The Clough Factor

[Sean Thornton]

Suit yourself Sean, that wasn't my point but have it your way if it's important to you. Tough school this, well policed

At least the mistake made a couple on here happy.

As gracious and deflecting as ever. Not me guv!
Everyone gets things wrong. It's just a case of admitting it.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Southampton were owned by a multi-billionaire when they sold some of their players like Ox. There was no financial necessity but they still considered selling him to be the correct decision.
Now you can criticise our board's lack of judgement all day and I won't argue but if a club that has been as successful as Southampton have been deem it a good idea to sell a player then perhaps it is.
Everton and West Brom have enough money from the PL to be able to refuse bids for Stones and Berahino, and bring in other players when they don't perform, we don't.

Selling players is inevitable, it's how you handle it that is important. I recall Bristol City selling their striker before their promotion season. What did they do? They went out and spent the money on another.

I accept it’s inevitable that sometimes your best players will be sold. I don’t accept that it’s inevitable that you have to sell your best player every season, for fairly modest fees whilst repeatedly telling the world how powerless we are to stop it. If we had dug in once or twice, the others we sold might have gone for higher fees because clubs would know we don’t just bend over and pull our trousers down for them. I very much doubt Southampton would have got the fees they did for players if they capitulated as easily as we seem to.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Why is it not a simple yes or no question?

For a start because nobody knows the calibre of player we could bring in under each of those criteria. If the freebie had been Alex Pearce, the loans had been Patrick Bamford, Gaston Ramirez and Richie De Laet and we’d paid the fee we did for Sharp then yes, I would think that should be enough to get us up.


Additionally, we had no idea how the inherited players would adapt to Adkins’ style. These are players used to playing in Clough’s rigid 451 system and signed for that purpose. They struggled to adapt to the more expensive system and the physical demands that put on them to get up and down the pitch. They've now proven themselves (mostly) to be not good enough under more than one manager. Let's try with some who might be.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Absolutely this. As a fan base, we get incredibly wound up about inevitable player sales, and go quietly by as we squander almost every penny of reinvestment on utter shite.

UTB

But, as a fan we don’t know with any certainty at the time of a signing


a) What it will cost

b) How good he is


It’s always with hindsight that we see this. Some thought Woolford and Sammon would be good signings but it hasn’t turned out that way.


There’s also the fact that some players might be good in time with the right players around them but we sack managers every season meaning no team pattern emerges so players look crap because they don’t fit the mish mash system being operated.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

interesting read, for those saying weve had too many managers
we are way down the list

http://www.skysports.com/football/n...e-longest-average-tenures-in-english-football

managers tenures are down to an average 425 days now

Those stats are meaningless as they date back for the whole lifetime of the club as a professional football club. No wonder to see MK Dons (Despite Robinson having been there ages) and Crawley have the shortest reigns as they only came into the pro game relatively recently. As a founding member of the football league, it's no wonder we have had historically longer reigns. Means nothing in the modern game.

Then there's the issue of head coach v manager. Clubs with a structure around a head coach can change that one man with a lot less disruption than clubs who have autonomous managers.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Even Jags had a £4m sell on clause written into his contract when he renewed it and we were in the Prem then. This is L1 don't forget.

Maguire quadrupled his salary.

Be realistic and respect all parties, rather than cursing the club and creating doom and gloom, look forward to the next stage, because there's an inevitability about the sales - it's how we utilise the proceeds that matters.

Thing is, we turned down £4million for Jags 18 months earlier and he accepted it as the club were showing ambition and going places. He went on to play a huge part in us getting promoted to the prem. We got around 5 years stellar service from Jagielka before eventually selling him to allow him to stay in the Premier League.


Now we don’t tend to get more than a year or two of good performance out of a player before selling them on. We might not be able to keep them forever but if we make them see out a year longer than they’d like, we might just get promoted in which case they might want to stay.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

I think we could have got £2m for Brown if we'd cashed in at the start of the season, which could have brought us a few players with Warnock's ability to find relatively cheap ones, but we had a few months of crap and then let him go for £500k because his contract was running down. I'm afraid that's one Warnock got wrong.

Weren’t we in the top six when he was sold though (not certain but I thought we were) ? If we’d held out, we might have gone up instead of finishing (I think) 8th.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Wiki says 25 starts.

Each time I've watched he's been sub or subbed and 6 goals makes my point anyway, don't you think Sean?

Watch Knockhart play more than him in the run-in.

How does it? It’s more than any of our midfielders have this season Baxter and he’s their third highest scorer even though he’s a winger.

 

[BushBlade]

Weren’t we in the top six when he was sold though (not certain but I thought we were) ? If we’d held out, we might have gone up instead of finishing (I think) 8th.

Can't remember tbh.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Can't remember tbh.

Can't see the table at the time he was sold but just had a look at our results over the season and at the beginning of January we had

Played 26
Won 13
Drawn 6
Lost 7

Points- 45

Which extrapolated over a season would result 79 points which would have seen us finish joint 3rd with Sunderland. Of course there are lots of variables but there's an argument for saying we might have gone up if we'd kept him.

 

[BushBlade]

Can't see the table at the time he was sold but just had a look at our results over the season and at the beginning of January we had

Played 26
Won 13
Drawn 6
Lost 7

Points- 45

Which extrapolated over a season would result 79 points which would have seen us finish joint 3rd with Sunderland. Of course there are lots of variables but there's an argument for saying we might have gone up if we'd kept him.

Well there's an argument we'd have gone up if we'd sold him in the summer and spent the money on a replacement who wasn't already packing his bags and looking at property in London but either way Warnock got it wrong.

 

[alcoblade]

But, as a fan we don’t know with any certainty at the time of a signing


a) What it will cost

b) How good he is


It’s always with hindsight that we see this. Some thought Woolford and Sammon would be good signings but it hasn’t turned out that way.


There’s also the fact that some players might be good in time with the right players around them but we sack managers every season meaning no team pattern emerges so players look crap because they don’t fit the mish mash system being operated.

Agreed - however, ask people to make one criticism of the club. 9 / 10 will say "we sell our best players", citing 5 examples from the least decade.

Hardly any will say "we squander our resource on shite, continually", despite there being 15 examples every season.

UTB

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Agreed - however, ask people to make one criticism of the club. 9 / 10 will say "we sell our best players", citing 5 examples from the least decade.

Hardly any will say "we squander our resource on shite, continually", despite there being 15 examples every season.

UTB

I think that's because all blades of all ages associate the sale of the best players with the club from Jimmy Dunne, to Mick Jones, to Brian Deane, to Brian Deane again, to Beattie....... all the way to Jamie Murphy.

We have though historically had spells of excellent recruitment with some real bargains

Deane, Agana, Kelly etc. to the more recent McDonald, Murphy, Blackman etc.

The sale of best players seems more of a constant factor.

 

[TonyAgana]

I think that's because all blades of all ages associate the sale of the best players with the club from Jimmy Dunne, to Mick Jones, to Brian Deane, to Brian Deane again, to Beattie....... all the way to Jamie Murphy.

We have though historically had spells of excellent recruitment with some real bargains

Deane, Agana, Kelly etc. to the more recent McDonald, Murphy, Blackman etc.

The sale of best players seems more of a constant factor.

Also, as alluded to earlier, selling a player is a far more quantifiable action than buying one. There is very rarely a gamble associated with selling a player.

The first question I ALWAYS ask is "how much will it cost to replace him?" automatically factoring in our potential for making duff signings.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Also, as alluded to earlier, selling a player is a far more quantifiable action than buying one. There is very rarely a gamble associated with selling a player.

The first question I ALWAYS ask is "how much will it cost to replace him?" automatically factoring in our potential for making duff signings.

Whilever we're at this level, we can't replace with equal quality though. If the player we are selling is going to championship or prem, other players of that standard will also be wanted by those clubs. That means we buy a young player in the hope he will become as good or better or try for players on their way down who have been good.

 

[Revolution]

Weren’t we in the top six when he was sold though (not certain but I thought we were) ? If we’d held out, we might have gone up instead of finishing (I think) 8th.

We were 3rd or 4th.

For the sake of 500 grand, we sold brown, put Monty in his place, and missed the playoffs by 3 points.

 

[Revolution]

Also, as alluded to earlier, selling a player is a far more quantifiable action than buying one. There is very rarely a gamble associated with selling a player.

The first question I ALWAYS ask is "how much will it cost to replace him?" automatically factoring in our potential for making duff signings.

Never sell a good player unless you know who's going to replace what he offers.

That's a lesson we've never learned.

 

[blade too long]

Those stats are meaningless as they date back for the whole lifetime of the club as a professional football club. No wonder to see MK Dons (Despite Robinson having been there ages) and Crawley have the shortest reigns as they only came into the pro game relatively recently. As a founding member of the football league, it's no wonder we have had historically longer reigns. Means nothing in the modern game.

Then there's the issue of head coach v manager. Clubs with a structure around a head coach can change that one man with a lot less disruption than clubs who have autonomous managers.

meaningless . go on then Ill bite

, point one of yours weve been in the game longer than about 15 clubs

all who are at the bottom of the list
all the clubs been in the league as long as us are there

we are in history the club with the 11th in longest serving managers

over the past decade weve had 9 managers , full time
the reason the average tenure is 428 days in 2014 was most clubs matched or bettered our turnover

can you not work that out
chelseas had 11 in the last decade
nottingham forest list of 15

FROM TO
Paul Williams 13 Mar, 2016 Present
Dougie Freedman 02 Feb, 2015 13 Mar, 2016
Stuart Pearce 01 Jul, 2014 01 Feb, 2015
Gary Brazil 24 Mar, 2014 01 Jul, 2014
Billy Davies 07 Feb, 2013 24 Mar, 2014
Alex McLeish 27 Dec, 2012 05 Feb, 2013
Sean O'Driscoll 20 Jul, 2012 27 Dec, 2012
Steve Cotterill 14 Oct, 2011 12 Jul, 2012
Steve McClaren 13 Jun, 2011 02 Oct, 2011
Billy Davies 04 Jan, 2009 12 Jun, 2011
John Pemberton 27 Dec, 2008 04 Jan, 2009
Colin Calderwood 30 May, 2006 27 Dec, 2008
Ian McParland 17 Feb, 2006 30 May, 2006
Frank Barlow 17 Feb, 2006 30 May, 2006
Gary Megson 10 Jan, 2005 16 Feb, 2006

Blackburn Rovers have had 10
Paul Lambert 15 Nov, 2015 Present
Gary Bowyer 19 Mar, 2013 10 Nov, 2015
Michael Appleton 12 Jan, 2013 19 Mar, 2013
Gary Bowyer 27 Dec, 2012 12 Jan, 2013
Henning Berg 01 Nov, 2012 27 Dec, 2012
Eric Black 28 Sep, 2012 01 Nov, 2012
Steve Kean 13 Dec, 2010 28 Sep, 2012
Sam Allardyce 17 Dec, 2008 13 Dec, 2010
Paul Ince 21 Jun, 2008 16 Dec, 2008
Mark Hughes 15 Sep, 2004 04 Jun, 2008

theres lots and lots of managers moving on

 

[1danewhitehouse]

meaningless . go on then Ill bite

, point one of yours weve been in the game longer than about 15 clubs

all who are at the bottom of the list
all the clubs been in the league as long as us are there

we are in history the club with the 11th in longest serving managers

over the past decade weve had 9 managers , full time
the reason the average tenure is 428 days in 2014 was most clubs matched or bettered our turnover

can you not work that out
chelseas had 11 in the last decade
nottingham forest list of 15

FROM TO
Paul Williams 13 Mar, 2016 Present
Dougie Freedman 02 Feb, 2015 13 Mar, 2016
Stuart Pearce 01 Jul, 2014 01 Feb, 2015
Gary Brazil 24 Mar, 2014 01 Jul, 2014
Billy Davies 07 Feb, 2013 24 Mar, 2014
Alex McLeish 27 Dec, 2012 05 Feb, 2013
Sean O'Driscoll 20 Jul, 2012 27 Dec, 2012
Steve Cotterill 14 Oct, 2011 12 Jul, 2012
Steve McClaren 13 Jun, 2011 02 Oct, 2011
Billy Davies 04 Jan, 2009 12 Jun, 2011
John Pemberton 27 Dec, 2008 04 Jan, 2009
Colin Calderwood 30 May, 2006 27 Dec, 2008
Ian McParland 17 Feb, 2006 30 May, 2006
Frank Barlow 17 Feb, 2006 30 May, 2006
Gary Megson 10 Jan, 2005 16 Feb, 2006

Blackburn Rovers have had 10
Paul Lambert 15 Nov, 2015 Present
Gary Bowyer 19 Mar, 2013 10 Nov, 2015
Michael Appleton 12 Jan, 2013 19 Mar, 2013
Gary Bowyer 27 Dec, 2012 12 Jan, 2013
Henning Berg 01 Nov, 2012 27 Dec, 2012
Eric Black 28 Sep, 2012 01 Nov, 2012
Steve Kean 13 Dec, 2010 28 Sep, 2012
Sam Allardyce 17 Dec, 2008 13 Dec, 2010
Paul Ince 21 Jun, 2008 16 Dec, 2008
Mark Hughes 15 Sep, 2004 04 Jun, 2008

theres lots and lots of managers moving on

Those few examples over the last decade doesn't mean that averages based on trends dating back to the 1800s have a bearing on whether we are perceived as a "sacking club" in the modern day.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

meaningless . go on then Ill bite

, point one of yours weve been in the game longer than about 15 clubs

all who are at the bottom of the list
all the clubs been in the league as long as us are there

we are in history the club with the 11th in longest serving managers

over the past decade weve had 9 managers , full time
the reason the average tenure is 428 days in 2014 was most clubs matched or bettered our turnover

can you not work that out
chelseas had 11 in the last decade
nottingham forest list of 15

FROM TO
Paul Williams 13 Mar, 2016 Present
Dougie Freedman 02 Feb, 2015 13 Mar, 2016
Stuart Pearce 01 Jul, 2014 01 Feb, 2015
Gary Brazil 24 Mar, 2014 01 Jul, 2014
Billy Davies 07 Feb, 2013 24 Mar, 2014
Alex McLeish 27 Dec, 2012 05 Feb, 2013
Sean O'Driscoll 20 Jul, 2012 27 Dec, 2012
Steve Cotterill 14 Oct, 2011 12 Jul, 2012
Steve McClaren 13 Jun, 2011 02 Oct, 2011
Billy Davies 04 Jan, 2009 12 Jun, 2011
John Pemberton 27 Dec, 2008 04 Jan, 2009
Colin Calderwood 30 May, 2006 27 Dec, 2008
Ian McParland 17 Feb, 2006 30 May, 2006
Frank Barlow 17 Feb, 2006 30 May, 2006
Gary Megson 10 Jan, 2005 16 Feb, 2006

Blackburn Rovers have had 10
Paul Lambert 15 Nov, 2015 Present
Gary Bowyer 19 Mar, 2013 10 Nov, 2015
Michael Appleton 12 Jan, 2013 19 Mar, 2013
Gary Bowyer 27 Dec, 2012 12 Jan, 2013
Henning Berg 01 Nov, 2012 27 Dec, 2012
Eric Black 28 Sep, 2012 01 Nov, 2012
Steve Kean 13 Dec, 2010 28 Sep, 2012
Sam Allardyce 17 Dec, 2008 13 Dec, 2010
Paul Ince 21 Jun, 2008 16 Dec, 2008
Mark Hughes 15 Sep, 2004 04 Jun, 2008

theres lots and lots of managers moving on

I think having John Nicholson in charge for nearly 33 at the turn of the 20th century (when many of the clubs listed hadn't even been formed) probably skews the averages a bit.

 

[blade too long]

I think having John Nicholson in charge for nearly 33 at the turn of the 20th century (when many of the clubs listed hadn't even been formed) probably skews the averages a bit.

still doesnt alter the fact the current average is just over 400 days
thats here and now
not pre world war one

and once Wenger goes thatll drop to under 400

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_Football_League_managers

only 6 managers been in a job over 3 years

68 current managers are under 2 years in their job
50, thats more than half the 92 , been there under a year

 

[Woodwardfan]

How does it? It’s more than any of our midfielders have this season Baxter and he’s their third highest scorer even though he’s a winger.

My mistake acknowledged above after it was pointed out.

 

[Bladesman]

I accept it’s inevitable that sometimes your best players will be sold. I don’t accept that it’s inevitable that you have to sell your best player every season, for fairly modest fees whilst repeatedly telling the world how powerless we are to stop it. If we had dug in once or twice, the others we sold might have gone for higher fees because clubs would know we don’t just bend over and pull our trousers down for them. I very much doubt Southampton would have got the fees they did for players if they capitulated as easily as we seem to.

Agreed.

When Soton were in League One they managed to sell Oxlade-Chamberlain for £15 million plus addons. I think he played just one season for them in League 1 as well. We can't even manage to do a deal that's even half that.

We do well to get £2.40 for any of our players.

 

[BushBlade]

Agreed.

When Soton were in League One they managed to sell Oxlade-Chamberlain for £15 million plus addons. I think he played just one season for them in League 1 as well. We can't even manage to do a deal that's even half that.

We do well to get £2.40 for any of our players.

They sold him for £12m plus add ons after they'd been promoted from L1. He was an attacking player going to a top four side. I can't think of another deal even close to that since.

 

[Bladesman]

They sold him for £12m plus add ons after they'd been promoted from L1. He was an attacking player going to a top four side. I can't think of another deal even close to that since.

I can't think of many deals we do that are more than £4million and you could argue with hindsight we undersold Walker.

 

[BushBlade]

I can't think of many deals we do that are more than £4million and you could argue with hindsight we undersold Walker.

How many players get sold from this league for more than £4m? Not that many, I can think of two or three and they've all been attacking players.
Of course, it's always hard to judge because of the number of undisclosed deals.
Wasn't the Walker sale one of Turry's? He didn't seem to get much right. Or was it the asset stripper who followed him?

 

[1danewhitehouse]

I can't think of many deals we do that are more than £4million and you could argue with hindsight we undersold Walker.

I was arguing at the time that we had massively undersold Walker. I accepted Naughton was going but to lose Walker for about £3million was well was a proper kick in the bollocks

 

[1danewhitehouse]

still doesnt alter the fact the current average is just over 400 days
thats here and now
not pre world war one

and once Wenger goes thatll drop to under 400

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_Football_League_managers

only 6 managers been in a job over 3 years

68 current managers are under 2 years in their job
50, thats more than half the 92 , been there under a year

I’m not sure why you think that justifies sacking a manager when he’s 317 days into the job and has had so much downsizing to do on top of having his best player sold and being poorly backed in the market just as we’re starting to show a bit of improvement.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

My mistake acknowledged above after it was pointed out.

Fair enough.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Agreed.

When Soton were in League One they managed to sell Oxlade-Chamberlain for £15 million plus addons. I think he played just one season for them in League 1 as well. We can't even manage to do a deal that's even half that.

We do well to get £2.40 for any of our players.

Indeed. Perhaps if McCabe didn’t spend every spare minute telling all the clubs above us


“come and take our players, there’s fuck all we can do about it. Of course you wouldn’t want to play for Sheffield United instead of Brighton, Wolves, Hull, Reading etc. Those are the depths I’ve taken this club to”


Then we might be in a stronger position to negotiate better deals.