Manager comparison - the clock is ticking

[BladeFisher]

It wasn't until I did some delving about our recent managers that the really worrying thing about Weir hit home.

1. Weir is a worse manager than anyone else in recent times by a long way. His win percentage and points per game is 2/3 of Alehouse Adams at 14.5% and 0.57pts/game.

2. It might be reasonable to expect an average manager to achieve a 33% win rate. Given there are only 39 games to go that would be 13 wins i.e. 39 points, we would need 51 probably to be safe but maybe as low as 47/48 depending on the crapiness of other teams.

3. Morgan's record was twice as good as Weir's 28.5% or 1.14pts/game.

4. Looking at Adams, Morgan and Heath's record if they took over now, using the record they had at BL they would get 32 points (Adams), 48 points (Heath) and 49 points (Morgan). I am not advocating this, just extrapolating (using past performance for illustrative purposes). Weir is on course for 26 points.

5. At the other end of the spectrum Wilson got 51.8% win percentage and 1.85pts/game, Porterfield 42.8% 1.55pts/game and Warnock 42.5% 1.53pts/game.

6. McEwan was about average with a 31.4% win percentage and 1.34pts/game (a W1 D1 L1 average would give 1.33pts/game and over a season in L1 would give 61pts about mid table)

In essence leaving Weir any longer than the next three games without any improvement in results is likely to result in a disastrous season. It is that bad. If results get better good but it is now a results business.

Scunthorpe won 13 games last season and went down. At this rate where are the next twelve wins coming from? Pompey would still have gone down without a points deduction. Colchester survived with 14 wins.

I wonder if HRH has a get out of jail (banged up abroad in S2 card) if we go down?

 

[alcoblade]

Interesting stuff. Let's hope the low number of games means the sample is not reflective of the season.

Someone wrote somewhere that we have Port Vale in mid October. That would give assumed loan signings a few games to make an impression, and Weir a few more to demonstrate significant improvement.

I think we should hold out until then.

UTB

 

[metalblade]

After hearing him this morning saying he would not contemplate playing with two strikers my thoughts are the sooner he goes the better and he can take his fookin haggis with him, any manager who pulls every man back to defend a corner is an utter wanker anyways ask Bryan Robson.

 

[alcoblade]

Port Vale would be a pre season, 12 league games and 3 cup games - and plenty of new faces. At that point it would really be time to start judging, and considering our options.

UTB

 

[alcoblade]

After hearing him this morning saying he would not contemplate playing with two strikers my thoughts are the sooner he goes the better and he can take his fookin haggis with him, any manager who pulls every man back to defend a corner is an utter wanker anyways ask Bryan Robson.

I didn't hear that - was that he wouldn't play 2 strikers at any point of any game?

UTB

 

[Sheff de party]

It wasn't until I did some delving about our recent managers that the really worrying thing about Weir hit home.



I wonder if HRH has a get out of jail (banged up abroad in S2 card) if we go down?

You don't seriously think we'll get relegated do you?

That's the funniest thing I've read on here for months.

 

[alcoblade]

You don't seriously think we'll get relegated do you?

That's the funniest thing I've read on here for months.

Am I missing the joke (seriously)?

UTB

 

[Pedro Verde]

I didn't hear that - was that he wouldn't play 2 strikers at any point of any game?

UTB

IIRC he said 2 strikers was not the way to go and he would continue with one up front as hardly any successful team play with 2 up front anymore

 

[alcoblade]

IIRC he said 2 strikers was not the way to go and he would continue with one up front as hardly any successful team play with 2 up front anymore

I suppose we'd need to define "successful". More relevant, in my view, is that the teams that keep beating us every week seem have 2 up front.

UTB

 

[BladeFisher]

You don't seriously think we'll get relegated do you?

That's the funniest thing I've read on here for months.

At the moment I would say there is a 50% chance yes.

 

[Kenilworth]

IIRC he said 2 strikers was not the way to go and he would continue with one up front as hardly any successful team play with 2 up front anymore

Seriously? Did he say that?
He is definitely applying the FIFA coaching manual to the letter but not making allowances for the poorer standard of players who cannot play that way.

If he is to persist with 1 up front and never have 2 strikers then I want him out now.
He hasn't got the squad to play only one up front.
He's in denial if he thinks it will work in this division.
That's a recipe for disaster in this league. Well get turned over all too easily by physically stronger teams as our lads don't have the quality to make the difference in class pay.

Big, big mistake IMO.
His days are numbered.

 

[Sheff de party]

Am I missing the joke (seriously)?

UTB

7 games in and you think a team with the players we have is going down? You really are giving up at the first hurdle. It's a bad patch. I know we need players in important positions, but relegation is just hyperbole.

 

[Sheff de party]

At the moment I would say there is a 50% chance yes.

Respectfully, that figure is plucked out of the air. We've hardly had any games and you're giving up? bad run yes, but 50:50 for relegation is crazy talk, it really is. Stop panicking.

 

[Sheff de party]

Seriously? Did he say that?

If he is to persist with 1 up front and never have 2 strikers then I want him out now.
He hasn't got the squad to play only one up front.
He's in denial if he thinks it will work in this division.
That's a recipe for disaster in this league. Well get turned over all too easily by physically stronger teams as our lads don't have the quality to make the difference in class pay.
.

I completely agree. You can never in management say "I'll never do" anything really. Suspensions, injuries, new signings, sales. They all make a difference. You need to pick the best team you have based on who you're playing. If he's decided he'll never play with 2 up top, he may as well quit management now.

 

[Kenilworth]

I completely agree. You can never in management say "I'll never do" anything really. Suspensions, injuries, new signings, sales. They all make a difference. You need to pick the best team you have based on who you're playing. If he's decided he'll never play with 2 up top, he may as well quit management now.

Yep. If he signed Drogba or van Persie then we might have a chance.
As it is we are playing a 19 year old who has never scored a senior goal.
Blinding logic that is. FFS

 

[Kev Gee]

You don't seriously think we'll get relegated do you?

That's the funniest thing I've read on here for months.

People probably said the same thing when we went down to Div 4 last time.

No football team is too big to be relegated.

 

[alcoblade]

7 games in and you think a team with the players we have is going down? You really are giving up at the first hurdle. It's a bad patch. I know we need players in important positions, but relegation is just hyperbole.

I think the team we have and the formation we are using has a good chance of leading to relegation. I think you are way too complacent.

I haven't given uip at the first hurdle. I hope / expect that we will sign the players needed. However, I don't accept that this piss poor start was necessary and would have been avoided if we'd taken a pragmantic approach about the abilities of the existing squad. That decision has turned this season into one where we're fearing relegation rather than hoping for promotion.

UTB

 

[Lampiao]

7 games in and you think a team with the players we have is going down?

We said that under Blackwell, Speed and Adams - waiting for those managers to get it right cost us. Mind the three managers in one season wasn't too helpful either.
Solution - as with United always - hold your breath it'll be a bumpy ride, and wait for the disappointment at the end

 

[LardSardine]

People probably said the same thing when we went down to Div 4 last time.

No football team is too big to be relegated.

Yes, I thought that only a few years ago when we go relegated to L1. Surely no team that constantly fought for promotion would be relegation candidates, but that's exactly what we were, and there's no reason why it couldn't happen again. That's not even taking into account that this is United we're talking about, who can always conjure up the worst scenario! I don't think we will go down, but I certainly won't say we can't!

 

[Sothall_Blade]

IIRC he said 2 strikers was not the way to go and he would continue with one up front as hardly any successful teams play with 2 up front anymore

The successful teams in this division last season were Doncaster, Bournemouth, Yeovil and Brentford.
The year before it was Charlton, Sheff Wed, Huddersfield and ourselves.
How many of those teams played 1 up front? How many played 2 up front?
I know that we played 2 up front and so did Wednesday, I think Huddersfield did as well.
How about the others? (Genuine question, as I tend to concentrate on us)
How many of the teams who've beaten us this season played one up front?

Is Weir's underlying philosophy correct or is it based on current top Premiership/Champions League thinking because he has no experience of League One?

 

[BladeFisher]

Respectfully, that figure is plucked out of the air. We've hardly had any games and you're giving up? bad run yes, but 50:50 for relegation is crazy talk, it really is. Stop panicking.

Hi bud, no look at the maths and work it out for yourself. If an aveage manager was to get 1.3 pts/game i.e every 3 games on average he gets 4 points by winning one, drawing, one and losing one then Weir is going to have to do something exceptional to stay up. We are now in a relegation fight. Leaving it till Christmas is plain silly if there is no improvement. In another 3 games he'll have 36 to play so on average that's 48 points plus the four we've got if we get zilch in the next three games. That'll make us just about on the drop zone.

It isn't panicking. It's spelling out the blindingly obvious. Until you look at it that way, mathematically, it is easy to think it is 'panicking' but wait until Christmas and it will at this rate of points per game be simply too late to avert relegation short of a Bassettesque turn around, and he was an experienced manager!

Judging by yours and others views on the performances, that info colours my views. If we were doing well in performance terms but falling short in terms of results, then there is hope, but by all accounts the results and performances are just diabolical with little evidence they are likely to change. Tic toc.

 

[oldblade]

People probably said the same thing when we went down to Div 4 last time.

No football team is too big to be relegated.

Nobody seriously thought we would go down at any stage during that season, until about 4-40PM on the final day of the season when Walsall scored.

 

[oldblade]

It wasn't until I did some delving about our recent managers that the really worrying thing about Weir hit home.

1. Weir is a worse manager than anyone else in recent times by a long way. His win percentage and points per game is 2/3 of Alehouse Adams at 14.5% and 0.57pts/game.

After 7 league games Adams had a nil per cent win rate, and a total of 3 points.

 

[alcoblade]

After 7 league games Adams had a nil per cent win rate, and a total of 3 points.

.....and that worked out well!



UTB

 

[OllyBlade]

There is a risk in thinking that 2 up front will instantly solve our problems. We hardly created much for the second half of last season playing 2 up front. There are deeper issues in the team. The pace of our attacks, the lack of confidence leading to a refusal to keep trying things, the way heads drop when we concede... These are problems 2 up front will not solve.

 

[bartman]

There is a risk in thinking that 2 up front will instantly solve our problems. We hardly created much for the second half of last season playing 2 up front. There are deeper issues in the team. The pace of our attacks, the lack of confidence leading to a refusal to keep trying things, the way heads drop when we concede... These are problems 2 up front will not solve.

you are right but also the current system leaves us narrow and teams just press through the middle and then attach down the wings where there is often two players against one full back.

The team is to careful on the ball, trying to make sure the pass is right and ensuring we keep possession. No one appears to be prepared to gamble and move into a more attacking position to receive the ball. On Saturday, MacFadzean came on and took up a wide position and attacked the full back. Trouble was we only still had one in the box to received the ball.

For me,the Crawley game is the time to review things. I am assuming we will lose at Wolves so we need 4 points from the two home games as a minimum. If we lose all 3 games(or get less than 3 points out of them),I think he will be sacked.

 

[BladeFisher]

After 7 league games Adams had a nil per cent win rate, and a total of 3 points.

He'd also lost fewer games