Can any of the top 6 collapse?

[Alfreton14Blade]

Or, more to the point, can a few of them falter & fall away (Orient-style, or Tranmere-style)?

I'd say "yes".

Just look at Bury. One of the division's very top sides for the first quarter of the season. After 12 games they were 4th, 2 pts off the automatic places. Just drawn with Wigan after having won 6 on the spin (& only having lost one all season at that stage). Able to attract very decent loanees from the two divisions above. And with their strong looking first eleven, & decent squad options especially up front, they were looking like they'd put in a very strong showing over the season & maybe even challenge for top two.

Then they go & lose 7 out of their last 10 games &, at the half-way stage, they're looking like mid-table also-rans, squeezed as they are in 12th place between Port Vale & Rochdale.

This is the sort of thing that could easily happen to any number of Burton, Gillingham, Peterboro, Walsall, Southend, even Coventry. Especially if they're raided in the Jan transfer window. Maybe not Wigan, but maybe even Wigan too.

Keep the faith & all that.

 

[UnitedBlade]

Or, more to the point, can a few of them falter & fall away (Orient-style, or Tranmere-style)?

I'd say "yes".

Just look at Bury. One of the division's very top sides for the first quarter of the season. After 12 games they were 4th, 2 pts off the automatic places. Just drawn with Wigan after having won 6 on the spin (& only having lost one all season at that stage). Able to attract very decent loanees from the two divisions above. And with their strong looking first eleven, & decent squad options especially up front, they were looking like they'd put in a very strong showing over the season & maybe even challenge for top two.

Then they go & lose 7 out of their last 10 games &, at the half-way stage, they're looking like mid-table also-rans, squeezed as they are in 12th place between Port Vale & Rochdale.

This is the sort of thing that could easily happen to any number of Burton, Gillingham, Peterboro, Walsall, Southend, even Coventry. Especially if they're raided in the Jan transfer window. Maybe not Wigan, but maybe even Wigan too.

Keep the faith & all that.

You rarely need more than 75 points for the top 6.

The top 2 will get that on "relegation" form they are dead certs.

I'd be surprised if Coventry, Gillingham and Wigan fail to get 75.

Sometimes a club falters but rarely 2 or 3. That's why good starts are so important.

I still think we're playing for a spot 4th to 6th.

We should concentrate on getting 75 points and see how far we can push it.

Despite past performance I quite fancy us if we make the play offs.

 

[Ricky]

I think Wigan, Coventry and Walsall are there to stay and will finish above us. It's hard to predict what will happen with the rest. Peterborough and Millwall are totally unpredictable for example. If we have a strong transfer window I'd probably expect us to finish above those two, Burton and Gillingham.

 

[JonnyRed(WCFC)]

I reckon you'll finish above Coventry, think they might start on the wobbles and if we get the usual heavier pitches in january/february that won't suit their style at all and the more direct physical teams can bog them down.

I think Walsall are looking the real deal for a top 2 spot..the other one is up for grabs so keep that wet sail youve got hoisted currently and you might sneak in there, perfect timing as they say!

 

[Bladesway]

Or, more to the point, can a few of them falter & fall away (Orient-style, or Tranmere-style)?

I'd say "yes".

Just look at Bury. One of the division's very top sides for the first quarter of the season. After 12 games they were 4th, 2 pts off the automatic places. Just drawn with Wigan after having won 6 on the spin (& only having lost one all season at that stage). Able to attract very decent loanees from the two divisions above. And with their strong looking first eleven, & decent squad options especially up front, they were looking like they'd put in a very strong showing over the season & maybe even challenge for top two.

Then they go & lose 7 out of their last 10 games &, at the half-way stage, they're looking like mid-table also-rans, squeezed as they are in 12th place between Port Vale & Rochdale.

This is the sort of thing that could easily happen to any number of Burton, Gillingham, Peterboro, Walsall, Southend, even Coventry. Especially if they're raided in the Jan transfer window. Maybe not Wigan, but maybe even Wigan too.

Keep the faith & all that.

Our job is to keep winning games. Do that and anything is possible.

 

[FleaPitBlade]

Coventry may lose Adam Armstrong and Jacob Murphy - both loans due to end in January.
It's also fairly likely that bids will come in for Tom Bradshaw so it's possible Wallsall may lose their talisman.

Also to factor in is the Burton/Gills/Peterborough don't have the largest squads as we get into the busier, harder part of the season and the toll a bit of pressure can have on those that haven't been there and done it.

All if, buts and maybes but I'd say the title is anyone's from within that top 7/8.

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

Concentrate on what you can control and let other teams worry about themselves.

 

[grafikhaus]

Coventry may lose Adam Armstrong and Jacob Murphy - both loans due to end in January.

They might, but they've got James Maddison - rated (by Coventry) at £20m. There's no doubt Coventry have got an extremely good squad. If anybody can cause a collapse, it's Clough at Burton...

 

[Woodwardfan]

Studying our fixtures we have a relatively easier run until the end of March. I wonder if Adkins factored that in when he kept saying "keep in touch until the New Year and we'll take it from there".

Luck plays such a big part in promotion and Matt Done's injury yesterday (and in early season) can weigh heavily. Essentially we need Edgar, Brayford, Hammond and Sharp to keep fit followed by Coutts and Collins (IMO).

The timing of suspensions matters too. Basham's card yesterday was daft.

Oh, and lets avoid an F.A. Cup run!!

As for "keeping in touch", 12 points behind two teams is a lot with 5 more clubs sandwiched in between.

Maybe 88 points will be enough for automatic promotion, in which case we need 52 from 23 games when we have only got 36 in the first 23 games. Can we do it? Unlikely, but maybe we can but we need at least one new quality striker as we are light in that department with Done's injury record and Sammon's confidence will be even more fragile after yesterday.

 

[shorehamstreet1990]

I live in Peterborough, and the view from their fans is that they can play neat and tidy possession stuff against Chesterfield and Shrewsbury and get away with it, but against better sides they have struggled to get goals and get results. Hence yesterday's defeat to Walsall (who I think with an astute appointment like O'Driscoll will get out of this league).

We should beat the Posh at home on Saturday. Just be solid, like we did yesterday. It was nice to see Edgar and Collins looking like a partnership.

On an even more positive note, Mrs Shoreham Street came along for her first visit to BDTBL. Think she'll be coming again. Top dollar, Blades.

 

[Patrick Suffaux]

United just need to keep focusing on their next game and try to keep putting 'W' on the board. I believe that the standard of the division is poor and that those in the top six are up there on temporary form. They're all capable of sliding down the table but not all of them will. It's the nature of the division. We just need to keep winning, that's all we can do.

 

[DiggerBlade]

I live in Peterborough, and the view from their fans is that they can play neat and tidy possession stuff against Chesterfield and Shrewsbury and get away with it, but against better sides they have struggled to get goals and get results. Hence yesterday's defeat to Walsall (who I think with an astute appointment like O'Driscoll will get out of this league).

We should beat the Posh at home on Saturday. Just be solid, like we did yesterday. It was nice to see Edgar and Collins looking like a partnership.

On an even more positive note, Mrs Shoreham Street came along for her first visit to BDTBL. Think she'll be coming again. Top dollar, Blades.

Sounds like Mrs Shoreham Street picked the right game to attend for her first visit. Great result from a well drilled and committed performance. It's games like that where the wifey can see first hand what it's like to be a Blade.

UTB

 

[shorehamstreet1990]

She also got to see what it was like when we're 1-0 up and inviting a side on to us, ala first half. Like a coiled spring.

 

[nicksufc]

Walsall are the best team in the league from what I've seen, all that's stopping them finally going up is not bottling it! Romaine Sawyer ran the show at their place, if he stays fit I reckon they'll be fine. After that I'm not overly convinced by any of the top 6, reckon any of them have a collapse in them.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Difficult to say. Does anyone know when the loans of people like Dominic Samuel, George Evans etc. expire? That’s bound to have a bearing. Wallsall seem like they might be raided. Burton and Wallsall have lost their managers and whilst they haven’t been de-railed yet, that could have an adverse effect when the new guys change things around in January. I can’t see anyone falling off to the extent Tranmere did but I think some will get less points in the 2nd half of the season than they did in the first.

 

[Balham]

1danewhitehouse Evans joined Walsall in October on an initial 1 month deal but that's evidently been extended. It wouldn't surprise me if that got extended to the end of the season but equally you could see Brentford enquiring about taking him in January as Dean Smith's there now and he'd fit into their side.

On the Brentford note: they need a centre forward so I can see them going after Bradshaw in the transfer window. Walsall's finances aren't the greatest but they may think it's worth holding onto him.

If the games continue to get postponed then sides with smaller squads (Burton, Walsall, Gillingham) will struggle to maintain their form through March. Nothing stopping us being the team which clicks and puts together a run of 13 or 14 wins in the next 15 games...

 

[blade too long]

In theory any 3 of the top 15 can still go up
any 3 of the top 15 can still get automatic

Doncaster are 15th with 31 points
can they get 45 points from 23 games, to get a play off spot of course they can

Coventry havent won in 7 are their fans being as negative as us , have they blown it
Will be the end of February before we can probably cut it down to 7 or 8 for the play offs and 5 or so for the top 2
A good run of 5 or 6 wins will put any club in a strong position
Walsall and Burton are scraping the 1-0 wins
are they set up to do it for another 23 games , only time will tell
Can we catch them , , history says its possible
We have to be better , but showing signs of being better, again only time will tell

Remember Rochdale and Orient being well clear 1st and 2nd at xmas 3 years ago , both finished lower half

 

[judge]

Coventry may lose Adam Armstrong and Jacob Murphy - both loans due to end in January.
It's also fairly likely that bids will come in for Tom Bradshaw so it's possible Wallsall may lose their talisman.

Also to factor in is the Burton/Gills/Peterborough don't have the largest squads as we get into the busier, harder part of the season and the toll a bit of pressure can have on those that haven't been there and done it.

All if, buts and maybes but I'd say the title is anyone's from within that top 7/8.

But if coventry lose armstrong they will win every game
Statistics prove that

 

[bladesmanluke]

If we just keep concentrating on the next game and hopefully bagging 3 points it won't matter what they do. Genuinely believe we might win the playoffs at last this season

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Coventry havent won in 7 are their fans being as negative as us , have they blown it



Remember Rochdale and Orient being well clear 1st and 2nd at xmas 3 years ago , both finished lower half

Coventry haven't really been out of the top 5 all season but that's the same as us dropping to 12th?

Rochdale were top of league 2 2 years ago and were promoted. They were never top of our league.

Orient were top of our league 2 years ago (not 3) and finished in the playoffs losing the final to Rotherham.

Other than that, good post.

 

[Pinchy]

There's no doubt Coventry have got an extremely good squad.

Oh yes there is....

 

[Davie Blade]

She also got to see what it was like when we're 1-0 up and inviting a side on to us, ala first half. Like a coiled spring.

What's she like with 2 up?
Coiled spring?
Just asking mate.

 

[shorehamstreet1990]

On a new side to her I saw, she'd without me knowing logged into my SkyBet at HT and popped a fiver on a 3-1 scoreline. So at 3-0 she went a bit bonkers, like me. Couldn't quite understand her grin when we let them lot score..all makes sense now.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

History shows that teams have come from where we are and done it so there's no reason why it can't happen again.

We're around 10 points down on promotion form and will need 50+ points from the remaining 23 games to have any chance of top 2 but when you look at the points we've thrown away, there's no reason to believe we can't get that. I'm not convinced the likes of Walsall, Gillingham and Burton (once Cloughy starts going for the 1-0s) will necessarily repeat their form 2nd half of the season and I think Coventry and Wigan are probably the two with the best chances.

A big plus is that we have a manager who has been here and done it in this Division, and from this position before.

 

[blade too long]

Coventry haven't really been out of the top 5 all season but that's the same as us dropping to 12th?

Rochdale were top of league 2 2 years ago and were promoted. They were never top of our league..

put them the wrong way round 1st and 2nd. rochdale had hit 2nd at one point their highest ever position
but the arguments the same

 

[Fulwood Blade]

We don't need the top 6 to falter, we need the top 3 to falter.

For us to finish on 90 points we need to win 18 and lose 5 of our next 23 games.

That is a tall order.

We will easily finish 3rd to 6th playing like we are now - question is: can we finish top 2?

We actually need to grind out results, like we are doing and then see end of January/ early February - problem is, beating Man Utd and having another cup run is going to cause us serious problems

UTB

 

[blade too long]

point spreads vary every season
some seasons the bottom half all get pretty even points , which means the top dont get too far ahead
we need 2 of the top 3 to falter
I dont mind going up 25 points behind a top club as long as we get 2nd
If say wallsall get 109 points , second place could go up on 84 points
the more draws there are the more points disappear
all games can offer 3 points or 2 so the final table can differ by as much 100 points spread across it .
In 12 13 Doncaster won the league with 84pts
1 ahead of bournemouth
12 months later wolves got 103 brentford 94
Orient finished 3rd with 86 , 2 more points than Doncaster got

 

[Midland Powerhouse]

Walsall and Burton are scraping the 1-0 wins

I wouldn't say we have been scraping the 1-0 wins at all, we've won 2 games 1-0 from 14 wins. Burton have won 6 games 1-0 from 15 wins.

 

[MobileBlade]

History shows that teams have come from where we are and done it so there's no reason why it can't happen again.

We're around 10 points down on promotion form and will need 50+ points from the remaining 23 games to have any chance of top 2 but when you look at the points we've thrown away, there's no reason to believe we can't get that. I'm not convinced the likes of Walsall, Gillingham and Burton (once Cloughy starts going for the 1-0s) will necessarily repeat their form 2nd half of the season and I think Coventry and Wigan are probably the two with the best chances.

A big plus is that we have a manager who has been here and done it in this Division, and from this position before.

Actually Jim, history shows that we would be history makers if we were to do it!

This chart shows the teams who finished top and runners up for the last 10 seasons, how many points they had after 23 games and how many they finished with. With 36 points we would need some run to gain automatic promotion. The only thing in our favour is that in 2006-07, Southend and Colchester were 5th and 6th after 23 games with 37 points. The leaders at the time were Brentford who had 43 points and second were Swansea with 42 points. In other words, they were 6 and 5 points behind the top 2 not 12 as per United now. That is not to say we can't do it!



For us to gain automatic we will probably need at least 51 points from the final 23 matches. Only 3 of those clubs listed have done that (Wolves 2014, and Brighton and Southampton in 2011). Interestingly Scunthorpe also got 49 in the year they won the League so NA does have history with good 2nd halves of the season.

 

[UnitedBlade]

Actually Jim, history shows that we would be history makers if we were to do it!

This chart shows the teams who finished top and runners up for the last 10 seasons, how many points they had after 23 games and how many they finished with. With 36 points we would need some run to gain automatic promotion. The only thing in our favour is that in 2006-07, Southend and Colchester were 5th and 6th after 23 games with 37 points. The leaders at the time were Brentford who had 43 points and second were Swansea with 42 points. In other words, they were 6 and 5 points behind the top 2 not 12 as per United now. That is not to say we can't do it!

View attachment 15183

For us to gain automatic we will probably need at least 51 points from the final 23 matches. Only 3 of those clubs listed have done that (Wolves 2014, and Brighton and Southampton in 2011). Interestingly Scunthorpe also got 49 in the year they won the League so NA does have history with good 2nd halves of the season.

Comprehensive analysis ! No one in the last 10 years has had 36 points at the half way stage and gone on to get automatic promotion.

It will be a long time rolling out but I believe it will be play offs for us at best. We need to be playing well and scoring goals come play off time (for a change).

I still fancy our chances in the play offs this season.