A Graphs and Charts Stock Take – Still Much Too Close To Call after Matchday 33

[ucandomagic]

As I posted all of my Blades progress graphs after the Luton game, I thought that I would sit back a bit and take a wide-angle view of where we are before next weekend.

Chart 1 shows the league table with the results of all of the Top 4 and Graph1 shows what that has meant over time in terms of points.

Chart 1:


Graph 1:



I’ve been through all of the upcoming fixtures and my forecast, based on the season so far and assuming no big upsets, is that:-

Blades will be second with about 97 points, behind Leeds.

However, my range is Leeds 101-105; Blades 95-99; Burnley 92-96; Sunlan 89-93.

So if Burnley were to hit 96 and Blades 95 the world is not a good place!


Seriously though, it’s all on a knife edge. Leeds top is pretty solid, but we could be 3 clear of Burnley at 3pm on April 21st and behind them at 5pm because of a deflection, a mistake or a worldy!

Of course, psychology and pressure can kick in, and 1 or 2 teams could crack – (if all of life were as predictable as goalless draws with Burnley, then things would be much simpler!)

I think we’ll be OK, though, if we stay fit – but I’m only focused on Burnley for now.
Unfortunately, that puts me in a very unpleasant frame of mind on Friday night – WAWAW!


With regard to XG stuff - Graph 2 shows that we continue to be better than average at putting away chances and much better than average at stopping chances – we’re just not great at creating chances!

Graph 2:



Full up-to-date XG Table and comparisons for the nerds – and then time for a Scotch!

XG Comparison Tables:



Full Footballxg.com Table: -


UTB & Slava Ukraini!

 

[Rufus Smalls]

Love the info.

I too would love the Filth to beat Burnley on Friday but can you just edit your post and delete that phrase that contains those capital double you’s and capital a’s, please.

UTB !

 

[jono_t2000]

Newest automated computer predicted table.

Just like water is wet, 92 pts will be enough

 

[de g.]

I’ve been through all of the upcoming fixtures and my forecast, based on the season so far and assuming no big upsets, is that:-

Blades will be second with about 97 points, behind Leeds.

However, my range is Leeds 101-105; Blades 95-99; Burnley 92-96; Sunlan 89-93.

So if Burnley were to hit 96 and Blades 95 the world is not a good place!

Seriously though, it’s all on a knife edge. Leeds top is pretty solid, but we could be 3 clear of Burnley at 3pm on April 21st and behind them at 5pm because of a deflection, a mistake or a worldy!

So you have the other three teams to improve significantly on their respective points per game?

Leeds - 2.23 to 2.54ppg, currently 2.18
Blades - 1.92 to 2.23ppg, currently 2.18
Burnley - 2.08 to 2.38ppg, currently 1.97
Sunderland - 2.08 to 2.38ppg, currently 1.88

Based on current league position, Leeds have the easiest run-in (14.3) and we have marginally the hardest (11.8 compared to 12.6 for Burnley), but I don't see that favouring them to the tune of 6 points over 13 games.

Burnley have only managed >2ppg for one 16-game stretch. Our ppg has been above 2 since game 5 (Hull A) and only dropped below 2 for one game (Midd A). Their best 13-game stretch relative to ours this season is only +2pts (29pts to our 27). So they need to significantly improve, while at the same time we significantly drop off.

To counter the pessimism, also note over the last 12 years:

• Two teams on average achieve >2ppg for the final 13 games, and never more than three in one season.
• 19 of the 24 teams in the top two places after 33 games have achieved automatic promotion.
• Of the 5 who failed after being top two, only Derby in 14/15 had a gap to 3rd bigger than ours to Burnley.

All things being equal, I'd say we're about 75% to 80% for automatic promotion. Opta has us at about 63% for autos, which based on the above I think is pessimistic.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

As I posted all of my Blades progress graphs after the Luton game, I thought that I would sit back a bit and take a wide-angle view of where we are before next weekend.

Chart 1 shows the league table with the results of all of the Top 4 and Graph1 shows what that has meant over time in terms of points.

Chart 1:
View attachment 204615

Graph 1:
View attachment 204616


I’ve been through all of the upcoming fixtures and my forecast, based on the season so far and assuming no big upsets, is that:-

Blades will be second with about 97 points, behind Leeds.

However, my range is Leeds 101-105; Blades 95-99; Burnley 92-96; Sunlan 89-93.

So if Burnley were to hit 96 and Blades 95 the world is not a good place!


Seriously though, it’s all on a knife edge. Leeds top is pretty solid, but we could be 3 clear of Burnley at 3pm on April 21st and behind them at 5pm because of a deflection, a mistake or a worldy!

Of course, psychology and pressure can kick in, and 1 or 2 teams could crack – (if all of life were as predictable as goalless draws with Burnley, then things would be much simpler!)

I think we’ll be OK, though, if we stay fit – but I’m only focused on Burnley for now.
Unfortunately, that puts me in a very unpleasant frame of mind on Friday night – WAWAW!


With regard to XG stuff - Graph 2 shows that we continue to be better than average at putting away chances and much better than average at stopping chances – we’re just not great at creating chances!

Graph 2:
View attachment 204618


Full up-to-date XG Table and comparisons for the nerds – and then time for a Scotch!

XG Comparison Tables:
View attachment 204619


Full Footballxg.com Table: -
View attachment 204620

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

A bit of different stuff here GraphMan. I love the shorter dashes on the graphs by the way.

You know what, I think you are deliberately sucking people in with the high level forecasts and quietly chuckling at the panic responses.

I’m with you on Friday - UTB & UTP!!!!

 

[Selly]

Based on current league position, Leeds have the easiest run-in (14.3) and we have marginally the hardest (11.8 compared to 12.6 for Burnley), but I don't see that favouring them to the tune of 6 points over 13 games

This also doesn't account for where you are playing a team.

A home game against Oxford is a different challenge than an away game, but a "average league position" view doesn't account for that.

When you look at it based on Home/away PpG, it's a little different.

I have a graph somewhere that shows this, I'll post it Friday after the midweek games.

 

[BalticBlade]

I love these. ucandomagic - you must have a brain the size of a whale omelette.

 

[jono_t2000]

This also doesn't account for where you are playing a team.

A home game against Oxford is a different challenge than an away game, but a "average league position" view doesn't account for that.

When you look at it based on Home/away PpG, it's a little different.

I have a graph somewhere that shows this, I'll post it Friday after the midweek games.

Correct, league position is false.

Difficulty of remaining fixtures should be calculated by avg points gained by opposition when at home or away.

Something like this (not updated since last did it)

 

[de g.]

This also doesn't account for where you are playing a team.

A home game against Oxford is a different challenge than an away game, but a "average league position" view doesn't account for that.

When you look at it based on Home/away PpG, it's a little different.

I have a graph somewhere that shows this, I'll post it Friday after the midweek games.

SUFC remaining home games average 1.11ppg away.
BFC remaining home games average 1.13ppg away (though incidentally if you take out Luton who have been abject away from home, it jumps to 1.26ppg).

SUFC remaining away games average 1.57ppg at home.
BFC remaining away games average 1.48ppg at home.

Based on above, I'd say with the exception of Monday night we have a significantly easier home run-in than Burnley. With the exception of our game against them, our away run-in is pretty much equal to theirs in difficulty, and our away form compared to their home form over the season to date points to a draw as the most likely result there.

It's football, so nothing is ever predictable, but I don't see anything that points to a five-point swing to them being something that should be anticipated. Even if we lose to Leeds and Burnley, 2ppg from the remaining 11 (22 points) should be enough to see us promoted.

 

[3megistus]

As I posted all of my Blades progress graphs after the Luton game, I thought that I would sit back a bit and take a wide-angle view of where we are before next weekend.

Chart 1 shows the league table with the results of all of the Top 4 and Graph1 shows what that has meant over time in terms of points.

Chart 1:
View attachment 204615

Graph 1:
View attachment 204616


I’ve been through all of the upcoming fixtures and my forecast, based on the season so far and assuming no big upsets, is that:-

Blades will be second with about 97 points, behind Leeds.

However, my range is Leeds 101-105; Blades 95-99; Burnley 92-96; Sunlan 89-93.

So if Burnley were to hit 96 and Blades 95 the world is not a good place!


Seriously though, it’s all on a knife edge. Leeds top is pretty solid, but we could be 3 clear of Burnley at 3pm on April 21st and behind them at 5pm because of a deflection, a mistake or a worldy!

Of course, psychology and pressure can kick in, and 1 or 2 teams could crack – (if all of life were as predictable as goalless draws with Burnley, then things would be much simpler!)

I think we’ll be OK, though, if we stay fit – but I’m only focused on Burnley for now.
Unfortunately, that puts me in a very unpleasant frame of mind on Friday night – WAWAW!


With regard to XG stuff - Graph 2 shows that we continue to be better than average at putting away chances and much better than average at stopping chances – we’re just not great at creating chances!

Graph 2:
View attachment 204618


Full up-to-date XG Table and comparisons for the nerds – and then time for a Scotch!

XG Comparison Tables:
View attachment 204619


Full Footballxg.com Table: -
View attachment 204620

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

Epic stuff. Thank you!