The law of averages and history would say Championship (division 2 in my money).
Players and Managers
We went there in the Seventies having sold our best player, by recruiting good youth that was a little too young at the time, some journeymen who had odd days of form but weren't up for it and strikers that were injured (who recalls Steve Finnieston?). Does that seem familiar to anyone?
Our only times in the Top division were when we had managers in Bassett and Warnock who inspired players to play above their level and developed teams that had a tenacity and team ethic about them. We simply didn't make the right changes to keep us there once the initial impetus had gone.
Our only time in the basement was when we didn't arrest the obvious decline as above and got unlucky over two penalties. As a young man I stood on the kop and watched Don Givens do what he did. However, It should never have gone to the wire like that but we just didn't wake up for months as to what was happening to us. Again does that seem familiar?
We also fail to hold onto players that would take us up. Players such as Maguire, Naughton, Walker and Jagielka realised we were not Premiership level and as professionals wanted to play at the highest level with the associated rewards. They realised we didn't match their ambition and talent and so they left. I didn't like it but this was understandable.
Approach to risk by the Board
The fact is we are a club who don't take risks, who had a rich history up to 40 years ago, but who for many years have lacked the ambition and finance to move to the next level. The clubs like ourselves, in the main, that have done that have invested heavily and gambled, some winning (Sunderland, Stoke spring to mind) and some losing badly. We are a club that doesn't do that. I'm not saying we should, I'm saying its my opinion. I still laugh merrily when I consider how the pigs invested in Vim Jonk and Gilles de Bilde and at Leeds having to pay for years the salaries of players long gone, selling their ground and both realistically flirting with bankruptcy. To my recollection, we don't do that and our record transfer fee reflects our approach to risk. Again, I'm not saying that's bad as I consider compared to many we are a reasonably well run club but we just don't take risks.
So, our level is as a reasonably well run club at Championship level with odd forays into the Divisions either side when things go well or don't.
My concern right now is that if we don't get out of this Division this year, when it is at its easiest and when we realistically should with the resources at our disposal then we will either have to gamble and take risks to achieve promotion or accept our new level is where we have been these last few years.