, it could be less, but history says 38 will be enough.
 

Woodwardfan said:
We now need 16 in 22 games which averages 0.74 points per game.

Health warning for pedants : it could be more, it could be less, but history says 38 will be enough.
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I think we went down with 38 points which is enough of a health warning for everyone.
That third bottom is currently almost at a point a game seems a very high number which maybe means we are potentially looking at a high points total to stay up.
It would be nice if at least one or two teams could get cut adrift fairly soon.
 
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