An Objective view on the promotion race

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blader

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Right, so the season is beginning to come to its conclusion and it is very hard to get a grasp of our chances and the chances of the chasing pack, just thought I'd take a few lines to take an objective view on the situation:

1. Charlton - The best team, without doubt. They are professional, have no particular superstars but Chris Powell has got them working terrifically together. I don't think anyone who has watched Charlton this season will begrudge them of the title. They play good football, keep it on the floor, and as an extra positive for Charlton fans, they have a young side as well. Charlton may well have a bright future after this season. Decent crowd sizes (certainly for League 1) and are a good benchmark for other teams in this division.

2. Blades - According to the form book since christmas, we are the most consistent team, which has seen us rocket up into the auto spots, with a small cushion as well. Also famed for playing a good style of football, the Blades have passed their way into 2nd place. However, unlike Charlton, Sheff Utd seem to 'rely' on certain players more than others. I'm not saying that we are 'carrying' any players (as that would not be an objective view), but it's true that we have individuals that are capable of winning games alone, and others that cannot. The Blades remaining fixtures should yield optimism with only 1 of the current top 5 left to play.Taking away my heart, Sheffield United do look the comfortable favourites for automatic promotion, but then emotions and experience show that this may not be the case!

3. Sheffield Wednesday - Looked almost dead and buried before Sunday. I think defeat for them would have ended any hope they had of reaching 2nd spot, but they won, which puts a whole new context into the promotion race. Wednesday are a classic Gary Megson team, (I won't go into too much depth, everyone knows how they play etc), but they are certainly effective. Despite a poor run of form, they are certainly contenders for the 2nd spot and the derby win may just step them up a gear. Considering their (comparatively) dismal away record, it is fortunate that the majority of their remaining games are at home. A vital game against Huddersfield is still to come, other than that, they have played all of the other top sides twice.

4. Huddersfield Town - A very peculiar one. To look at 'objectively' may not tell the whole story for them. Early season pace-setters and, with the form of Jordan Rhodes, looked very well set for promotion. Yet since the loss of their impressive unbeaten record, Huddersfield have wavered slightly, which has seen them drop many needless points and slip to 4th place. Alongside this, the very strange sacking of their manager and replaced by a similar manager (who's also a Leeds fan, massive negative for them) has caused some real confusion at their club. Last night's result is another example of why they seem to be throwing it away. We have seen a huge decline from the team we saw at Bramall Lane to the team we beat at the Galpharm, would probably see them as my outsiders of the 4 teams now.

5. MK Dons - What have they done wrong? Everyone ALWAYS seems to discount them form the automatic race, yet I possibly see them as our largest threat. Similar to us, their record against the top 6 is very poor, but are efficient at beating the teams below them. MK Dons play a relatively good brand of football, and if they do sign Bentley from Tottenham (as rumours suggest) they could be a real handful in the run in. I actually don't think they will catch us, but it is very unfair for people to completely discount them, as they are only 4 points behind us and are there on merit.


To conclude:

Head over heart - Sheffield United are clear favourites for the second spot. With our remaining fixtures and our ability to grind out results, we should be good enough to get over the line considering our current league standing.

Heart over Head - It definitely isn't over until it's over with the blades. we could easily throw this away, as we have seen before, and there are 3 teams poised to take our place if we cock it right up. Let's just hope, for once, we can see a job through!!!

UTB
 



If we lost tonight i don't think we'd be clear favourites for anything! Might be worth revisiting this tomorrow.
 
A win tonight will set us back on track and if we can follow it up with another 3 points on Saturday we should be in a great position come 4.55. There's no reason to believe that we can't continue our points / game ratio that we've had all season which would see us up although getting Macca back sooner rather than later is a must. It's beginning to look very similar to 2006 with Charlton replacing Reading but I am far more confident with DW in charge than I would have been with Warnock or Blackwell at this stage.
 
I'd also point out that Charlton are very, very good at getting in front and shutting up shop. Defensively they are excellent but you could argue that they've relied on the left boot of Johnnie Jackson against the top sides in the division.

It'll be interesting to see how they cope next season against the better sides; they've only come from behind to win twice out of 10 games where they've conceded first.

On a similar note, in all seven of our league defeats this season, we've conceded first: we've only won three and drawn two of the twelve in total. Some mental scars from last season there?
 
I agree with you about MK Dons, I have an uneasy feeling about them.

They've just won three in a row, which suggests they're bang on form and they look to have the easiest run in.

They're not even a proper club, surely natural justice says we have to prevail against a team like that?
 
Speaking of the 06 run-in, I've just found my spreadsheet covering the remaining games in the season. A few tweaks later and;

Based on season form

Charlton 104
Blades 92
Udders 84
MK 83
Pigs 83

Based on current form (predicting remaining games based on form from the last 6);

Charlton 101
Blades 92
MK 83
Udders 80
Pigs 75
 
MK Dons are without doubt the dark horses. The press ignore them more than they do us.
With only 6 away games left inc at Rochdale, Wycome, Scunny, Chezzie, they must have a right chance of automatic.
I think it will be a decider when we go there.
 
Its going to be exciting for a neutral but not for us blades, tonight could potentially our biggest game of the season a win puts us 5 clear of 3rd with a game in hand. A defeat puts us in the pack we may just need a cushion going into the last 4 games. The fact we play MK near the end of the season could go for or against us so i won't go into that. I do think our home games look very easy so that could be crucial. The fact we have so many games in March will show us if we have enough, we certainly have enough fire power but giving them 6 or 8 minutes will not do there confidence any good so that is a worry. I would stick Hoskins or BT in tonight to give them a game because we will need to score lots of goals and suspensions and injuries are very likely to come soon.
 
Interesting post by Blader and good responses.
As Trigger says about the uneasy feeling re MK Dons,I just have an uneasy feeling about our ability to clinch that second spot, which I should not have under Danny Wilson, but we have come to rely on MacDonald now to open up teams and create chances for Evans and co.
Most teams starting with the Iron will come to the lane and fill up their defences.
On paper we have the players capable of promotion, if we keep injury free but football is not that simple.
Quinn is not consistant and can fade out of games, Monty and Doyle are not a partnership,and without MCD I just think we are lacking in the mid field area.
Would like to see Hoskins start a game and along with Evans Beattie and Cresswell we are ok up front.
Defensive providing no injuries we are ok but midfield causes concern.
Perhaps I should just rest in the "Wilson wonderland",but I have been around the club for many years, I still have this uncertainity.
UTB
 
MK Dons are without doubt the dark horses. The press ignore them more than they do us.
With only 6 away games left inc at Rochdale, Wycome, Scunny, Chezzie, they must have a right chance of automatic.
I think it will be a decider when we go there.

4 of the bottom 5? I can think of easier places to go that a fighting against relegation club in March and April. And bear in maind thats

Wycombe - where we lost
Scunny - where we drew
Chezzie - where we scraoped a 1-0 win

No easy games at this stage
 
Excellent stuff Blader.

Totally agree we are favourites now, but as you very rightly say, we seem more reliant on two players (one of whom is injured and the other who could get locked up) than perhaps other sides are.
 
This thread is daft. How can anyone write an "objective" piece about something they are clearly involved with and have strong opinions about?!
 
Come Saturday night things will be a lot clearer. By then, on paper we have 6 points for the taking and, realistically, if we are to go up we probably need all 6.
However, Scunthorpe are not a side I would like to put my house on us beating (finished Robson off, all but knackered Hoofys last chance of a play-off spot, demoralised Speed into negativity for the rest of his reign in their last three visits) so it'll be interesting to see where we are after the next two.

I still think Huddersfield are the team most likely should we fail.
 
This thread is daft. How can anyone write an "objective" piece about something they are clearly involved with and have strong opinions about?!

Damn! Beat me to it.

No doubt Dazzler will have his say on this but whilst 'objective' means uninfluenced, as long as the comments are based on facts or aren't overly prejudiced then I don't see why the comments on the thread are daft.
 



>tonight could potentially our biggest game of the season
agree totally.. if we can beat a bogey team like scunny then it's all good and sunday was a temporary blip
 
No doubt Dazzler will have his say on this but whilst 'objective' means uninfluenced, as long as the comments are based on facts or aren't overly prejudiced then I don't see why the comments on the thread are daft.

Agreed, of course you can have an objective view on something you have an involvement with. You just have to seperate your subjective wishes from objective evidence. With 2 games to go last season, I subjectively wanted us to stay up and hoped we would. Objectively I knew it was very likely we would go down.
 
You just have to seperate your subjective wishes from objective evidence.

Is subjectivity about "wishes" though? He says himself that he knows from experience that United always fuck it up, even though we look like favourites on paper. Nobody here is wishing for us to make a mess of it. I'm sure to most outside the club, we look nailed on for promotion, but to most of us fans, we're concerned that we'll bottle it. This is biased by Blades connections and has nothing to do with "wishes" for sure.

Can't it be argued that the number of times we have messed it up is "objective evidence", anyway?
 
Is subjectivity about "wishes" though? He says himself that he knows from experience that United always fuck it up, even though we look like favourites on paper. Nobody here is wishing for us to make a mess of it. I'm sure to most outside the club, we look nailed on for promotion, but to most of us fans, we're concerned that we'll bottle it. This is biased by Blades connections and has nothing to do with "wishes" for sure.

Can't it be argued that the number of times we have messed it up is "objective evidence", anyway?

As a general philosophical point it is never possible to be entirely objective. All the decisions and judgments we make are influenced by what we value and the experiences we have had. However, it is possible to divorce oneself from the more obvious subjectivies and come to a fairly unbiased judgment. So taking, the issue of whether United will get promotion, one can look at the table and other objuective evidence and say that it is objectively more likely than not that United will get promoted.

I would not say that past experiences with football club is objective evidence because the players playing for us and the opponents we are playing against are completely different. Thus, the fact that we messed up in 1994, 1997, 2003, 2007 and 2009 has no relevance - just as the fact that we didn't mess up in 1971, 1982, 1984, 1989, 1990 and 2006 has no relevance.
 
Charlton have struggled without Jackson and dropped points.
Without him they would not have beaten Blades or Wendy recently.
It's not just us that have one or two crucial players.

Pigs since Marshall left
Imagine Hudders without Rhodes.
MKD started to struggle more when Baldock went to Spam.

Most teams in the thrid division dont have a great strength in depth and we are no exception despite the large wage bill
 
>tonight could potentially our biggest game of the season
agree totally.. if we can beat a bogey team like scunny then it's all good and sunday was a temporary blip

biggest game of the season? thats madness. how can a home tie against someone in the relegation zone be ur biggest game.

our biggest game so far, except for the derbies, was Udders away where the top 6 played each other. we came away with 3 points that no one gave us a chance of getting and Wednesday got beat.

that my friends was the turning point. i know we're one down right now, but we're going up. just u wait and see.
 
biggest game of the season? thats madness. how can a home tie against someone in the relegation zone be ur biggest game.

Because it's our game in hand. It's like in tennis - breaking someone's serve is useless if you don't hold on the next game. The easier bit is arguably more important than the harder bit.
 
biggest game of the season? thats madness. how can a home tie against someone in the relegation zone be ur biggest game.

our biggest game so far, except for the derbies, was Udders away where the top 6 played each other. we came away with 3 points that no one gave us a chance of getting and Wednesday got beat.

that my friends was the turning point. i know we're one down right now, but we're going up. just u wait and see.

Et voila!

UTB
 
Its not over yet, we looked edgey tonight, and probably didn't deserve to win the game, although a point would have been deserved, but then again you need abit of luck to get out of a division and maybe tonight was out luck?

I want to believe its ours, and it is ours for the taking, but its certainly not over yet, looking at the bigger picture, we'll need at LEAST 11 wins out of 13 if teams around us keep winning. A couple of losses would change things totally.
 
Its not over yet, we looked edgey tonight, and probably didn't deserve to win the game, although a point would have been deserved, but then again you need abit of luck to get out of a division and maybe tonight was out luck?

I want to believe its ours, and it is ours for the taking, but its certainly not over yet, looking at the bigger picture, we'll need at LEAST 11 wins out of 13 if teams around us keep winning. A couple of losses would change things totally.

As Revolution says elsewhere, given the form of the other teams, 8 wins will probably do it. That would put us on 89 points. To overhaul that SWFC would need to win 10 of their remaining 13, Huddersfield win 10 and draw 1 of their remaining 14 or MKD win 10 and draw 2 of their remaining 14. All highly unlikely.
 
Updated;

Based on season form

Charlton 104
Blades 93
Udders 84
MK 83
Pigs 83

Based on current form (predicting remaining games based on form from the last 6);

Charlton 101
Blades 93
MK 83
Udders 80
Pigs 75
 

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