2 from 5 for Top 6 (in colour)!

[ucandomagic]

These are pretty optimistic results for us, and pessimistic for others, and I have Hull 5th and Saints 6th on goal difference - we'd be 9th or 10th.

Pressure does funny things to players, though, and the fat lady may have got her corsets on, but she is still warming up!



UTB & Slava Ukraini!

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Since the second tier rebranded to the Championship in 2004 only one team has ever finished in the play offs having lost 17 or more games.

That was Coventry last season.

We've already lost 17 this season with ten games still to play.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

I got excited when I saw your graph with only 4 lines above us ...

... and then I realised that you are ignoring Boro, Coventry, Ipswich and Millwall and these lines are for 5th and 6th -

- I should read the title!

UTB & FTP!

 

[mattbianco1]

Since the second tier rebranded to the Championship in 2004 only one team has ever finished in the play offs having lost 17 or more games.

That was Coventry last season.

We've already lost 17 this season with ten games still to play.

No team has ever stayed up after our start, so we might aswell break 2 records, right?

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

No team has ever stayed up after our start, so we might aswell break 2 records, right?

Depends what you mean by, 'start'.

We lost our first six games of this season but won our seventh.

Wednesday didn't win until game 14 in 2023-24 and still stayed up.

 

[ekke287]

I think the reason why the playoffs are gone is one that can’t be measured on a graph.

It’s our level of inconsistency. It’s highlighted by our failure to beat teams recently that a promotion chasing team gets the win from (Cov / WBA / Southampton / Charlton etc).

The excuse of the start can only be used for so long, our failure to capitalise on multiple opportunities recently is the reason we’re a mid table team.

 

[Willglynning]

No team has ever stayed up after our start, so we might aswell break 2 records, right?

This is categorically nonsense.

7 games into the 21/22 season Forest had 1 point vs our 3 this season and they went on to get promoted that season.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

I think the reason why the playoffs are gone is one that can’t be measured on a graph.

It’s our level of inconsistency. It’s highlighted by our failure to beat teams recently that a promotion chasing team gets the win from (Cov / WBA / Southampton / Charlton etc).

The excuse of the start can only be used for so long, our failure to capitalise on multiple opportunities recently is the reason we’re a mid table team.

If we were going to get in the play offs this season the good run we need to go on would already have happened, or we'd currently be in the middle of it.

Looking at the table, we're not even in the race for the play offs.

It's between Wrexham, Derby and Southampton with Watford and Swansea lingering underneath.

We're like some desperate hangers-on trying to turn up at a party we haven't been invited to.

 

[mattbianco1]

Depends what you mean by, 'start'.

We lost our first six games of this season but won our seventh.

Wednesday didn't win until game 14 in 2023-24 and still stayed up.

This is categorically nonsense.

7 games into the 21/22 season Forest had 1 point vs our 3 this season and they went on to get promoted that season.

Only 4 teams have lost their opening 6 games in the Championship:
United (2026)
Pigs (2008)
Peterborough (2013)
Wycombe (2021)

Only United and Pigs survived.

Sure i saw somewhere that no club had ever survived from just 3pt in opening 10. But your Pig example quashes that.

Silent Blade / Revolution may be able to shed some light on it.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Sure i saw somewhere that no club had ever survived from just 1pt in opening 10. But your Pig example quashes that.

Wednesday in 2023-24 wouldn't be relevant to that because they had two points after ten games.

They drew games 5 and 7 against Leeds and Middlesbrough.

 

[TJ blade]

If we were going to get in the play offs this season the good run we need to go on would already have happened, or we'd currently be in the middle of it.

Looking at the table, we're not even in the race for the play offs.

It's between Wrexham, Derby and Southampton with Watford and Swansea lingering underneath.

We're like some desperate hangers-on trying to turn up at a party we haven't been invited to.

Southampton probably favourites.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Southampton probably favourites.

I'd back them to get 6th.

 

[Silent Blade]

Only 4 teams have lost their opening 6 games in the Championship:
United (2026)
Pigs (2008)
Peterborough (2013)
Wycombe (2021)

Only United and Pigs survived.

Sure i saw somewhere that no club had ever survived from just 3pt in opening 10. But your Pig example quashes that.

Silent Blade / Revolution may be able to shed some light on it.

We got 3 points in the first 11 games during the 1990/91 season

 

[Greasy Chap Butty]

I think the reason why the playoffs are gone is one that can’t be measured on a graph.

It’s our level of inconsistency. It’s highlighted by our failure to beat teams recently that a promotion chasing team gets the win from (Cov / WBA / Southampton / Charlton etc).

The excuse of the start can only be used for so long, our failure to capitalise on multiple opportunities recently is the reason we’re a mid table team.

You can show consistency on a graph fairly well

 

[ekke287]

I understand this, my point being that it’s irrelevant what teams above us do, we need to win every game, which we’re extremely unlikely to do.

If you wanted to try and use the consistency measure, I’d probably suggest average ppg would be the way forward:

Wrexham 1.5ppg = 72pt finish
Derby 1.45ppg = 67pt finish
Southampton 1.5ppg = 69pt finish
Watford 1.44ppg = 66pt finish
Swansea 1.40ppg = 64pt finish
Bristol City 1.35ppg = 62pt finish
Blades 1.36ppg = 62pt finish

I think Wrexham drop out and Southampton take 6th.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

Since the second tier rebranded to the Championship in 2004 only one team has ever finished in the play offs having lost 17 or more games.

That was Coventry last season.

We've already lost 17 this season with ten games still to play.

As Selles lost all his 5, and Wilder lost 6 of his first 9, we had lost 11 of our first 14, so we are not a typical "17 losses from 36 games" team.

The fact that we have only lost 6 of our last 22 games means that we had a step change. Maybe a more reasonable assumption would be to take the average from our last 22 games (1.82), for the last 10 games, which would give us about 67 - which would actually only have been enough to beat 7th place once, last year again coincidentally. Coventry got 69 and actually finished 5th with 17 losses.

If it looks like 75 is needed this year, then we need 8 wins and 2 draws - which does raise the question as to why we were so conservative after West Brom's equaliser on Saturday.

We need to be treating every game as a Cup game now - nothing to lose and a whole lot more fun to watch!

UTB & FTP!

 

[Champagneblade]

I understand this, my point being that it’s irrelevant what teams above us do, we need to win every game, which we’re extremely unlikely to do.

If you wanted to try and use the consistency measure, I’d probably suggest average ppg would be the way forward:

Wrexham 1.5ppg = 72pt finish
Derby 1.45ppg = 67pt finish
Southampton 1.5ppg = 69pt finish
Watford 1.44ppg = 66pt finish
Swansea 1.40ppg = 64pt finish
Bristol City 1.35ppg = 62pt finish
Blades 1.36ppg = 62pt finish

I think Wrexham drop out and Southampton take 6th.

If this was the case going back to winning at home and drawing away from 9 games back, I think that would have taken us to 73 points. Since then we’re down 8 on home games but up 4 on away games. So we need to win the remaining home games and pick up two wins away whilst only drawing the rest.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

As Selles lost all his 5, and Wilder lost 6 of his first 9, we had lost 11 of our first 14, so we are not a typical "17 losses from 36 games" team.

The fact that we have only lost 6 of our last 22 games means that we had a step change. Maybe a more reasonable assumption would be to take the average from our last 22 games (1.82), for the last 10 games, which would give us about 67 - which would actually only have been enough to beat 7th place once, last year again coincidentally. Coventry got 69 and actually finished 5th with 17 losses.

If it looks like 75 is needed this year, then we need 8 wins and 2 draws - which does raise the question as to why we were so conservative after West Brom's equaliser on Saturday.

We need to be treating every game as a Cup game now - nothing to lose and a whole lot more fun to watch!

UTB & FTP!

Honestly mate, it's gone.

Just let it go and relax.

 

[JT89]

If it looks like 75 is needed this year, then we need 8 wins and 2 draws - which does raise the question as to why we were so conservative after West Brom's equaliser on Saturday.

Because our manager hasn’t got a clue how to make changes that will change the game.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

ucandomagic

Can you work some more magic bullshit and do an updated graph/table?

 

[The Vicar]

Win all 9 and we can get to 76 points.

 

[Champagneblade]

For a Unitedite I consider myself on the optimistic side.

But even I can’t manage that with no material to work with.

The opportunity has been there, despite the abject start. But this group is going to lose almost half the games it plays.

There is no basis for optimism on that. They are just far too many ally weak.

Even this past week, if we’d held leads for 30 minutes, God forbid, even extended them. But no, we’ve checked away 5 points from winning positions instead.

As fans we’ve turned up. But the players haven’t anywhere near often enough.

Now we won’t, but if we won all the remaining games, it would be the most undeserved promotion ever.

We had one purple patch when I was in England(!) and that’s what we look back on, but this is the exception rather than the norm.

 

[Weasel]

Wont do anything whilst we cant keep a clean sheet. Too many daft goals conceded.