Revolution
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So, halfway through the season and we've accumulated 44 points: an impressive total.
The big question, of course, is whether we will keep up that form - which should see us promoted if we do - or whether there will be a drop off in the 2nd half of the season.
I was interested to see how we'd done historically in terms of collecting points in the first half and second half of a season, so I checked. Here's a table showing how we've done this century. All seasons were 46 games long save for the PL seasons, which were of course 38 games. The final column shows the percentage split between first half and second half points:
Funny, if you add up the columns, we have gained 777 points in the first half of the 23 full seasons listed...and 779 in the second half of those seasons. So on average, there is virtually no difference between the team's performance in the first and second halves of seasons. But there is a fair amount of variance season by season.
The seasons where we gained the largest percentage of points in the second half are:
2020-21 - 78% gained in second half. Not difficult to do when you have the worst start in league history.
2013-14 - 63% gained in second half. David Weir was an awful manager, wasn't he?
2021-22 - 57% gained in second half. Heckingbottom reverts to 3-5-2 and does a terrific job
2018-19 - 57% gained in second half. A phenomenal performance from Wilder and the team, taking 51 points (second only to his excellent tally of 53 2 seasons earlier) to chase down and pass Leeds.
The seasons where we gained the largest percentage of points in the first half are:
2010-11 - 60% gained in first half. Mickey Adams doing a job that was clearly beyond him with a squad stripped of quality that had more than its fair share of arseholes in it
2003-04 - 58% gained in first half. This is what you get for selling Michael Brown and replacing him with Monty
2005-6 - 58% gained in first half. Warnock trying to fix what wasn't broken with a number of poor signings, but we had a big lead (52 first half points is the most by some distance) and he came to his senses in time
2017-18 - 58% gained in first half. Great start but the Coutts injury, Brooks illness, a really poor transfer window and a bit of Wilder stubbornness saw us drop down the table.
I thought that there would be nothing to learn from this exercise - after all, how we did 10 years ago is no guide to how we would do now - but I was wrong. Neil Warnock managed us in 7 full seasons and the team was worse - and sometimes appreciably worse - in the second half of six of them. Overall, Warnock teams accumulated 34 more points in the first halves of those seasons than they did in the second halves. Is this a fluke, or is there something in what Warnock is doing that causes this? There was usually - though not always - a slump in January or February, I recall. Makes me wonder whether this pattern is repeated at his other clubs. Perhaps the clubs that sacked him halfway knew what they were doing.
Wilder is the other manager with significant time in the role during this period, but there's no pattern to his teams' performance. Two big improvements second half, one big drop off, and one smaller drop off (which was a portent of things to come, unfortunately).
The most evenly matched first and second halves are two seasons that were not enjoyable: 2009-10 with Blackwell in charge, and 2014-15 with Clough in charge (to be fair, the cup exploits were enjoyable in the latter season). In each case there was only one point difference between the two halves.
So far, Heckingbottom has overseen second half improvements. If he does the same this year, we are going up.
The big question, of course, is whether we will keep up that form - which should see us promoted if we do - or whether there will be a drop off in the 2nd half of the season.
I was interested to see how we'd done historically in terms of collecting points in the first half and second half of a season, so I checked. Here's a table showing how we've done this century. All seasons were 46 games long save for the PL seasons, which were of course 38 games. The final column shows the percentage split between first half and second half points:
| Season | Manager | Total Points | 1st half points | 2nd half points | % split |
| 1999-2000 | Heath/Warnock | 54 | 24 | 30 | 44/56 |
| 2000-01 | Warnock | 68 | 36 | 32 | 53/47 |
| 2001-02 | Warnock | 60 | 27 | 33 | 45/55 |
| 2002-03 | Warnock | 80 | 42 | 38 | 53/47 |
| 2003-04 | Warnock | 71 | 41 | 30 | 58/42 |
| 2004-05 | Warnock | 67 | 36 | 31 | 54/46 |
| 2005-06 | Warnock | 90 | 52 | 38 | 58/42 |
| 2006-07 | Warnock | 38 | 20 | 18 | 53/47 |
| 2007-08 | Robson/Blackwell | 66 | 30 | 36 | 45/55 |
| 2008-09 | Blackwell | 80 | 36 | 44 | 45/55 |
| 2009-10 | Blackwell | 65 | 32 | 33 | 49/51 |
| 2010-11 | Blackwell/Speed/Adams | 42 | 25 | 17 | 60/40 |
| 2011-12 | Wilson | 90 | 47 | 43 | 52/48 |
| 2012-13 | Wilson/Morgan | 75 | 43 | 32 | 57/43 |
| 2013-14 | Weir/Clough | 67 | 25 | 42 | 37/63 |
| 2014-15 | Clough | 71 | 36 | 35 | 51/49 |
| 2015-16 | Adkins | 66 | 36 | 30 | 55/45 |
| 2016-17 | Wilder | 100 | 47 | 53 | 47/53 |
| 2017-18 | Wilder | 65 | 38 | 27 | 58/42 |
| 2018-19 | Wilder | 89 | 38 | 51 | 43/57 |
| 2019-20 | Wilder | 54 | 29 | 25 | 54/46 |
| 2020-21 | Wilder/Heckingbottom | 23 | 5 | 18 | 22/78 |
| 2021-22 | Jokanovic/Heckingbottom | 75 | 32 | 43 | 43/57 |
| 2022-23 | Heckingbottom | 44 |
Funny, if you add up the columns, we have gained 777 points in the first half of the 23 full seasons listed...and 779 in the second half of those seasons. So on average, there is virtually no difference between the team's performance in the first and second halves of seasons. But there is a fair amount of variance season by season.
The seasons where we gained the largest percentage of points in the second half are:
2020-21 - 78% gained in second half. Not difficult to do when you have the worst start in league history.
2013-14 - 63% gained in second half. David Weir was an awful manager, wasn't he?
2021-22 - 57% gained in second half. Heckingbottom reverts to 3-5-2 and does a terrific job
2018-19 - 57% gained in second half. A phenomenal performance from Wilder and the team, taking 51 points (second only to his excellent tally of 53 2 seasons earlier) to chase down and pass Leeds.
The seasons where we gained the largest percentage of points in the first half are:
2010-11 - 60% gained in first half. Mickey Adams doing a job that was clearly beyond him with a squad stripped of quality that had more than its fair share of arseholes in it
2003-04 - 58% gained in first half. This is what you get for selling Michael Brown and replacing him with Monty
2005-6 - 58% gained in first half. Warnock trying to fix what wasn't broken with a number of poor signings, but we had a big lead (52 first half points is the most by some distance) and he came to his senses in time
2017-18 - 58% gained in first half. Great start but the Coutts injury, Brooks illness, a really poor transfer window and a bit of Wilder stubbornness saw us drop down the table.
I thought that there would be nothing to learn from this exercise - after all, how we did 10 years ago is no guide to how we would do now - but I was wrong. Neil Warnock managed us in 7 full seasons and the team was worse - and sometimes appreciably worse - in the second half of six of them. Overall, Warnock teams accumulated 34 more points in the first halves of those seasons than they did in the second halves. Is this a fluke, or is there something in what Warnock is doing that causes this? There was usually - though not always - a slump in January or February, I recall. Makes me wonder whether this pattern is repeated at his other clubs. Perhaps the clubs that sacked him halfway knew what they were doing.
Wilder is the other manager with significant time in the role during this period, but there's no pattern to his teams' performance. Two big improvements second half, one big drop off, and one smaller drop off (which was a portent of things to come, unfortunately).
The most evenly matched first and second halves are two seasons that were not enjoyable: 2009-10 with Blackwell in charge, and 2014-15 with Clough in charge (to be fair, the cup exploits were enjoyable in the latter season). In each case there was only one point difference between the two halves.
So far, Heckingbottom has overseen second half improvements. If he does the same this year, we are going up.
