Updated Graphs - Feb 10

[ucandomagic]

The usual set of graphs: - When Hecky took over, I put together some possible results for each game which were the minimum to give us a chance of the playoffs (71 points) and almost certain playoff achievement (78 points). I was asked a week later to add a set of results that would see us almost certainly achieving automatic promotion (90 points).

Graph 1 includes our results after the West Brom win, compared to those 3 sets of forecasts. I make no comment - as Graph 1 speaks for itself (a picture tells 1,000 words). All I will say is that as long as we stay close to the autos line the playoffs become more and more likely - managing expectations avoids huge disappointment!

Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 28 games we had 46 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 50 in 18/19, so we are currently just a point behind where we were in 17/18, when we tailed off to 10th, and only 5 points behind Wilder's promotion season in 18/19, our second place season.

Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, on 45 points after 28 games, we are now just 2 points behind 08/09 (3rd) and 4 points ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 28 games.

"To Infinity and Beyond!"
With Apologies to Buzz Lightyear!

Graph 1




Graph 2




Graph 3

 

[Houston_Blade]

Autos then?!

 

[corner_flag]

Wow, it is in our hands! This division is so flat at the moment it could be any of the top 10 go up, just needs a consistent run. Even 2nd is up for grabs

 

[mattbianco1]

Definitely in our hands considering 1) the games in hand, and 2) the teams we have to face at home

 

[Oohaah! Bob Bookah!]

Stop this now, we are Blades! we do not get optimistic.

 

[SwindonBladeJnr]

We likely need 10 wins from 18 now to be sure of the play-offs (8-9 might even do it), which feels very achievable with how we're playing under Hecky. At the point he took over, reaching 75 points or more looked really daunting.

Including the Reading game that is now 8 league wins in 10 - no matter who you are, that's excellent form in a league which is notoriously difficult. Great to feel optimistic about this Blades team again and really looking forward to the rest of the season.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

It's a tall order to keep up this trajectory of form for the automatics.

I think the more realistic scenario is that results will begin to tail off soon due to fixture volume and subsequent squad pressures (injuries already beginning to mount).
Play-offs look a strong possibility now though, where I expect we will be in with Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest and one of QPR / WBA / Blackburn. It's then a total lottery.

 

[Kozzy_is_my_Dad]

 

[TCsLoveChild]

Looking a lot like a play-off final against Wilders Boro. Think I might need to book a holiday to avoid that UTB

 

[Klaatu Barada Nikto]

Looking a lot like a play-off final against Wilders Boro. Think I might need to book a holiday to avoid that UTB

It's more likely that we'll get them in the semi final

 

[Trigger Blade]

I like Graph 1 best, we’re currently ahead of the Autos Certain line…..

 

[BladesOnToast]

On points-per-game we're already in the playoffs, in 5th (us and Middlesbrough nudging Hudders and Florist out of the top 6). No surprises that we have by far the best relative form in the division, and encouraging to highlight that Bournemouth and Blackburn are on a poor run of form...

 

[brownblade]

The usual set of graphs: - When Hecky took over, I put together some possible results for each game which were the minimum to give us a chance of the playoffs (71 points) and almost certain playoff achievement (78 points). I was asked a week later to add a set of results that would see us almost certainly achieving automatic promotion (90 points).

Graph 1 includes our results after the West Brom win, compared to those 3 sets of forecasts. I make no comment - as Graph 1 speaks for itself (a picture tells 1,000 words). All I will say is that as long as we stay close to the autos line the playoffs become more and more likely - managing expectations avoids huge disappointment!

Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 28 games we had 46 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 50 in 18/19, so we are currently just a point behind where we were in 17/18, when we tailed off to 10th, and only 5 points behind Wilder's promotion season in 18/19, our second place season.

Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, on 45 points after 28 games, we are now just 2 points behind 08/09 (3rd) and 4 points ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 28 games.

"To Infinity and Beyond!"
With Apologies to Buzz Lightyear!

Graph 1

View attachment 130035


Graph 2

View attachment 130036


Graph 3

View attachment 130037

Fantastic work.

 

[Kozzy_is_my_Dad]

I bloody love these graphs, great work ucandomagic. I'd be surprised if we made top two though, Fulham and Bournemouth are different gravy.

What I will say though, is that we are looking tactically like our old selves, and tactically more organised than most other sides in the division. Fulham and Bournemouth have simply chucked money at it.

 

[ucandomagic]

I bloody love these graphs, great work ucandomagic. I'd be surprised if we made top two though, Fulham and Bournemouth are different gravy.

What I will say though, is that we are looking tactically like our old selves, and tactically more organised than most other sides in the division. Fulham and Bournemouth have simply chucked money at it.

You’re right, of course, even if we got there, 90 points isn’t a 100% guarantee for 2nd. In the last 11 seasons second has been less than 90 in 8 of those years. Even in those other 3 years, 3rd place was well below 90 so the team that actually finished second would still have been second with 90 points.

For us to get 90 points would be a ridiculous achievement, and it would be typical Blades bad luck for it not to be enough! The highest 3rd place points total in the last 11 years was the 89 by Brighton in 2016 - on the same points as Boro who were second - a record we don’t want to beat! In reality, we won’t get 90, but the longer we can make it seem possible the more likely the playoffs become.

 

[blade67]

The usual set of graphs: - When Hecky took over, I put together some possible results for each game which were the minimum to give us a chance of the playoffs (71 points) and almost certain playoff achievement (78 points). I was asked a week later to add a set of results that would see us almost certainly achieving automatic promotion (90 points).

Graph 1 includes our results after the West Brom win, compared to those 3 sets of forecasts. I make no comment - as Graph 1 speaks for itself (a picture tells 1,000 words). All I will say is that as long as we stay close to the autos line the playoffs become more and more likely - managing expectations avoids huge disappointment!

Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 28 games we had 46 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 50 in 18/19, so we are currently just a point behind where we were in 17/18, when we tailed off to 10th, and only 5 points behind Wilder's promotion season in 18/19, our second place season.

Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, on 45 points after 28 games, we are now just 2 points behind 08/09 (3rd) and 4 points ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 28 games.

"To Infinity and Beyond!"
With Apologies to Buzz Lightyear!

Graph 1

View attachment 130035


Graph 2

View attachment 130036


Graph 3

View attachment 130037

Great stuff. Keep it up. Love a graph me

 

[Snake]

With the vast majority of sides in this division well capable of taking points off each other I reckon 85 points might be enough for 2nd place this season. 12 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats. There you go, easy peasy this football lark! Premiership here we come. Please feel free to revisit this post on 7 May

 

[Scarebus]

Dick out for the second time today.

 

[MobileBlade]

You’re right, of course, even if we got there, 90 points isn’t a 100% guarantee for 2nd. In the last 11 seasons second has been less than 90 in 8 of those years. Even in those other 3 years, 3rd place was well below 90 so the team that actually finished second would still have been second with 90 points.

For us to get 90 points would be a ridiculous achievement, and it would be typical Blades bad luck for it not to be enough! The highest 3rd place points total in the last 11 years was the 89 by Brighton in 2016 - on the same points as Boro who were second - a record we don’t want to beat! In reality, we won’t get 90, but the longer we can make it seem possible the more likely the playoffs become.

That 2016 season both Middlesborough and Brighton finished on 89 pts with Boro going up automatically on goal difference. After 28 games, Boro had 56 points and Brighton had 50. This year, after 28 games, Bournemouth had 52 points, we are on 45.

 

[ThatJa]

That 2016 season both Middlesborough and Brighton finished on 89 pts with Boro going up automatically on goal difference. After 28 games, Boro had 56 points and Brighton had 50. This year, after 28 games, Bournemouth had 52 points, we are on 45.

So we need 1 more Win than Bournemouth from now till the end of the season and we'll finish above them.

 

[Overthehills]

I love a good graph as much as the next man....

But where is the variability?

This league is the toughest in the world
....and i swear to you that love live, breath and eat all things Sheffield united. But I still fear the knock on effect of two or three negatives.

I prefer to be negative and to be surprised and be wrong..... I'm sure most blades fans would agree.

Not to detract from the graphs though, I enjoy them never the less.

 

[William Large]

Cheers for this pal, I love a good graph and must admit to a little sex wee seeing these.
Keep it up! Ahem… I mean, keep it coming… welll… you know what I mean. Top work.

 

[BladesOnToast]

So we need 1 more Win than Bournemouth from now till the end of the season and we'll finish above them.

I think it's more than 1 win JL94x4 . They're currently 10 points ahead of us.

We have one game in hand on them, so if we win that then the gap is 7 points.

If we beat them at the Lane the gap is 4 points.

They have a much better GD than us so realistically we'd then need to gain 5 more points than they do.

(and for automatic promotion we'd also have to have a better run than QPR and Blackburn and any of the chasing pack, of course)