Can any of the top 6 collapse?

[SUFC Handsworth]

If we've got eyes on top 2 we need 2 of the top 3 to implode. That would be more likely to happen if we were to cherry pick the best players from Walsall, Burton and Gillingham. We're only a point behind top 6 so if we hold some kind of form to the end of the season then play-offs are more realistic.

Three scrappy 1-0s and a decent win v Bradford is a start but I'm not totally convinced with this team given our Sept-Nov results and performances.

 

[PeteBlade]

Walsall and Burton are scraping the 1-0 wins
are they set up to do it for another 23 games , only time will tell
Can we catch them , , history says its possible
We have to be better , but showing signs of being better, again only time will tell

Despite both Walsall and Gillingham getting 1-0 wins over the Christmas period, you'd have to go back to September for the last time before that Walsall got a 1-0 in the league and I think October for Gillingham.

So it's safe to say no, they aren't set up to play this way and no, they won't be playing for 1-0's for the next 23 games.

 

[Barry Blunt]

Despite both Walsall and Gillingham getting 1-0 wins over the Christmas period, you'd have to go back to September for the last time before that Walsall got a 1-0 in the league and I think October for Gillingham.

So it's safe to say no, they aren't set up to play this way and no, they won't be playing for 1-0's for the next 23 games.

The original post was a ridiculous comment, we're one of the highest scoring teams on the division, with goals coming from all but one of our outfield players.

As for losing our best players in January, or our form dropping off, we're Walsall fans, we've seen it all before so anything can happen. However, Sawyers has said he's no going anywhere until January, and we've been without Bradshaw and Henry the last few games, and they haven't been missed as we've won them all, against play off challengers at that. In fact, O'Driscoll has found another dimension that Smith never could, by having a plan B when Bradshaw is out.

As for George Evans, he may go elsewhere, but he was initially only bought in to cover for Mantom, who is now back from injury.

If we lot anyone in January, we'll strengthen with quality loans like we always do.

We're looking good for a play off spot at least.

 

[Cyprus Blade]

Squad quality and depth comes more into play in the second part of the season - a few key injuries/suspensions/transfers can scupper momentum. Our huge squad will come into its own and .......um....errr.....we might scrape a playoff place.

 

[Alfreton14Blade]

The original post was a ridiculous comment, we're one of the highest scoring teams on the division, with goals coming from all but one of our outfield players.

As for losing our best players in January, or our form dropping off, we're Walsall fans, we've seen it all before so anything can happen. However, Sawyers has said he's no going anywhere until January, and we've been without Bradshaw and Henry the last few games, and they haven't been missed as we've won them all, against play off challengers at that. In fact, O'Driscoll has found another dimension that Smith never could, by having a plan B when Bradshaw is out.

As for George Evans, he may go elsewhere, but he was initially only bought in to cover for Mantom, who is now back from injury.

If we lot anyone in January, we'll strengthen with quality loans like we always do.

We're looking good for a play off spot at least.

Obsessive though you are (& understandably so) about Walsall's fortunes, the O/P was only marginally about your beloved side. It was posing a more general point about whether a number of the current front runners could fall away, using the example of Bury's alarming decline during the second quarter of the season.

And, though you've put a couple of provisos in there - "we're Walsall fans, we've seen it all before, so anything can happen"; "we're looking good for a play off spot" - you're remarkably bullish about your side's chances, given how inexperienced they are at dealing with the sort of pressures that have seen similarly admirable sides fall away over recent seasons when the going gets tough.

Us "big time Charlies" will get on, modestly, with doing the hoping, while you get carried away with your expanded expectations. Good luck to you - you're going to need plenty of it however decent a side you are right now (pre-transfer window).

 

[Bartleby]

Actually Jim, history shows that we would be history makers if we were to do it!

This chart shows the teams who finished top and runners up for the last 10 seasons, how many points they had after 23 games and how many they finished with. With 36 points we would need some run to gain automatic promotion. The only thing in our favour is that in 2006-07, Southend and Colchester were 5th and 6th after 23 games with 37 points. The leaders at the time were Brentford who had 43 points and second were Swansea with 42 points. In other words, they were 6 and 5 points behind the top 2 not 12 as per United now. That is not to say we can't do it!

View attachment 15183

For us to gain automatic we will probably need at least 51 points from the final 23 matches. Only 3 of those clubs listed have done that (Wolves 2014, and Brighton and Southampton in 2011). Interestingly Scunthorpe also got 49 in the year they won the League so NA does have history with good 2nd halves of the season.

Great post, a spreadsheet with averages AND medians in, love it!

 

[Lord Bos of Eckington.]

Or, more to the point, can a few of them falter & fall away (Orient-style, or Tranmere-style)?

I'd say "yes".

Just look at Bury. One of the division's very top sides for the first quarter of the season. After 12 games they were 4th, 2 pts off the automatic places. Just drawn with Wigan after having won 6 on the spin (& only having lost one all season at that stage). Able to attract very decent loanees from the two divisions above. And with their strong looking first eleven, & decent squad options especially up front, they were looking like they'd put in a very strong showing over the season & maybe even challenge for top two.

Then they go & lose 7 out of their last 10 games &, at the half-way stage, they're looking like mid-table also-rans, squeezed as they are in 12th place between Port Vale & Rochdale.

This is the sort of thing that could easily happen to any number of Burton, Gillingham, Peterboro, Walsall, Southend, even Coventry. Especially if they're raided in the Jan transfer window. Maybe not Wigan, but maybe even Wigan too.

Keep the faith & all that.

The main thing IMO is that we don't collapse. The league table will then look after itself . The first time against Bradford the crowd and players seemed in unison. Long may that continue which has the making of a successful season.Credit to Adkins,players and long suffering loyal fans.

UTB

 

[Superblades]

We need to take one game at a time. We are only 2 defeats on the trot and it will become a meltdown on here.

I liked Clough but as we all know all it takes is one fall out with a player and he will become stubborn and keep that player out at all costs. So Burton could quite easily fall out of contention. Walsall & Gillingham are the favourites for me and will take some stopping.

 

[Barry Blunt]

Obsessive though you are (& understandably so) about Walsall's fortunes, the O/P was only marginally about your beloved side. It was posing a more general point about whether a number of the current front runners could fall away, using the example of Bury's alarming decline during the second quarter of the season.

And, though you've put a couple of provisos in there - "we're Walsall fans, we've seen it all before, so anything can happen"; "we're looking good for a play off spot" - you're remarkably bullish about your side's chances, given how inexperienced they are at dealing with the sort of pressures that have seen similarly admirable sides fall away over recent seasons when the going gets tough.

Us "big time Charlies" will get on, modestly, with doing the hoping, while you get carried away with your expanded expectations. Good luck to you - you're going to need plenty of it however decent a side you are right now (pre-transfer window).

Been there and done it before....when you didn't have a clue about this league, and were still a decent side. Check the records.

 

[Blade82]

Once we're averaging 2points per game the autos can be cosidered. For me though it's all about consolidating ourselves in the playoffs for now, starting with 3pts from a playoff rival on Saturday, considering where we were after the Shrewsbury game to even be considering that people would have thought you were mad.

The top three do all have to visit the lane too which, if we're in a position to pounce certainly goes in our favour.

Roll on Saturday.

 

[Darthblade]

Or, more to the point, can a few of them falter & fall away (Orient-style, or Tranmere-style)?

I'd say "yes".

Just look at Bury. One of the division's very top sides for the first quarter of the season. After 12 games they were 4th, 2 pts off the automatic places. Just drawn with Wigan after having won 6 on the spin (& only having lost one all season at that stage). Able to attract very decent loanees from the two divisions above. And with their strong looking first eleven, & decent squad options especially up front, they were looking like they'd put in a very strong showing over the season & maybe even challenge for top two.

Then they go & lose 7 out of their last 10 games &, at the half-way stage, they're looking like mid-table also-rans, squeezed as they are in 12th place between Port Vale & Rochdale.

This is the sort of thing that could easily happen to any number of Burton, Gillingham, Peterboro, Walsall, Southend, even Coventry. Especially if they're raided in the Jan transfer window. Maybe not Wigan, but maybe even Wigan too.

Keep the faith & all that.

Many have predicted it but here we are, nearly in January, and it hasn't happened yet.

We cant rely on other teams fucking it up ...... we're quite good enough at that ourselves tbh !!!

We need to do the business ourselves, starting in the JTW .....

UTB & FTP

 

[blade too long]

Despite both Walsall and Gillingham getting 1-0 wins over the Christmas period, you'd have to go back to September for the last time before that Walsall got a 1-0 in the league and I think October for Gillingham.

So it's safe to say no, they aren't set up to play this way and no, they won't be playing for 1-0's for the next 23 games.

new manager , , might take 1-0 s , I would

 

[blade too long]

Many have predicted it but here we are, nearly in January, and it hasn't happened yet.

UTB & FTP

not seen our last months results ?

 

[PeteBlade]

new manager , , might take 1-0 s , I would

Completely different to you suggesting both teams are getting 1-0's which you can tell by simply looking at their results.

 

[blade too long]

Completely different to you suggesting both teams are getting 1-0's which you can tell by simply looking at their results.

Burtons had 6 1-0 wins a quarter of their games

 

[PeteBlade]

Burtons had 6 1-0 wins a quarter of their games

And that would have been a great point had your original post been talking about Burton getting 1-0's and not Walsall and Gillingham...

 

[blade too long]

Walsall and Burton are scraping the 1-0 wins
are they set up to do it for another

Did I where ?
think youll find you mentioned Gillingham

 

[PeteBlade]

Did I where ?
think youll find you mentioned Gillingham

My mistake. You had a point about Burton whilst being completely incorrect about Walsall, 50% is much better than usual!

 

[blade too long]

whereas your gillingham was 100% wrong

 

[Boxer Blade]

Something I am looking forward to is a change in the atmosphere, it was so much better in the 2nd. half, think it will be at the beginning of the game on Saturday, the players will pick up on it and hopefully get a result, we all come home talking positive again and looking forward to the next game, if this starts to roll the atmosphere will be brilliant and could easily make the difference to the 2nd. half of the season, a rockin Bramall Lane again, lets hope so.

 

[HillmortonBlade]

Been there and done it before....when you didn't have a clue about this league, and were still a decent side. Check the records.

All I know is that your ground is where I feel I have my worst away record, which contrasts with the warm welcome I have at your clubhouse before.

 

[Jehovah]

Gillingham smashed us to pieces and Walsall pounded us to mush (we luckily drew) Our results have picked up, but before that and inlcuding the win against Coventry, we were diabolical. I would snatch your hands off to finish 6th right now.

 

[blade too long]

Look at Brighton
not lost till mid december
5 points clear of play off places at the start of December
now just lost for the 3rd home game on the trot to Wolves
slumped to 5th, 5 points adrift of top 2 and played a game more than those just below them

Actually if you peruse Brightons results all the games theyve won have been by 1 goal
were flattering to decieve a bit

but it was Brighton and another team to go up not long back , can change in a month

 

[judge]

Look at Brighton
not lost till mid december
5 points clear of play off places at the start of December
now just lost for the 3rd home game on the trot to Wolves
slumped to 5th, 5 points adrift of top 2 and played a game more than those just below them

Actually if you peruse Brightons results all the games theyve won have been by 1 goal
were flattering to decieve a bit

but it was Brighton and another team to go up not long back , can change in a month

Look at luke skywalker he was bullseyeing womp rats in his t16 back home and went on to become the balance in the force

 

[blade too long]

Look at luke skywalker he was bullseyeing womp rats in his t16 back home and went on to become the balance in the force

thats because they turned defence into attack, tactics using obi one kanobi wide
we are getting the balance right may the force be with us