Xg Vs Mb

[TheFlashingBlade]

OK OK, I know lots of you think Xg is as dodgy as Dozy, but it’s not completely without meaning.

Yes, I was there last night and had more time than most to fume . . . errr, I mean to rationally reflect on the game . . . on the way home (we live in London) and felt that we were deservedly well beaten by the better team who out-thought, out-fought and out-played us. Fair play to Boro, they were as good as we weren’t.

BUT . . . despite what the scoreline said (the only thing that matters) and what my eyes told me and what the wrist-slashers on here would have you believe, was it really THAT bad? A quick glance at the Xg would suggest not.

Blades 2.52 - Boro 1.25

Eh? That’s not what my eyes saw, but there it is in black and white. Well, blue and white.

Actually, now I think about it that WAS what my eyes saw. We missed good chances that we should have buried, and they smashed in lesser chances that they shouldn’t have.

Of course, Xg is just meaningless made up nonsense in the world of ‘what if’ - they had three times our number of goals, which like I said is the only thing that matters when it comes to divvying up the points - but still it does put things in slightly rosier perspective this morning.

The bottom line is not everyone else we play is going to overperform their Xg by 2.5 times at the same time as we underperform ours by 2.5 times.

That’s what I CHOOSE to take out of last night’s chastening. We’re still in a fantastic position . . . 7 points, 1 game in hand, and +9 goal difference above a Borocelona team who we could have, and statistically should, have beaten on another night.

Keep the faith.

 

[Bladesman]

We could and should have scored another goal. Despite being poor we created some great chances.

 

[Sheffsteel]

OK OK, I know lots of you think Xg is as dodgy as Dozy, but it’s not completely without meaning.

Yes, I was there last night and had more time than most to fume . . . errr, I mean to rationally reflect on the game . . . on the way home (we live in London) and felt that we were deservedly well beaten by the better team who out-thought, out-fought and out-played us. Fair play to Boro, they were as good as we weren’t.
BUT . . . despite what the scoreline said (the only thing that matters) and what my eyes told me and what the wrist-slashers on here would have you believe, was it really THAT bad? A quick glance at the Xg would suggest not.

Blades 2.52 - Boro 1.25

Eh? That’s not what my eyes saw, but there it is in black and white. Well, blue and white.
Actually, now I think about it that WAS what my eyes saw. We missed good chances that we should have buried, and they smashed in lesser chances that they shouldn’t have.
Of course, Xg is just meaningless made up nonsense in the world of ‘what if’ - they had three times our number of goals, which like I said is the only thing that matters when it comes to divvying up the points - but still it does put things in slightly rosier perspective this morning.

The bottom line is not everyone else we play is going to overperform their Xg by 2.5 times at the same time as we underperform ours by 2.5 times.
That’s what I CHOOSE to take out of last night’s chastening. We’re still in a fantastic position . . . 7 points, 1 game in hand, and +9 goal difference above a Borocelona team who we could have, and statistically should, have beaten on another night.

Keep the faith.

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Wow...that's quite funny....was just about to start a new thread regarding the XG for the match but you beat me too it.

There's a general theme in all our matches this season.
Even when we play a bit crap and struggle, Hecky will still go on about how he was pleased with the general performance
and how we are creating plenty of chances, this positivity pisses me off because it seems he's exagerating how good we were, however when I look at XG
Hecky DOES have a good point, XG stats show that virtually every match this season we created more and better goal scoring chances than the opposition.

Here is last nights post match comments from Hecky
"We missed our chances. We weren't at our best but if you look at the stats and our chances, we'll have had more than enough to win it. If we're at our best we usually win, and someone's going to have to be extra special to beat us. Boro might say they've played great, but we know what went against us today, which was us not taking our chances.I've got no complaints, you get what you deserve, we didn't take our chances and that's why we got beaten today."

When I saw that I immediately thought, it's just excuses because Boro seem to have the best chances and were clearly the better team.

However when you look at XG stats.
The FACTS show we had more chances and better chances than Boro.
So we're obviously on the right track, another day, we win that game game.
So let's not over react about how good Boro were and how bad we were, we are still massive favourites for the autos.

 

[vas borbokis]

I posted this elsewhere on another thread last night. It's all I can cling on to tbh.
Take our early chances and they wouldn't have come back into the game.
What would we be like with their strickers in our team though?
Clinical, robust, strong, fast, fit & athletic. Not how I'd describe McB, N'Diaye, & Jebbo.
I'm still hoping we've got enough to see the season out, but don't we make flipping hard work of it?
Boardroom clusterfuck implosion bordering on self-harm just can't be helping the team and manager to focus and hold it all together.

 

[ekke287]

When it clicks, it really clicks.

When it doesn’t, we look all huff and no puff.

 

[robbiez666]

We had twice as many shots on target but I don't think our chances were that much better, the Ndiaye one aside. Boro blazed over while we hit limp shots.

 

[Ned the Donkey]

Up to a point this is the game I saw and it fits the pattern of how we often play: the opposition have a fair amount of apparently threatening possession but we create much the better chances.

I can't bring myself to watch the highlights but at the time I was surprised seemingly all their shots went in (barring Anel's miracle tackle).

Iliman had two very good chances, there were others.

Whisper it, but it's not a million miles from our wonder performance against Villa when we won 4-1. We played very well that day and scored some great goals that day, but it also helped that everything went our way.

They played very well, and even if we had gone 2-0 up with their energy, commitment, skill and set up they would have still been very much in the game.

Keep the faith.

 

[Sheffsteel]

We had twice as many shots on target but I don't think our chances were that much better, the Ndiaye one aside. Boro blazed over while we hit limp shots.

That's you opinion, which can obviously vary.
My opinion is probably similar to yours, in that Boro were by far the better team and seem to have the better chances too.

However Infogol are neutral, they don't care about United or Boro
All that site does is provide accurate date regards the number and quality of chances.
The FACTS show based on chances we were significantly better than Boro.

We should have been 3-0 up after 20 minutes before Boro even got going.

 

[Ned the Donkey]

I posted this elsewhere on another thread last night. It's all I can cling on to tbh.
Take our early chances and they wouldn't have come back into the game.

To be fair to them I think they might have come back into it. They had a plan and a belief in that plan. It came with risks. The first 10 minutes was like the last 20 minutes of a cup game. Risks being taken all over the pitch.

 

[Bladesman]

That's you opinion, which can obviously vary.
My opinion is probably similar to yours, in that Boro were by far the better team and seem to have the better chances too.

However Infogol are neutral, they don't care about United or Boro
All that site does is provide accurate date regards the number and quality of chances.
The FACTS show based on chances we were significantly better than Boro.

We should have been 3-0 up after 20 minutes before Boro even got going.

We need to put teams to the sword sooner.

 

[Selly]

We need to put teams to the sword sooner.

Quite - if Ndiaye scores that one after 10 mins to put us 2-0 up we certainly (IMO) don`t lose by two goals

 

[robbiez666]

That's you opinion, which can obviously vary.
My opinion is probably similar to yours, in that Boro were by far the better team and seem to have the better chances too.

However Infogol are neutral, they don't care about United or Boro
All that site does is provide accurate date regards the number and quality of chances.
The FACTS show based on chances we were significantly better than Boro.

We should have been 3-0 up after 20 minutes before Boro even got going.

You seem to have confused facts with stats. What Infogol produce are stats, not facts.

 

[Sheffsteel]

To be fair to them I think they might have come back into it. They had a plan and a belief in that plan. It came with risks. The first 10 minutes was like the last 20 minutes of a cup game. Risks being taken all over the pitch.

I saw the Boro game when they played away at Sunderland.
Boro's tactics were to keep it tight and gradually feel their way into the game.
However Sunderland's tactic were to keep it tight and feel their way into the game.
So it was a 0-0 bore draw at half-time with neither side creating many chances.

Sunderland stepped it up slightly in the 2nd half, scored to go 1-0 in front
but because Boro had started slowly they struggled to react and up their tempo.

Looks like Carrick learnt from that match.
He thought....let's turn it into a basketball match....allow Sheff Utd to attack and create chance but we can get them on the break.
It was a risk but I suppose they knew a draw wouldn't be enough, so they made it a very open game.

 

[Houston_Blade]

We had twice as many shots on target but I don't think our chances were that much better, the Ndiaye one aside. Boro blazed over while we hit limp shots.

Ndiaye chance at 1-0
Jebbo free header
Jebbo shot saved at 3-1
Ndiaye miss at 2-1

They were all decent enough chances.

Did Egan have a free header as well?

Bogle's dribble with no shot wouldn't have got xG, McAtee's 1 on 1 was probably low xG in the end because he didn't cut across the defender and was forced wider.

We had some opportunities.

I don't want to sound like Wilder but 'fine margins' and all that.

 

[robbiez666]

Ndiaye chance at 1-0
Jebbo free header
Jebbo shot saved at 3-1
Ndiaye miss at 2-1

They were all decent enough chances.

Did Egan have a free header as well?

Bogle's dribble with no shot wouldn't have got xG, McAtee's 1 on 1 was probably low xG in the end because he didn't cut across the defender and was forced wider.

We had some opportunities.

I don't want to sound like Wilder but 'fine margins' and all that.

I think we were probably equal on big opportunities but they were much better in overall play. We could easily have got a couple more and them one less but it would have been a very unfair result!

 

[Houston_Blade]

I think we were probably equal on big opportunities but they were much better in overall play. We could easily have got a couple more and them one less but it would have been a very unfair result!

Yep, we were shit but still created chances, that's the positive I'm taking out of it.

 

[Sheffsteel]

You seem to have confused facts with stats. What Infogol produce are stats, not facts.

Yeh fair enough.....and stats can be manipulated to help support whatever viewpoint you have.

Hecky regularly talks about how he's pleased with the performance because we create more chances than the opposition, which is fairness is true.
However my concern is how we are regularly annihilated in midfield. Sometimes it feels like in spells we don't have a midfield.

In fact we seem to give up on and by pass midfield with the tactic of giving the ball to Norwood and he's always trying the long pass.

Last night when Boro were growing in confidence building up a head of steam
I was wondering "why don't we just take the wind out of their sail playing a Swansea style for 5 minutes of just keeping possession"

This season we give up possession so easily and cheaply.
In the Championship against most teams that's fine but in the PL if you keep giving up possession then you're inviting trouble.

 

[Bladesman]

Ndiaye chance at 1-0
Jebbo free header
Jebbo shot saved at 3-1
Ndiaye miss at 2-1

They were all decent enough chances.

Did Egan have a free header as well?

Bogle's dribble with no shot wouldn't have got xG, McAtee's 1 on 1 was probably low xG in the end because he didn't cut across the defender and was forced wider.

We had some opportunities.

I don't want to sound like Wilder but 'fine margins' and all that.

Don't forget about the "Bits and pieces"

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Yes if we took our chances we'd have blown them out the water in the first ten

 

[cooperblade]

Seen a few different xG models and they all have us in front last night.

I thought we created a lot and got in some excellent areas. The first 10 minutes were probably our best 10 of the season and we should have been more than 1 in front. However, our decision making was often poor and our most skilful attacking players (McAtee, Ndiaye and Bogle) weren't at their best.

We also conceded one goal which was unlucky and another which was down to poor refereeing.

I also thought Boro's 4-2-3-1 meant that Norwood's area of the pitch was crowded and he struggled a bit against Akpom's physicality.

Overall though, nothing particularly worrying about our performance. Boro were very good, have an incredible run of fixtures coming up and I think it's likely we'll need to earn promotion rather than have it handed to us by them not getting a good haul of points.

I understand why the club has done it but I think the decision to allow the women's team to play at Bramall Lane was a really poor one. We're a team who look to move it quickly and to dribble and the deterioration of the playing surface this year isn't helping us.

 

[Selly]

Overall though, nothing particularly worrying about our performance. Boro were very good, have an incredible run of fixtures coming up and I think it's likely we'll need to earn promotion rather than have it handed to us by them not getting a good haul of points.

Agree with this - I had thought that 85 points would probably be enough - given how good Boro looked last night I think we might have to get to 90.

 

[Bergen Blade]

I've mentioned elsewhere I felt uncomfortable most of the game, so I was surprised at the stats.

But xG models have weaknesses. They often do not take into account much more than where a finish was made from.

Other things that should be included for a fuller analysis:

• Time to shoot, or hurried?
• Running onto the ball, or shoting from standstill?
• Strongest or weakest foot?
• Defenders in the way?
• Etc

What I think Middlesbrough achieved against us is that they found space. As we struggled to keep up I felt they got into better shooting situations than the xG stats (shooting positions) have given them credit for. For many of their chances their finishers were running onto the ball, they often had time to get their balance right and our defenders struggled to get their full frame between the finish and the goal - often it was a desperate tackle or defenders throwing themselves at the shooter.

When we finished from open play there was usually bodies to get through as we shot. Nidaye twice were exceptions, but his finishes were still hurried and poor. We scored and created some decent chances from set pieces.

A look at some of the Middlesbrough chances. Note how many times we are struggling to get close enough to make blocks. We'r relying on desperate launches. Also notice how many times our defenders are facing our own goal in these attacks, meaning Middlesbrough have succeded in turning us.














Only the last one is from a set piece. In general they didn't threat much from set pieces.

These are all from the extended highlights. There were more uncomfortable situations, and some long range efforts, that are not included here. I don't have time to do our chances now, but most weren't as clear.

Let's not panic, but let's not kid ourselves either. Hecky and the staff need to look very closely at what went wrong in this match. Computer generated stats always need to be coupled with a real look at how the key situations were.

 

[Champagneblade]

Quite - if Ndiaye scores that one after 10 mins to put us 2-0 up we certainly (IMO) don`t lose by two goals

Boro had a lot of luck go their way too.

No two ways about it. Struggling to get the ball through our defence and then Norwood wins a tackle only for it to go straight to their man who is in the clear.

Third has been well documented. It’s no advantage to get the ball to a man surrounded by 3 players who loses it within 4 seconds. Ref should have acknowledged advantage wasn’t gained and pulled it back.

 

[Trafford]

We had some great chances, what we lacked was someone with speed and an eye for goal to convert them. It’s something that we have struggled with all season - we have had to rely on goals from non-strikers too many times, which is why Ndiaye’s recent poor spell in front of goal has been so noticeable.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Boro had a lot of luck go their way too.

No two ways about it. Struggling to get the ball through our defence and then Norwood wins a tackle only for it to go straight to their man who is in the clear.

Third has been well documented. It’s no advantage to get the ball to a man surrounded by 3 players who loses it within 4 seconds. Ref should have acknowledged advantage wasn’t gained and pulled it back.

I’ve not watched their goals back but on the 2nd goal it seemed that we had a lot of chances to tackle and clear the danger before Norwoods desperate lunge/assist.

 

[nopigfansintown]

United had at least half a dozen.great chances to score. 3 x Ndiaye, 1x Egan, 1x Mcattee, 1x Mcburnie/Anel .

We had a similar amount of good opportunities: 1x Bogle, 1x Berge (passed it), 2x Jebbo, 1 x Mcburnie, 1 x Anel. If anything XG underrated our chances. Ndiaye should've had a hatrick and Egan has to score from there. With the exception of the Archer finish Boros chances were all substantially more difficult. The header was quite difficult and wasn't really a threat until it hit Bogle's arm redirecting it. That was their other noteworthy noment.

 

[nopigfansintown]

I’ve not watched their goals back but on the 2nd goal it seemed that we had a lot of chances to tackle and clear the danger before Norwoods desperate lunge/assist.

It was extremely poor defending.The finish was difficult and well taken.

 

[Sheffsteel]

I've mentioned elsewhere I felt uncomfortable most of the game, so I was surprised at the stats.

But xG models have weaknesses. They often do not take into account much more than where a finish was made from.

Other things that should be included for a fuller analysis:

• Time to shoot, or hurried?
• Running onto the ball, or shoting from standstill?
• Strongest or weakest foot?
• Defenders in the way?
• Etc

What I think Middlesbrough achieved against us is that they found space. As we struggled to keep up I felt they got into better shooting situations than the xG stats (shooting positions) have given them credit for. For many of their chances their finishers were running onto the ball, they often had time to get their balance right and our defenders struggled to get their full frame between the finish and the goal - often it was a desperate tackle or defenders throwing themselves at the shooter.

When we finished from open play there was usually bodies to get through as we shot. Nidaye twice were exceptions, but his finishes were still hurried and poor. We scored and created some decent chances from set pieces.

A look at some of the Middlesbrough chances. Note how many times we are struggling to get close enough to make blocks. We'r relying on desperate launches. Also notice how many times our defenders are facing our own goal in these attacks, meaning Middlesbrough have succeded in turning us.

View attachment 154193
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Only the last one is from a set piece. In general they didn't threat much from set pieces.

These are all from the extended highlights. There were more uncomfortable situations, and some long range efforts, that are not included here. I don't have time to do our chances now, but most weren't as clear.

Let's not panic, but let's not kid ourselves either. Hecky and the staff need to look very closely at what went wrong in this match. Computer generated stats always need to be coupled with a real look at how the key situations were.

Excellent post....(as unsual).

I'm sometimes find myself dissappointed when listening to Hecky's post match interviews.
He tends to exaggerate how good we were, he often seems satisfied and tends to highlight our better XG stats.
Accept that we do tend to create better and more chances than the opposition, almost every match but we have spells in most games where the midfield
look so disjointed like they've just met up and we struggle to keep string 3 or 4 consecutive passes together.

When Wilder was manager, even when we won or played well, he was still critical regards some areas where we can improve.
Wilder's team were also very comfortable in possession and we looked so well drilled as though everyone had received in depth coaching.

Where as our sole tactic under Hecky seems to be "pass it Norwood" and then he'll play a long ball to someone up front or on the wing.
My concern for the long term is that there's no interplay or system in the midfield as though we deliberately bypass it.
We also give away possession very cheaply and freely, which I think could be a problem when you're playing better teams win the Premier League.

Chance wise it was a fairly even game, so we were probably a little unlucky however there were times in the 2nd half
where Boro were starting to outclass class and it was concerning to see, especially on our own patch.

 

[Bergen Blade]

Had a look at our chances from open play vs Middlesbrough.

The difference, compared to their chances, were that there were more often defenders to beat, defenders in the way, in addition to the goalkeeper. Even though we got shots through, having defenders with their full frames blocking some of the goal can be a great help to the goalkeeper.



Ndiaye ran through and wanted to get the ball onto his right foot, but couldn't quite get the angle right. The touch before his finish took him too close to the gk.


Good effort from McBurnie, but it was from standstill and outside the box. Defenders in the way.


Another Ndiaye effort, but it is with his left and his effort is tame. A real chance though.


Bogle shoots, but defenders are in the way and it's straight at the goalkeeper.


Jebbo shoots on the turn, but there are two bodies to get through and he can only hit it straight at the gk.


Jebbo shoots again, but the effort is blocked by the first defender.


Jebbo does well to get this one through a lot of bodies and forces a decent save.


Jebbo's header goes over.



Note, I've mainly looked at the open play situations to show that I think Middlesbrough managed to create better chances in this match.

As I've said I'm not sure how advanced these xG stats are, though I see Fotmob's stats also give a higher xG to them from open play.

 

[BrayfordsBushyBeard]

Load of bollocks all these new facts ! Score more than the opposition- win ! No more facts needed !!
As ever UTB !