ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
I’ve got all of the Championship XG data in for the week now, so this is my review of Blades XG performance and general Championship XG stats. The purpose of this is simply to assess how teams are performing relative to their XG data – ie if a team’s results are better than their XG data it would suggest that they are overperforming and likely to slip back, unless they have a clearly above-average strike force or defence, – and vice versa if their results are worse than their XG data.
On Saturday December 14th we beat Plymouth 2-0 at Bramall Lane
The XG data for the game was Blades 1.6 – Plymouth 1.5.
Graph 1 shows a comparison of the progress of our actual goals for and against with our XG expected goals for and against over our 21 games so far. XG says that over those 21 games we should have scored 28.2 and conceded 20.2 and we have actually scored 30 and conceded 11. So, we are performing above our XG in scoring and much better than average against our XGA in defence for the chances that we are creating and allowing. Our XG goal difference of 8 is significantly less than our actual goal difference of 19. That difference is due to conceding about 9 less goals than XGA which has probably gained us at least 9 extra points, without which we would be in 6th place in the table. Putting that into context with other teams, we have the 9th best XG total and the 4th best XGA total.
However, the fact that we have a good XGA, and yet we are significantly outperforming even that, is the major reason for our current league position.
Graph 1:
Chart 1 is the XTable - based on both team’s XG’s in matches played – alongside the actual League Table. Blades are 4th in the XTable and 1st in the actual League table, so our actual results are better than our XG stats would imply. This outperformance is actually even greater, because the XTable does not apply the 2-point deduction. If the deduction were applied we would only be 6th in the XTable. As discussed above, our outperformance is driven by having only conceded 11 goals against an XGA of 20.2.
Blackburn are the biggest overperformers here – being 5th in the actual table but 19th in the XTable. Coventry are the exact opposite, being 15th in the actual table but 3rd in the XTable. This reflects the fact that Blackburn have conceded 9.6 less goals than their XGA and Coventry have conceded 8.8 more goals than their XGA.
Chart 1:
So, overall the stats show that our actual results are better than our XG performance. Our actual results represent a likely automatics position and our XG data suggest a playoff position. As mentioned, we are 9th best in XG, but we are 4th best in XGA, behind only Leeds, Burnley and Millwall. Our average XGA of 0.96 goals per game is a fairly good figure, but we are significantly outperforming that by delivering an actual average of 0.52 goals against per game. It is the outperformance of our XGA which leads to our outperforming our XG league position.
Our next game is tomorrow at Cardiff. They have scored 11 goals in their 10 home games with an XG of 14.2 and conceded 14 with an XGA of 13.9. Their stats are distorted, though, by beating Plymouth 5-0. Without that they have scored 6 in 9 home games and conceded 14.
So the stats would suggest a 2-1 Blades win, with 2-0 and 1-0 as the next 2 most likely results.
So let’s hope for a successful outing in our first international trip of the season!
For the real nerds I’ve put the full footballxg.com table at the bottom of the post!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Full Footballxg.com Table:
On Saturday December 14th we beat Plymouth 2-0 at Bramall Lane
The XG data for the game was Blades 1.6 – Plymouth 1.5.
Graph 1 shows a comparison of the progress of our actual goals for and against with our XG expected goals for and against over our 21 games so far. XG says that over those 21 games we should have scored 28.2 and conceded 20.2 and we have actually scored 30 and conceded 11. So, we are performing above our XG in scoring and much better than average against our XGA in defence for the chances that we are creating and allowing. Our XG goal difference of 8 is significantly less than our actual goal difference of 19. That difference is due to conceding about 9 less goals than XGA which has probably gained us at least 9 extra points, without which we would be in 6th place in the table. Putting that into context with other teams, we have the 9th best XG total and the 4th best XGA total.
However, the fact that we have a good XGA, and yet we are significantly outperforming even that, is the major reason for our current league position.
Graph 1:
Chart 1 is the XTable - based on both team’s XG’s in matches played – alongside the actual League Table. Blades are 4th in the XTable and 1st in the actual League table, so our actual results are better than our XG stats would imply. This outperformance is actually even greater, because the XTable does not apply the 2-point deduction. If the deduction were applied we would only be 6th in the XTable. As discussed above, our outperformance is driven by having only conceded 11 goals against an XGA of 20.2.
Blackburn are the biggest overperformers here – being 5th in the actual table but 19th in the XTable. Coventry are the exact opposite, being 15th in the actual table but 3rd in the XTable. This reflects the fact that Blackburn have conceded 9.6 less goals than their XGA and Coventry have conceded 8.8 more goals than their XGA.
Chart 1:
So, overall the stats show that our actual results are better than our XG performance. Our actual results represent a likely automatics position and our XG data suggest a playoff position. As mentioned, we are 9th best in XG, but we are 4th best in XGA, behind only Leeds, Burnley and Millwall. Our average XGA of 0.96 goals per game is a fairly good figure, but we are significantly outperforming that by delivering an actual average of 0.52 goals against per game. It is the outperformance of our XGA which leads to our outperforming our XG league position.
Our next game is tomorrow at Cardiff. They have scored 11 goals in their 10 home games with an XG of 14.2 and conceded 14 with an XGA of 13.9. Their stats are distorted, though, by beating Plymouth 5-0. Without that they have scored 6 in 9 home games and conceded 14.
So the stats would suggest a 2-1 Blades win, with 2-0 and 1-0 as the next 2 most likely results.
So let’s hope for a successful outing in our first international trip of the season!
For the real nerds I’ve put the full footballxg.com table at the bottom of the post!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Full Footballxg.com Table:
