So can we afford Simmonsen? (with a twist)

[Ollessendro]

This whole Paddy malarky has got me thinking about whether we can afford to bring in a decent replacement. My initial thoughts are that are a resounding NO. many people are saying lets get SS in and he has indeed said he'd like to play for us. So let's look at the maths.

By selling Paddy for 750k I reckon, taking off his wages, we made about 400k (I refer you to post 71 in http://www.s24su.com/showthread.php?19029-Paddy-gone/page4 thread if you havent seen it).

When this QPR bid came in Birch was said to be trying to offer Paddy a new contract. I think we can safely presume it was more than 10k, probably in the region of 10k-14k. I'm fairly sure of this estimate (and the fact that QPR doubled it). 12k (a safe estimate of what SUFC would have been willing to pay Paddy) a week means 624k a year. (10k 520k per year and 14k would be 730k per year) would be So over 2 seasons (probable contract length) then this would cost approx £1.3 million (or 1 million if Paddy was on 10k a week or 1.5 million if he was on 14k).

So if we add the transfer money to the money we'd be expecting to pay Paddy then we have £1.7 million (between £1.5 to £2 million is the range based on the other estimates). This means (by my logic) we have the best part of £2 million to capture Steve Simmonsen. So what are the chances we can do that?

If we could get him on a free then we could offer him about 16k a week (based on a 2 year contract) or 14 -19k* a week depending on what we were to actually offer Paddy. But surely Stoke would want some sort of fee for him?

How much is realistic? He's 31 (therefore younger than) and arguably is better than Paddy. So should we be looking at paying around a million. Simonsen is a bloody good keeper and although Stoke might be fairly happy to let him go (he hasn't played a lot because Sorejnsen has been first choice) they surely wouldn't let him go for less than a mill.

If Stoke accepted 500k then we could offer him 10k a week and if they wanted a mill then we could offer him a mere 6 a week (both based on a 2 year contract). It's not even worth thinking about what the situation is if Stoke want more than a million.

Now I know that there are flaws to my workings out, such as Paddy's actual wage figure, lenght of contract etc, but I just want to see how much this could potentially cost united and whether signing him is a possibility.

I may stand corrected but the most realistic scenario is that we pay Stoke around a 1 million** and offer SS about 15k a week. Over 2 years that would cost us around £2.3 million for the 2 years and leave us out of pocket by 600k***. So where does the money come from?

The morale of the story is that unless we can sign Simmonsen for less than around 300-500k we are going to lose out. I personally see the clause in the contract as a royal fuck up. On the other hand, if we can steal SS for less than 300k we can afford to pay him a handsome salary over 2 or 3 years.




* Am I being naive that a keeper of proven Premiership class, playing for an established premiership club, would be on or willing to accept less than 20k a week?
** Maybe we could signing him for less, perhaps I'm missing something?
*** doing the calculation over a 3 year contract would leave us out of pocket by around 600k also. That's 1.8 million on Paddys (expected) 3 year contract + 400k made from the transfer. We could probably offer SS less (as it's a longer deal) say 12k a week resulting in his wages being the same as Paddy's. Then the difference is the diffference between SS transfers fee and the money recouped from paddy (approx 400k).

 

[Highbury_Blade]

His contract with Stoke finishes at the end of the month i believe, so he'll be a freebie.

 

[Foxy]

His contract with Stoke finishes at the end of the month i believe, so he'll be a freebie.

It does, but he was also on the retained list... So I'm not sure if they have an option or something?

 

[Bramley]

Fucking hell we get footnotes now as well...

 

[Houso]

 

[Grecian2000]

I believe there are four possible answers to your original question.

1. Yes AND we sign him.
2. Yes BUT someone else can afford even more so we don't sign him.
3. No. But we'll make out we do and those Pesky Agents have got in the way. Like two but with lies.
4. No and we'll come out and say so.

 

[LouTheBlade]

I believe there are four possible answers to your original question.

1. Yes AND we sign him.
2. Yes BUT someone else can afford even more so we don't sign him.
3. No. But we'll make out we do and those Pesky Agents have got in the way. Like two but with lies.
4. No and we'll come out and say so.

Knowing United it will probably be scenario 3. I dont care who we sign as long as they're up to the task. If Simonsen is up to it, try and sign him........if Zippy from Rainbow is up to it, try and sign him!

 

[DuncDisorderly]

His contract with Stoke finishes at the end of the month i believe, so he'll be a freebie.

Moral of the story: Before performing financial gymnastics, check your facts...

 

[Grecian2000]

Moral of the story: Before performing financial gymnastics, check your facts...

Indeed. On Stokes website he is a retained player and not one of those "out of contract". Has anyone got some information that is more official than that?

 

[SotonBlade]

If we could get him on a free then we could offer him about 16k a week (based on a 2 year contract) or 14 -19k* a week depending on what we were to actually offer Paddy.

Sorry Olle, but there's not a cat in hell's chance we're going to be paying anyone 16k a week for a very very long time!!!

 

[Ollessendro]

Moral of the story: Before performing financial gymnastics, check your facts...

Is someone upset because I'm a critic of your perpetual happy clapping and challenge your world through red and white tinted spectacles? Cheap dig at a knocker. Pathetic.

If we can get him on a free then the following applies.

If we could get him on a free then we could offer him about 16k a week (based on a 2 year contract) or 14 -19k* a week depending on what we were to actually offer Paddy. But surely Stoke would want some sort of fee for him?

If we were to offer him a 3 year deal then we could afford (based on the logic from this argument) to pay him about 14k a week. We may offer him less (as it is a long contract) and he might accept.

So we could actaully benefit for the selling of Paddy with a bit of smart manouvering. However with the whole Naysmith situation this seems highly unlikely. We are obviously offering peanuts and/or short term contracts. If Naysmith was willing to join a League 1 club on a 2 year deal then our offer must have been piss poor. This makes me feel that our chances of getting Simonsen (even though we can afford it) are snot so great.

 

[Revolution]

It is clear that United cannot afford to pay the sort of wages you are talking about Ollesandro. Unless Simonsen comes on a 3 month loan, he ain't coming at all.

I reckon the plan is to get another 3rd choice PL keeper in on loan, as that went so well last year. We'll be starting with the full 5 loans in the squad and the keeper will be one.

Second most likely option, I suppos, is that we'll sign a non-PL keeper - proabably League 1.

Last option is give the Estonian a game, but I've always assumed they won't do this unless they absolutely had to.

I might add that judging from some of the reporting I've seen about the Kenny saga it is possible that United were actually not expecting Kenny to leave at all, that this all came out of the blue, and as a result they have no plan at all...

 

[Highbury_Blade]

Is someone upset because I'm a critic of your perpetual happy clapping and challenge your world through red and white tinted spectacles? Cheap dig at a knocker. Pathetic.

I think he was having a pop at me actually...

 

[BornOnShorehamStreet]

I said elsewhere, Blackie is going in goal next season.

 

[norfolkblade]

Last option is give the Estonian a game, but I've always assumed they won't do this unless they absolutely had to.

So what was the point in even bothering to sign the lad in the first place? Let him have a go pre-season and see how he fares, that Forster guy who Norwich had on loan last season was good, have they signed him yet? If not, I'm sure we could get a deal out of that, who else is there realistically though?

 

[Bladesman]

Knowing United it will probably be scenario 3. I dont care who we sign as long as they're up to the task. If Simonsen is up to it, try and sign him........if Zippy from Rainbow is up to it, try and sign him!

I reckon Zippy is a more realistic target when you consider our budget.

 

[bladesman1889]

Sorry but this is ridiculous. All the numbers are based on guesswork, for all you know you could be thousands of pounds away for each estimated salary.

 

[Come from away]

But, like Connolly, this issue will not be the willingness to move but our willingness to cough up extra cash. I'd rather we played it smart, there are no super star teams in the league this year so a solid team that can turn out week in week out will do very well thank-you.

 

[DuncDisorderly]

I think he was having a pop at me actually...

I wasn't having a pop at anyone. I was just hinting that before constructing a huge argument based on 'facts' which Ollie obviouslty spent a lot of time and energy on, it might be a good idea to check said 'facts ' to find out if they are actually true. His 'Can we afford to sack Blackwell' thread ended up proving a 'case' on financial terms, but the 'case' chosen completely missed the point for the same reason.

'perpetual happy clapping'? 'red and white specs'? Read my posts a little more carefully before dismissing me as that. Just because I'm not sitting on the window ledge threatening to jump because of every shread of news, rumour or speculation doesn't make me either of those things...

 

[Pinchy]

I reckon Zippy is a more realistic target when you consider our budget.

Zippy is a decent shot stopper but fails to command his area and is always susceptible to the odd comedy moment. Modern football demands a big commanding keeper with real presence and authority. Bungle is the obvious choice.

 

[Revolution]

'perpetual happy clapping'? 'red and white specs'? Read my posts a little more carefully before dismissing me as that.

I read your posts very carefully. They are well written, but Ollesandro is bang on. Every action and decision of the club is defended at all times, irrespective of its merits. That is happy clapping as everyone on this board understands it. If it's a particularly bad decision - on a transfer, say - you might go so far as to say you don't care because it's out of your control, but you will never express a contrary view.

As things stand, we have no first team ready goalkeeper, no first team ready right back, one centre half, and two poor left backs. We apparently have no money and as we don't have enough bodies to go into those places we are in a terrible negotiating position. A fine defence was dismantled over the space of 12 months using decision making and reasoning that leaves a lot to be desired. None of the good defenders we have sold were signerd by the current manager, who showed an alarming inability to sign good defenders (or, for that matter, fit defenders) last season.

Against this background, it is only natural for people who are going to devote a good proportion of their free time and spend hundreds, if not thousands, of pounds watching this team next year are going to want to discuss this and, yes, get worked up about it and want to vent about it even though, horror of horrors, they can't control it. In my view, it is your failure to see why people are reacting in this way that is unusual, not the reactions themselves.

 

[DuncDisorderly]

Every action and decision of the club is defended at all times, irrespective of its merits. That is happy clapping as everyone on this board understands it. If it's a particularly bad decision - on a transfer, say - you might go so far as to say you don't care because it's out of your control, but you will never express a contrary view. .

Perhaps it is just my age and my experiences of life that make me a pragmatist. I accept the facts of the situation, although I may not like accepting the situation itself. Happy clapping as I understand it is saying every decision the club makes is right. I don't. I know there are issues at the club, but I don't believe every scrap of ITK bullshit and go off on one about it. My choice.

As an example I wasn't happy to see the Kyles go, in the end it almost certainly cost us a play-off place, and the football was not as good without them in the side. But at the time we needed the cash more than the players. Thats a fact, and in the end you can't really argue against it. In business one of the most valuable lessons I learned was to think (and be prepare to do) the unthinkable if the situation demand its. 'Kill the favourite son to save the family' was the phrase. Well we killed them both, but if that helps the family to survive even at the expense of a play-off place and possible promotion then the price was worth paying. The problem with the 'shit or bust' approach taken by some clubs is that 'bust' is the most likely outcome. Kev McCabe doesn't want that for us, and even though the decision was unpopular we are better for that. Not happy clapping, just accepting the facts of the situation.

However when the criticism of the club and its officials and players is over the top and unfair, as it often is, then I do take a contrary view and sometimes play devils advocate or poke fun a bit with my fellow posters to show the contradictions in their positions. I do try to be thought-provoking and balanced, ("I'm right and you're wrong" isn't a discussion...) and i guess thats why I might come across as being a bit more on the clubs side than I sometimes am.

In my view, it is your failure to see why people are reacting in this way that is unusual, not the reactions themselves.

I can see perfectly how people are reacting to every snippet of news, gossip and speculation. I am not surprised at all by it, but I am often disappointed that there is so much knee-jerking going on. Its not good for your wellbeing that there is so much venting of spleens over next to nothing, and it certainly doesn't help the club any. However, take a look at any 20 boards on footymad, and you will see all of these threads in the top few.

-Why have we sold our best player?
-Why haven't we bought anyone yet?
-The player we just bought is a donkey
- We're broke/boned/doomed to relegation battle

It is just human nature, as you say...

 

[Micalijo]

Perhaps it is just my age and my experiences of life that make me a pragmatist. I accept the facts of the situation, although I may not like accepting the situation itself. Happy clapping as I understand it is saying every decision the club makes is right. I don't. I know there are issues at the club, but I don't believe every scrap of ITK bullshit and go off on one about it. My choice.

As an example I wasn't happy to see the Kyles go, in the end it almost certainly cost us a play-off place, and the football was not as good without them in the side. But at the time we needed the cash more than the players. Thats a fact, and in the end you can't really argue against it. In business one of the most valuable lessons I learned was to think (and be prepare to do) the unthinkable if the situation demand its. 'Kill the favourite son to save the family' was the phrase. Well we killed them both, but if that helps the family to survive even at the expense of a play-off place and possible promotion then the price was worth paying. The problem with the 'shit or bust' approach taken by some clubs is that 'bust' is the most likely outcome. Kev McCabe doesn't want that for us, and even though the decision was unpopular we are better for that. Not happy clapping, just accepting the facts of the situation.

However when the criticism of the club and its officials and players is over the top and unfair, as it often is, then I do take a contrary view and sometimes play devils advocate or poke fun a bit with my fellow posters to show the contradictions in their positions. I do try to be thought-provoking and balanced, ("I'm right and you're wrong" isn't a discussion...) and i guess thats why I might come across as being a bit more on the clubs side than I sometimes am.



I can see perfectly how people are reacting to every snippet of news, gossip and speculation. I am not surprised at all by it, but I am often disappointed that there is so much knee-jerking going on. Its not good for your wellbeing that there is so much venting of spleens over next to nothing, and it certainly doesn't help the club any. However, take a look at any 20 boards on footymad, and you will see all of these threads in the top few.

-Why have we sold our best player?
-Why haven't we bought anyone yet?
-The player we just bought is a donkey
- We're broke/boned/doomed to relegation battle

It is just human nature, as you say...

Poke fun at fellow posters, play devils advocate, thought provoking, balanced or just call them a wanker, (which you did I think apologise for - accepted).

Sorry Duncs but i find this stuff you come out in defence of your posts just as boring and irrational as you find my 'Blackwell is a pathetic, incompetent, obnoxious, arrogant joke' posts. You say above you accept why people are frustrated but this never comes across in your posts as far as I can see. WHy does it bother you that people make 'knee-jerk' reactions on a forum that has no say whatsover in the running of SUFC?

Why is it a fact that we needed the cash more than Kyle Walker? How do you know? You are speculating just like we all do. Were we that skint, was it impossible for the club to survive and keep Walker? What are the 'issues' you know of at the club? A shite manager? A skint chairman? Player unrest? WHy not talk about them rather than commentate on the reaction of everyone else who does want to talk about it?

 

[Come from away]

Suggesting that much of what goes on here is a debate is giving us too much credit. For a real debate people need to know something first, most of what we 'discuss' is created by filling in the blanks. PROBABLY THE ONLY TIME THERE IS MUCH MERIT IS WHEN WE GO ON ABOUT A GAME WE HAVE SEEN. Though many will argue (DEBATE) about the games they have not seen.

 

[BornOnShorehamStreet]

Why is it a fact that we needed the cash more than Kyle Walker? How do you know? You are speculating just like we all do. Were we that skint, was it impossible for the club to survive and keep Walker?

In truth, Micalijo, none of us know the answer to that but we may well have needed the cash more than the player because of a cash flow problem.

Many, perhaps most, businesses that fail do so because they have a cash flow problem. It doesn't necessarily follow that they aren't good businesses but in the very fragile economy we have now, a positive cash flow is essential, even in football.

Maybe that's why we needed the cash more than Walker (or Naughton, or Beattie, or Kilgallon, or Paddy, or Naysmith etc....)

 

[DuncDisorderly]

Sorry Duncs but i find this stuff you come out in defence of your posts just as boring and irrational as you find my 'Blackwell is a pathetic, incompetent, obnoxious, arrogant joke' posts. You say above you accept why people are frustrated but this never comes across in your posts as far as I can see.

I'm not going to defend my posts. I find peoples over-reaction as frustrating as people seem to find my lack of over-reaction. Anything that is written here with the intention or objective of changing the clubs mind about anything (are you listening Mr McCabe...) is pathetic. Anything that comes from those who appear to be terminally afflicted with negativity, such that you can see real, physical anger in their posts just makes me sad.

Why is it a fact that we needed the cash more than Kyle Walker? How do you know? You are speculating just like we all do.

Nope. No speculation. We sold him, therefore we can deduce that the money was thought by the Chairman to be more valuable than the player, at the time, without the benefit of hindsight etc etc etc. Simple decision. Kyle or cash? The decision was cash.

What are the 'issues' you know of at the club? A shite manager? A skint chairman? Player unrest? WHy not talk about them rather than commentate on the reaction of everyone else who does want to talk about it?

I comment on it because of this very reason. You say the Chairman is skint. I would say he isn't skint by any measure we would recognise. You say player unrest. i say you cant find any organisation anywhere where everyone is 100% happy with everything. You say the manager is shite, but I say that he isn't, and I back that up with (what I think are) sensible points. You can believe what you like. I don't care. The problem for me isn't 'talking about it'. Its the constant regurgitation of entrenched views, or the standard tactic of starting a thread with (paraphrasing.) 'Oh God we're shit. The Chairman is a liar and the Managers a tosser, we've sold our best player, we'll replace them with a donkey and we're getting relegated. What happened to this great club of ours, etc etc' Im not singling anyone out, btw, and I do appreciate that these forums are not the home of high quality debate.

Well heres what I think about us. For at least a generation we have been at the top end of the other mediocre clubs in England. We haven't achieved much, but then since coming back up through the leagues we haven't had the calamities that our older cousins in S6 have had. We are a middle of the road club. Never spend too much, always do OK. We do not 'belong' in the Premier League any more than Wigan, Blackburn or Fulham, or anyone else that got lucky with some cash and find they've stuck there. With the exception of a couple of shortish periods in living memory, we haven't been anything other than the plucky underachieving underdogs, more spirit than skill. No one supports United for the trophies we win, because we don't win any. No point moaning about it. We will always sell our best players, like every other club, we will always have a few crap ones, and the manager will always be criticised by people who know less than 5% about his job, but know for sure they could do it better. He's not a great manager, but he is a decent one. I've never met him (except briefly at club events) so I dont know whether he is a nice guy or not. No-one seems to care if Alan Sugar or Alex Ferguson are nice guys. Success means not having the question asked. Why we should care when he is not as successful, I don't know.

Players come, players go. Does it bother me? No, not at all. I don't support United for the glory. What will be will be. We used to be the spirit of underdog, and personally I feel that we haven't come to terms with being expected to do well and win things, especially as that doesn't match what we can actually do. The expectations have shifted a long way over the last five years and it isn't a suit of clothes that fit comfortably. There is no nicer occasion for me than taking my kids down to BDTBL. Maybe its my own failing, because I dont care if its beautiful football or enjoying a scruffy 1-0, where we've been outplayed for 80 mins, and scored late on to win. Maybe thats because we've grown up with. Maybe it proves Lens point that we (as a support) dont want success enough, that we have mediocrity because we are happy with it. Or does it prove that we are more realistic, or perhaps we dare not dream incase our dreams are crushed as so many peoples were during the 70's and 80's in Sheffield as we grew up. (Maybe its different for exiles). A moderate provincial football team, historically seen as No 2 in its own City (how different it might have been if the pigs were 'Sheffield City'. Excellent marketing choosing a unique name.), picked on by the FA, PL, World Cup committee. The old fears don't take long to surface. We seem to feel that we have to 'prove' we are worthy, that we are the top club in Sheffield, that we deserve something. We are trying too hard. And when it doesn't happen, we strike out too much blaming all and sundry for the natural order of things.

Outcomes are what life is about. The rest is bullshit. Not for us the crusing to 5-0's, but doing Leeds with two goals in injury time, or Forest when they thought they had us beaten. Both occasion we won the battle but ending up losing the war. This is our delight. Winning battles. Wars are beyond us, but they give us better memories than anyone could ask for. My aspirations and expectations for United are limited. I think we will get back to the PL. Maybe this year, maybe in five or ten. We will get to a couple of cup quarter finals, maybe even a semi-final in the next few years. We won't win anything worthwhile. I don't know, maybe peoples expectations of success are driven by their own lack of success. Maybe I've experienced enough success and failure in my life to 'treat those two imposters just the same'. Whatever.

I dont suppose you will get my point of view, just as I struggle to get yours. It doesn't matter...

UTB, whichever angle you come from...

 

[JohnDenver]

We're an "underachieving underdog". I think you've defined the Blades condition in two words.

There are those of us who see United primarily as underachieving, and those who primarily see United as underdogs. Len at one end of the spectrum and you at the other.

 

[Nick Jansky]

We're an "underachieving underdog". I think you've defined the Blades condition in two words.

There are those of us who see United primarily as underachieving, and those who primarily see United as underdogs. Len at one end of the spectrum and you at the other.

The perception we have as ourselves as underdogs is precisely because we have underachieved. There isn't another club of our size and with our level of support that hasn't won something in living memory or at least qualified for Europe. Even the likes of Norwich for fuck's sake. The fact that we have never had our day in the sun is, quite simply, against the law of averages.

I tend to agree with Len's sentiments, but just have issues with the way he expresses them. The club's decision making on the big issues has been poor for as long as I can remember (which isn't necessarily the same as mismanagement) and every time it has looked like we might be making some sort of progress, off come the wheels again, time after time. The relegation the season after finishing 6th in 74/75, the sale of Deane the first time around which cost us another relegation, the appointment of Robson.........

I understand the frustrations, but don't think the way to deal with them is by screaming abuse & vitriol at absolutely everything the club does. It does get some things right, just not enough of the things that really matter, and it never has.

 

[BornOnShorehamStreet]

Thanks button for DD

 

[djbaldken]

Thanks again button for DD. Great post. Well written.