Blades Managers - Trend Spotting

[Sothall_Blade]

Below is a list of Blades manager's since 1980 and I've ranked them in order of how successful they were at United (opinions will vary of course but not by too much I shouldn't think).

I've also included columns showing their previous level of experience and previous level of success (from none to high):-



The shocking conclusion revealed by this painstaking research is that where United have appointed a manager with a high level of previous experience and success, he has subsequently performed well with United.

On the flip side, where we have appointed a manager with little or no previous experience and success, he has gone on to perform badly with United.

The only exceptions to the rule are Spackman and Adams who've bucked the trend in opposite directions.

When presented in this form, the evidence seems so conclusive it beggars belief that the board opted to go down the inexperienced manager route again. Hopefully, our next manager will be selected from a list of managers with both experience and success on their CV.

Feel free to suggest revisions to my chart and/or my conclusion...

 

[Darren]

Below is a list of Blades manager's since 1980 and I've ranked them in order of how successful they were at United (opinions will vary of course but not by too much I shouldn't think).

I've also included columns showing their previous level of experience and previous level of success (from none to high):-

View attachment 6446

The shocking conclusion revealed by this painstaking research is that where United have appointed a manager with a high level of previous experience and success, he has subsequently performed well with United.

On the flip side, where we have appointed a manager with little or no previous experience and success, he has gone on to perform badly with United.

The only exceptions to the rule are Spackman and Adams who've bucked the trend in opposite directions.

When presented in this form, the evidence seems so conclusive it beggars belief that the board opted to go down the inexperienced manager route again. Hopefully, our next manager will be selected from a list of managers with both experience and success on their CV.

Feel free to suggest revisions to my chart and/or my conclusion...

Very interesting. Changes I would suggest:

Porterfield: I think his success should be "high". He had one and half seasons as manager at Rotherham and had taken them to the 3rd Division championship. He couldn't have done any better.

Kendall: he won four major trophies as Everton manager including the league title twice. No other manager gets close to that. You need a "very high" category

Blackwell: I would put him above Spackman in the ranking list. He took us to within an ace of the PL. Spackman jumped ship before he acheived anything.

Robson: given the resources he had, I would put him below everyone except Adams and Weir.

 

[Grecian2000]

Without any particular research (i.e. just a feeling really), wouldn't Hoofy have managed more games and clubs than Porterfield when he was appointed? If so perhaps their MEDIUM/LOW experience ratings should be swapped. I would say Porters success with getting Rotherham out of Div 3 would rank his acheivements higher as well.

Other than that, good call, if not a little obvious and something a lot of people were saying when we were looking at managers in the summer (i.e. we want experience over Morgan/Page etc.).

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Without any particular research (i.e. just a feeling really), wouldn't Hoofy have managed more games and clubs than Porterfield when he was appointed? If so perhaps their MEDIUM/LOW experience ratings should be swapped. I would say Porters success with getting Rotherham out of Div 3 would rank his acheivements higher as well.

Other than that, good call, if not a little obvious and something a lot of people were saying when we were looking at managers in the summer (i.e. we want experience over Morgan/Page etc.).

Who do you mean by hoofy? I lose track of the nicknames.
Do you mean "Ol' Big Nose", "Semi-Pro Goalie" or "Quick Fix"?

Either way, I guess you're right. I thought Porterfield was a manager at Rotherham for a few seasons but it appears not.

 

[Darren]

Trying to rank managers perhaps more objectively, maybe we do the following rules:

1. Top achievement is a promotion. The more promotions and to a higher division the higher you rank.
2. Getting to the play offs is the next best achievement. The nearer you got to automatic and the higher division the higher you rank.
3. If you didn't get promotion or in the play offs, you are then ranked on your highest league position, relative to when you got the job - so if you got the job when we were 15th in the 3rd Division and got us to 7th, you would do better than someone who got the job when we were pushing for the play offs in the 2nd Division and ended up finishing 15th in the 2nd Division.
4. For managers who didn't finish a season, they are judge on where we were when they left.
5. Relegations obviously get you debit marks, but are not offset against promotions. This may sound strange, but all managers have a limited shelf life and will fail towards the end of that shelf life. Otherwise, they wouldn't lose their job.

That gives the following rankings:

1. Bassett - 2 promotions - one to the top division.
2. Porterfield - 2 promotions
3. Warnock - 1 promotion
4. Blackwell - 1 play off to the Pl, very near to automatic
5. Wilson - 1 play off to the 2nd Division - very near to automatic
6. Kendall - 1 play off to the PL - a fair way off automatic
7. Thompson: 1 play off -miles off automatic
8. Spackman - took over a team that had finish 5th. In a roughly similar position when he left.
9. McEwan - we were around 6th in the 2nd tier when he took over. His highest finish was 9th in the 2nd tier
10. Bruce - took over a team that had finished 6th - we finished 9th in his only season.
11. Speed: took over a team that was struggling in the 2nd tier. We stayed struggling until he left.
12. Heath: took over a team that had finished 9th in the 2nd tier. We were in the relegation zone when he left.
13. Robson - took over a team relegated from the PL and favourites for promotion. About 15th in the 2nd tier when he left.
14. Adams: took over a struggling team in the 2nd tier and saw us relegated.
15. Weir: took over a team that finished 5th in the third tier. We are now in the relegation zone.
16. Peters: Took over a mid table team in the 3rd tier and saw us relegated.

 

[georgebernardshaw]

I haven't checked them all, simply because I can't be arsed, but Wiki quotes the following stats:

Danny Wilson United Manager from May 2011 to April 2013 (sacked when in play-off position)

106 games Won 55 Lost 20 Drawn 31 Win Percentage 51.89%

A revealing set of statistics when weighed against our current situation.

 

[Blade for Sale]

The conclusions I would draw from that are:

- We have only ever employed British managers
- We have been shit most of the time for the past 90 years
- We should therefore appoint a foreign manager

I'm still in the Weir In camp by the way, at least until after 15 league matches. If we are still floundering then Juan Pierre Slobadobovic all the way.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Trying to rank managers perhaps more objectively, maybe we do the following rules:

1. Top achievement is a promotion. The more promotions and to a higher division the higher you rank.
2. Getting to the play offs is the next best achievement. The nearer you got to automatic and the higher division the higher you rank.
3. If you didn't get promotion or in the play offs, you are then ranked on your highest league position, relative to when you got the job - so if you got the job when we were 15th in the 3rd Division and got us to 7th, you would do better than someone who got the job when we were pushing for the play offs in the 2nd Division and ended up finishing 15th in the 2nd Division.
4. For managers who didn't finish a season, they are judge on where we were when they left.
5. Relegations obviously get you debit marks, but are not offset against promotions. This may sound strange, but all managers have a limited shelf life and will fail towards the end of that shelf life. Otherwise, they wouldn't lose their job.

That gives the following rankings:

1. Bassett - 2 promotions - one to the top division.
2. Porterfield - 2 promotions
3. Warnock - 1 promotion
4. Blackwell - 1 play off to the Pl, very near to automatic
5. Wilson - 1 play off to the 2nd Division - very near to automatic
6. Kendall - 1 play off to the PL - a fair way off automatic
7. Thompson: 1 play off -miles off automatic

Warnock's promotion was to the top division + you've missed a play-off final and near to automatic.
I think you have to give Spackman at least half the credit for that season along with Thompson, given that he didn't leave until February.
I also think you have to take Cup success into account as well:-

Bassett - 1 Semi Final
Warnock - 2 Semi Finals
Spackman/Thompson - 1 Semi Final

 

[Darren]

Weir is saved from last place as we haven't yet been relegated. Obviously, if we are with him in charge, he will get last place by a mile...

 

[Darren]

Warnock's promotion was to the top division + you've missed a play-off final and near to automatic.
I think you have to give Spackman at least half the credit for that season along with Thompson, given that he didn't leave until February.
I also think you have to take Cup success into account as well:-

Bassett - 1 Semi Final
Warnock - 2 Semi Finals
Spackman/Thompson - 1 Semi Final

We were about 10 points off automatic in 2003, so it wasn't really "near".

I think you can validly argue between Warnock and Porterfield for 2nd, but given that Porterfield took us from the 4th to 2nd division promotion contenders in the space of 4 years and we we still a top half 2nd division team when he was sacked whereas Warnock took over 6 years to move up one division and saw us relegated after one season, I think Porterfield shades it.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

We were about 10 points off automatic in 2003, so it wasn't really "near".

I think you can validly argue between Warnock and Porterfield for 2nd, but given that Porterfield took us from the 4th to 2nd division promotion contenders in the space of 4 years and we we still a top half 2nd division team when he was sacked whereas Warnock took over 6 years to move up one division and saw us relegated after one season, I think Porterfield shades it.

You're still ignoring two Cup Semi Finals for Warnock which shades it for me.
We'd also have been a lot closer than ten points to automatic in 2003 if it weren't for the cup runs.
Plus Porterfield only finished 3rd in the third tier in 1984 (same as Warnock in the 2nd tier).
It would only have been good enough for the play-offs and maybe no promotion.

 

[Grecian2000]

We'd also have been a lot closer than ten points to automatic in 2003 if it weren't for the cup runs.
Plus Porterfield only finished 3rd in the third tier in 1984 (same as Warnock in the 2nd tier).
It would only have been good enough for the play-offs and maybe no promotion.

Disagree entirely with the first point above. When we played Leeds in the LC (i.e. the real start of the season) we were already 10 points behind the first two. That game kick started us and we maintained the gap all season (the FA Cup team had a different front pairing as Windass/Kabba were cup tied anyway). This "cup runs" stopping us getting promoted only surfaced after we'd not showed up in Cardiff as the first line excuse.

As for the second point, Porterfield got us promoted under the rules in operation, Warnock didn't. If the mediocrity rewarding play offs had been in operation under Porterfield I doubt he'd have been sacked when 6th (i.e. a playoff spot) in '86 when the chance of automatic had gone.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Disagree entirely with the first point above. When we played Leeds in the LC (i.e. the real start of the season) we were already 10 points behind the first two. That game kick started us and we maintained the gap all season (the FA Cup team had a different front pairing as Windass/Kabba were cup tied anyway). This "cup runs" stopping us getting promoted only surfaced after we'd not showed up in Cardiff as the first line excuse.

We were only 3 points behind Leicester at certain points in the season (e.g. 17th Jan 2003).
There were quite a few league games near the end of the season where we fielded under-strength teams.
Brown deliberately got himself suspended from at least one league game, so he could play in the cup!
I’m not saying we would have been ten points better off without the cup runs but I’ve no doubts we would have got a few more.

 

[KenMcnaughtsNuts]

I think the Robson and Wilson success ratings are a little generous.

Every club Robson managed before us, he got relegated. Despite being backed heavily. If 2 promotions and 4 or 5 (not sure which) relegations counts as medium success, maybe this management lark is easier than i thought. One of the promotions he had the cash to buy Paul Gascoigne amongst others. He had money coming out of his ears to get them up. They also had the likes of Paul Merson, Hamilton Ricard, Andy Townsend, Craig Hignett, Mikkel Beck, Gianluca Festa, the list is endless. Basically, any idiot could have got them promoted.

Wilson has had a constant record of the odd promotion thrown in between all the failure and sackings. 2 or 3 promotions in 20 years, most of them at levels and clubs who are actually going for promotion, isn't awe inspiring stuff.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Resources and situation have a massive bearing on this, Warnock took 6 full seasons to take us up and brought us straight down yet is considered a success. He probably wouldn't have seen his 3rd season with us in this day and age despite the fact he took over, pretty much as it has been recently with McCAbe squeezing the purse strings tightly.

I also wonder what would have happened if Wilson had maybe taken over when Adams did, or we'd deservedly been promoted in his 1st season. Could all have been so different.

Give Weir the time Warnock had, who knows

 

[SwissBlade]

For a little bit of balance stick the time in the job beside them all. Bassett and Warnock both had years at the club. kendall, wilson, bruce and blackwell all had more than a sesson. Adams, speed, spackman, weir, Thompson, Heath and Robson all had months.

Perhaps the answer is time?

 

[Selly]

For a little bit of balance stick the time in the job beside them all. Bassett and Warnock both had years at the club. kendall, wilson, bruce and blackwell all had more than a sesson. Adams, speed, spackman, weir, Thompson, Heath and Robson all had months.

Perhaps the answer is time?

Ah, but did they get time because they were sucessful, or were they sucessful because they got time??

 

[SwissBlade]

Ah, but did they get time because they were sucessful, or were they sucessful because they got time??

At different times in the job they had success and failure.

Bassett went how many games in the old div 1 before that first win? Was it 13, god my memory is shocking.

Warnock got booed off with small rumblings to get rid at the end of the season before we went up the next year.

 

[cooperblade]

We were about 10 points off automatic in 2003, so it wasn't really "near".

We finished 12 points behind a team who in any season after 02/03 would've been deducted 10 points for going into admin.

 

[Kenilworth]

We were only 3 points behind Leicester at certain points in the season (e.g. 17th Jan 2003).
There were quite a few league games near the end of the season where we fielded under-strength teams.
Brown deliberately got himself suspended from at least one league game, so he could play in the cup!
I’m not saying we would have been ten points better off without the cup runs but I’ve no doubts we would have got a few more.

And don't forget that Leicester went into admin that season but didn't get docked any points (the rules changed after this as they won the league at a canter but kept all their best players without honouring their debts).

 

[SwissBlade]

And Bassett took us down in his first season.

 

[KenMcnaughtsNuts]

And Bassett took us down in his first season.

But the team was shite and he'd only been here 5 minutes. I know the same thing could be said about Adams and for what it's worth i thought we should have kept him. I usually think a manager deserves to start a season. You get time to bring in your own players, sort the training and tactics out pre-season etc. I'd be much more inclined to sack a manager quickly when they've had all that in their favour, like Robson and Weir, than someone thrown in the deep end mid-season with a team that's sinking fast.

 

[Selly]

At different times in the job they had success and failure.

Bassett went how many games in the old div 1 before that first win? Was it 13, god my memory is shocking.

Warnock got booed off with small rumblings to get rid at the end of the season before we went up the next year.

I think the difference between them and our current situation is:

Bassett - had just won back to back promotions
Warnock - had saved us from relegation, despite a shoestring budget, then run the Triple Assault season, before he was booed

Weir - has done the sum total of fuck all ever...

 

[Balham]

But the team was shite and he'd only been here 5 minutes. I know the same thing could be said about Adams and for what it's worth i thought we should have kept him. I usually think a manager deserves to start a season. You get time to bring in your own players, sort the training and tactics out pre-season etc. I'd be much more inclined to sack a manager quickly when they've had all that in their favour, like Robson and Weir, than someone thrown in the deep end mid-season with a team that's sinking fast.

Hell no. Adams was a disaster for us.

Adams and Weir share similarities in terms of their on-pitch success as United manager(!) but there's a key difference: Weir knows what he wants to do but can't get it to work whereas with "Alehouse" Adams, I never got the feeling that he had a clue what he was doing.

I'm probably in a very small minority but if it was my choice between Adams and Weir, I'd take Weir...but I'd tell him to get on the phone to Walter Smith and offer him a job as Assistant Manager (Experience).

 

[Darren]

Hell no. Adams was a disaster for us.

Adams and Weir share similarities in terms of their on-pitch success as United manager(!) but there's a key difference: Weir knows what he wants to do but can't get it to work whereas with "Alehouse" Adams, I never got the feeling that he had a clue what he was doing.

I'm probably in a very small minority but if it was my choice between Adams and Weir, I'd take Weir...but I'd tell him to get on the phone to Walter Smith and offer him a job as Assistant Manager (Experience).

The mystery with Adams is that he has a track record as a reasonably good lower level manager - four promotions to his name as of now. Why he failed so spectaculary at United is an interesting point.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

I've made a few of the suggested tweaks and added the level that each of our managers started their managerial career at:



When appointing an experienced manager, those that started at the lowest levels have done best (again with Adams being the only notable exception).

So based on United's recent history our next manager should be experienced, previously successful and have started learning his trade in non-league.

Evans (Rotherham) and Cox (Mansfield) spring to my mind.

 

[Kenilworth]

Anybody believe our lot will triumph against Mickey Adams Port Vale mob when they come to town soon?
He's that shit he will bring a team to beat ours - again


Oh Shit! I can feel another poll coming on!

 

[Kenilworth]

So based on United's recent history our next manager should be experienced, previously successful and have started learning his trade in non-league.

Maybe that is where Weir is trying to get to before he sees some success?

 

[Darren]

I've made a few of the suggested tweaks and added the level that each of our managers started their managerial career at:

View attachment 6447

When appointing an experienced manager, those that started at the lowest levels have done best (again with Adams being the only notable exception).

So based on United's recent history our next manager should be experienced, previously successful and have started learning his trade in non-league.

Evans (Rotherham) and Cox (Mansfield) spring to my mind.

Just looked at Cox's CV and I am impressed. He took village club Eastwood Town to the top of the 6th tier of English football (they weren't allowed to progress further as their ground was too small) and then won the conference with Mansfield and they are now 5th in the 4th Division. He's about Weir's age.

I am sure we can pay him quite a bit more than Mansfield. Maybe we can swap him for biggish name Weir? Though I doubt Mansfield would be that daft...

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Just looked at Cox's CV and I am impressed. He took village club Eastwood Town to the top of the 6th tier of English football (they weren't allowed to progress further as their ground was too small) and then won the conference with Mansfield and they are now 5th in the 4th Division. He's about Weir's age.

I am sure we can pay him quite a bit more than Mansfield. Maybe we can swap him for biggish name Weir? Though I doubt Mansfield would be that daft...

We have the wherewithal to pay compensation now. If we're not a step up from Mansfield then it's time to gi' oer.