ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
A scrappy game – but that’s always the way at Millwall. 4 points from those 2 away games is fantastic though. The game was won by the only piece of real quality, started by the only player that none of us thought would be playing. A Brazilian quality ball to a quality Brazilian player, an immaculate touch and then rolled to a striker busting a gut to be in the right place. It all looks so simple when everything is done to perfection!
That game was a battle – but when you look at the graphs it seems very significant. I didn’t think it was going to be our day early on – when Saville hit that shot with his left foot the camera was right behind him and it was going just inside the post. Here we go, I thought, then it curled about a foot and came back off the post and I thought – maybe it is our day! A quality goal, followed by scrapping it out – with Tom Davies (my motm) coming on and demonstrating his Premier League class – and we were home and hosed. The only downside was Vini limping off. We can probably get by without him until Boxing Day, but we could certainly do with him fit by then.
So, as mentioned above, on to the graphs:-
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 42 points, comparing to my benchmarks, for the first time we are now 2 ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with a 2 point deduction. Not only that, but we now have 2 very winnable games before Christmas.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 42 points after 20 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 8 points ahead of the 34 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 7 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and only 4 points behind Warnock in 05/06. Take that in – we thought 18/19 with Wilder was great and we are 8 points ahead of that season with a 2-point deduction!
So this is now hugely our best Championship start since 2005, and is way better than our last 2 promotion seasons – and that includes that deduction!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are once again loud and proud at the top of the pile. Sunderland and Burnley had a blip yesterday, and there is the beginning of a little gap appearing to 3rd place. Leeds went behind early on and stayed behind for 40 minutes until the 54th minute, but then showed how strong they are with 3 goals. But that is an unbelievable 13 clean sheets in 20 games for the Blades – and that is how you get promoted.
League Table:
I’ll get all the Championship XG stats on Friday, and post them along with a prediction for the Plymouth game – I just hope we can be ruthlessly professional on Saturday.
So, just like Daniel in the Colosseum, we slayed the Lions!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
That game was a battle – but when you look at the graphs it seems very significant. I didn’t think it was going to be our day early on – when Saville hit that shot with his left foot the camera was right behind him and it was going just inside the post. Here we go, I thought, then it curled about a foot and came back off the post and I thought – maybe it is our day! A quality goal, followed by scrapping it out – with Tom Davies (my motm) coming on and demonstrating his Premier League class – and we were home and hosed. The only downside was Vini limping off. We can probably get by without him until Boxing Day, but we could certainly do with him fit by then.
So, as mentioned above, on to the graphs:-
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 42 points, comparing to my benchmarks, for the first time we are now 2 ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with a 2 point deduction. Not only that, but we now have 2 very winnable games before Christmas.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 42 points after 20 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 8 points ahead of the 34 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 7 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and only 4 points behind Warnock in 05/06. Take that in – we thought 18/19 with Wilder was great and we are 8 points ahead of that season with a 2-point deduction!
So this is now hugely our best Championship start since 2005, and is way better than our last 2 promotion seasons – and that includes that deduction!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are once again loud and proud at the top of the pile. Sunderland and Burnley had a blip yesterday, and there is the beginning of a little gap appearing to 3rd place. Leeds went behind early on and stayed behind for 40 minutes until the 54th minute, but then showed how strong they are with 3 goals. But that is an unbelievable 13 clean sheets in 20 games for the Blades – and that is how you get promoted.
League Table:
I’ll get all the Championship XG stats on Friday, and post them along with a prediction for the Plymouth game – I just hope we can be ruthlessly professional on Saturday.
So, just like Daniel in the Colosseum, we slayed the Lions!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
