Coronavirus - a real season spoiling threat?

[Hamburg Blade]

Fucking hell, seeing so many self-professed experts on here and social media spouting their ill-founded ideas, generally along the lines of ‘it’s not as bad as flu’, ‘it’s a media overreaction’ and so on makes me understand why the country voted for Brexit. It also makes me sad.
Here’s a tip: if an expert suggests a course of action, it’s because they’re an expert, and they’re basing that on knowledge, experience and understanding of the issue. They know better than you, regardless of how clever you think you are or how much you think ‘sheeple’ need to stop listening to mainstream media.

God forbid you should ever start thinking for yourself.

 

[burtonstreetblade]

These days if experts are asked the opinion and are subsequently shown to have totally underestimated the effect, they are ridiculed and mercilessly reminded of it (Michael Fish and the hurricane comes to mind). If you shown to have exaggerated you can always use the “I was describing worst case scenario“ get out that seems to leave you with some credibility.

 

[sitwell]

Given our differences on the Left and the Right, I think we can all agree that supporting the NHS for a potential crisis is more important than football.

Politicians from all sides are being hung out to dry by dickheads like Piers Morgan, no fan of John Ashworth but he tried to tell Morgan at least 6 times this morning that they had to follow the advice of the Chief Medical officer, is it so fucking difficult to understand that ? No wonder no one will go on that cunts programme.

 

[Houso]

I'm the (ironically named) Le Cynique.

Even if it stalled at another 10 people who died, then that's still 10 more people than would have died had this strain coronavirus never existed. It's going to kill many multiples more than terrorism, but look at how much of an impact that has on our society.

The flu argument is massively misleading too. The commonly cited statistics have been argued about forever. Some studies believe there are only a few hundred deaths due to flu each year in the UK. The often mentioned tens of thousands are grouped together when pneumonia takes hold, but there are many causes for it rather than just flu which is an easy diagnosis.

Anyway, getting off topic here. Hopefully the season can play itself out even if it's behind closed doors.

 

[BushBlade]

The older I get, the less faith I have in so-called "experts".
Common sense is probably more reliable.

But I’m communicating to you on a hand held device. I’m typing in London and you’re reading it in Sheffield, almost simultaneously. How do think we got things like phones and computers? And if your phone or computer broke, would you take it to someone with expertise or just have a go at fixing it yourself?
Experts do get things wrong, because they’re humans, but I’d rather listen to someone who has a substantial knowledge of viruses and how they work, than a bloke who lays Tarmac for a living.

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

Billy Sharp is an expert at scoring goals
I think I'm better
So Wilder should stick me in on Saturday
.... because I know better than the experts

I think I'm getting the hang of it
Good Thread guys......

 

[Dkc]

The whole world isn’t a conspiracy against you, you know

You do realise who's our PM don't you?

 

[Hamburg Blade]

I hope all these people saying that experts should never be questioned will remember that when they post opinions in future which go against what an expert has said. I will happily remind them that their opinion is garbage, because it goes against an expert's opinion, I trust they'll accept that graciously and retract their comments.

 

[AWetFlannel]

The older I get, the less faith I have in so-called "experts".
Common sense is probably more reliable.

And just like that, we have become America.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

You do realise who's our PM don't you?

Having devoted his life to politics, been Mayor of London and is now a Prime Minister, he is clearly an expert in politics and in running the country. I can't believe you'd contemplate criticising anything he does.

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

I hope all these people saying that experts should never be questioned will remember that when they post opinions in future which go against what an expert has said. I will happily remind them that their opinion is garbage, because it goes against an expert's opinion, I trust they'll accept that graciously and retract their comments.

FACT....

 

[BushBlade]

I hope all these people saying that experts should never be questioned will remember that when they post opinions in future which go against what an expert has said. I will happily remind them that their opinion is garbage, because it goes against an expert's opinion, I trust they'll accept that graciously and retract their comments.

Experts should be questioned. Rigorously by people who understand the issues and know what to ask. They should also be questioned by lay people to make sure there is no echo chamber thinking.
Posting stuff on a football forum isn’t that though.

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

I like hearing about simple solutions to very dangerous problems.
In Victorian London, an "expert" concluded that a lot of Cholera victims were drawing their water from the same, single well. He stole the handle & saved the World.

 

[mablethorpe utd]

Looks like it...unless deludamol has antiviral properties?

Depends if they get paid

Just in case you haven't seen it, this website carries loads of up-to-date stuff about COVID-19 including mortality rates by age, illness and sex.

Shows that even us oldies with underlying, chronic conditions might just scrape through

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

People will aways panic. I panicked like fuck before Xmas when the wife and I both had to have a load of tests for cancer, we came through that. We are just carrying on as normal now. If this takes us so be it. Chin up.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Experts should be questioned. Rigorously by people who understand the issues and know what to ask. They should also be questioned by lay people to make sure there is no echo chamber thinking.
Posting stuff on a football forum isn’t that though.

The put-down that this is a football forum and therefore nobody on it is worth listening to is often brought up on non-football related threads. When the forum addresses topics other than football, it is no more a football forum than any other non-football forum, and I personally find that it has a good cross section of opinions from a wide range of people, many of whom have something valuable to contribute. I don't know how you'd better that in any non-professional, open-to-all real-world situation.

 

[Le Cynique]

Some people seem to have taken what I’ve said to mean “obey everything you’re told and never question.” Of course I don’t mean that.
However, there’s a huge gulf between “question things” and “assume that experts are no more intelligent than you and should therefore not be listened to.”

 

[Hamburg Blade]

I like hearing about simple solutions to very dangerous problems.
In Victorian London, an "expert" concluded that a lot of Cholera victims were drawing their water from the same, single well. He stole the handle & saved the World.

Correct. And a wonderful example of how one man went against the "experts" of the time who thought it was airborne - in fact you can say he went against the consensus of scientific opinion at the time.
Thank goodness he didn't listen to the experts.

 

[AWetFlannel]

Correct. And a wonderful example of how one man went against the "experts" of the time who thought it was airborne - in fact you can say he went against the consensus of scientific opinion at the time.
Thank goodness he didn't listen to the experts.

But he was a 'scientist' of sorts himself, who used logic and deduction to come to a conclusion.

You need to have grounds to disagree with an expert. Most people's example of this is 'I don't like what he said, therefore, what does he know anyway?'

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Some people seem to have taken what I’ve said to mean “obey everything you’re told and never question.” Of course I don’t mean that.
However, there’s a huge gulf between “question things” and “assume that experts are no more intelligent than you and should therefore not be listened to.”

Your orignal post very much suggested that. And I can't recall any posts that suggest experts shouldn't be listened to at all on the basis of a lower intelligence.
I also think bringing intelligence levels into it is wrong. If I prove I'm more intelligent than an expert, it doesn't mean I know more or am better qualified on a particular subject - nor if he's more intelligent and an expert in his field, does it mean he's infallible and beyond questioning.

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

Sorry if this has been mentioned... I dont have enough time to read the whole thread. Allegedly indoor areas are much worse than outdoor for spreading the virus. Lets just open the stands without indoor concourses? So the Kop would be fine, the others less so.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

But he was a 'scientist' of sorts himself, who used logic and deduction to come to a conclusion.

You need to have grounds to disagree with an expert. Most people's example of this is 'I don't like what he said, therefore, what does he know anyway?'

We live in a time where "scientist" has become the new Priest from the middle ages - when it was unthinkable to question someone who had access to knowledge that the ordinary person did not. There is nothing to stop a lay person informing himself and becoming an expert on a matter. There is nothing wrong with a lay person applying his own cognitive abilities to the information put before him and forming his own opinions.
The world has not got to the point it has by everyone kowtowing to anyone with a higher "scientific status". In fact, in most areas, when you look at the scientists themselves, they are disagreeing with each other all the time. It's how advances are made.
As I say, if people want to play the card that experts know better and shouldn't be questioned by lay people, then fine, but I doubt they really think that and will be back criticising football managers, politicians and various other experts in the morning. It's just an argument being used now, because it suits.

 

[HodgysBrokenThumb]

God forbid you should ever start thinking for yourself.

Thinking for yourself is a good way to start learning expertise. It is likely that an early thought will be to look at evidence, and consider the conclusions of those who have looked at the evidence previously. You may well conclude that sensible experts recognise that forecasting can never ever be a precise exercise; you can only deal in probabilities. Any expert who knows 100% what the future will be is not an expert. But some are much closer to the truth than others. Listen with an open mind to their conclusions, and decide for yourself who to believe. But an open mind means just that.
Edit: you have just addressed some of this in post 321.

 

[tincan]

Experts should be questioned. Rigorously by people who understand the issues and know what to ask. They should also be questioned by lay people to make sure there is no echo chamber thinking.
Posting stuff on a football forum isn’t that though.

I was working in Saudi when MERs broke out. Our safety director put a notice out to the Saudi ministry to wash hands thoroughly with "soap and water". The ministry related the warning to the construction site's on TV and it was on TV . Unfortunately the autocratic message they printed was "soup and water".Some of the Filipino's did ask which type of soup.!!

Good intentions and expertise can be destroyed by a typo.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Correct. And a wonderful example of how one man went against the "experts" of the time who thought it was airborne - in fact you can say he went against the consensus of scientific opinion at the time.
Thank goodness he didn't listen to the experts.

There is always uncertainty in science, that’s an inherent characteristic of science – it will constantly update as new information is found out. It is constantly testing and refining hypotheses. The current scientific experts involved in this particular infection don’t have all the absolutely-certain answers to everything right now, but are basing their responses on the understanding gathered in their responses to similar infections. In terms of who to trust on views on this, they are the best people to trust on this. You can get a pretty good sense of a politician’s view on science from how closely scientific expertise is at the centre of the response to this. In the UK, it’s been commendably good. In the US, pretty poor.

 

[Cerberus Blade]

Sorry if this has been mentioned... I dont have enough time to read the whole thread. Allegedly indoor areas are much worse than outdoor for spreading the virus. Lets just open the stands without indoor concourses? So the Kop would be fine, the others less so.

You can catch it from going through turnstiles, so open the big gates and let us in for nowt!

 

[raimond]

I don't suppose anyone knows the statistics involved in an FA Cup draw do they??

 

[Bladesthorpe]

Having devoted his life to politics, been Mayor of London and is now a Prime Minister, he is clearly an expert in politics and in running the country. I can't believe you'd contemplate criticising anything he does.

Seriously ? Are you one of his many offspring.

 

[BushBlade]

.....

The put-down that this is a football forum and therefore nobody on it is worth listening to is often brought up on non-football related threads. When the forum addresses topics other than football, it is no more a football forum than any other non-football forum, and I personally find that it has a good cross section of opinions from a wide range of people, many of whom have something valuable to contribute. I don't know how you'd better that in any non-professional, open-to-all real-world situation.

that’s not what I said at all. My point is, we’re not addressing the experts directly to question them. It’s not that I don’t value people’s opinions, it’s just that I place more value on the opinion of someone who is a specialist in their field. I don’t think that’s a particularly bizarre approach. If I distrust the diagnosis a doctor gives me, I would seek an opinion from another doctor, rather than a car mechanic or a plumber.

 

[Dkc]

Having devoted his life to politics, been Mayor of London and is now a Prime Minister, he is clearly an expert in politics and in running the country. I can't believe you'd contemplate criticising anything he does.

That's reassuring, thanks. That mop-haired power-hungry buffoon is of course beyond criticism because he's an "expert in politics and in running the country." I stand corrected.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

There is nothing to stop a lay person informing himself and becoming an expert on a matter.

On a response to an epidemic? Seriously?

There is nothing to stop a lay person informing him or herself and becoming an expert – after a number of years of study, research, and practice.