ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
I'll only be quick today - as emotions don't go well when trying to be objective!
Graph 1 shows that we are actually still just one point behind my benchmark results to get 70 points and 8th place - so still plenty to hope for.
Graph 1:
So why do things feel bad?
To get into the playoffs, as a rough historical generality, you need to score about 70 and have a positive goal difference. Graph 2 shows our goals for and against and our xg goals for and against. So objectively our xg against is a bit high - but we are beating it - so we are defensively about in line for bottom playoffs. However, our xg is about 50% below what is required for playoffs - and we are just about matching that xg with actual goals. So taking the simplest conclusion from that -
our defensive performance is OK and our finishing is OK, but we are not creating, or attempting sufficeient chances. No shit Sherlock -
- but at at least the stats back up our emotion-based opinions!! Incidentally, we are bottom 3 in league tables based on overall performance in matches.
Graph 2:
My general opinions on current Wilder, for what it's worth - in 2016 we lost 3 of our first 4 - in Game 3, we were 3-0 down at home against Southend - he brought Coutts on in a quarterback type role - and we looked much better. He then stuck with something that worked and we got 100 points. In 2026 he plays Donovan inverted on the right and he looks good, but consistently comes inside and loses possession. He gets 10 minutes in a traditional role on the left against Bolton and exploits the outside space to score the winner. Wilder ignores the improvement and subsequently persists in using Donovan in an inverted role (if at all)!
Wilder 2016 was driven by outcomes - Wilder 2026 is driven by trying to convince everybody, particularly himself, that he always knows better -
- when you stop learning you only go backwards.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Graph 1 shows that we are actually still just one point behind my benchmark results to get 70 points and 8th place - so still plenty to hope for.
Graph 1:
So why do things feel bad?
To get into the playoffs, as a rough historical generality, you need to score about 70 and have a positive goal difference. Graph 2 shows our goals for and against and our xg goals for and against. So objectively our xg against is a bit high - but we are beating it - so we are defensively about in line for bottom playoffs. However, our xg is about 50% below what is required for playoffs - and we are just about matching that xg with actual goals. So taking the simplest conclusion from that -
our defensive performance is OK and our finishing is OK, but we are not creating, or attempting sufficeient chances. No shit Sherlock -
- but at at least the stats back up our emotion-based opinions!! Incidentally, we are bottom 3 in league tables based on overall performance in matches.
Graph 2:
My general opinions on current Wilder, for what it's worth - in 2016 we lost 3 of our first 4 - in Game 3, we were 3-0 down at home against Southend - he brought Coutts on in a quarterback type role - and we looked much better. He then stuck with something that worked and we got 100 points. In 2026 he plays Donovan inverted on the right and he looks good, but consistently comes inside and loses possession. He gets 10 minutes in a traditional role on the left against Bolton and exploits the outside space to score the winner. Wilder ignores the improvement and subsequently persists in using Donovan in an inverted role (if at all)!
Wilder 2016 was driven by outcomes - Wilder 2026 is driven by trying to convince everybody, particularly himself, that he always knows better -
- when you stop learning you only go backwards.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
