Prem Matches. How will we fair / cope?

[SelbyBlade]

My initial thoughts on putting this post up was a worry in the shower about the away game at Wolves in the 17/18 season. They ripped us to shreds in the penalty area with quick passes and superb positional play. This team with additions came 7th last season. Also in the 18/19 season where Harvey Barnes out paced Bash over 8 yards many can do this in the Prem.

Now we have rightly celebrated and given it the big one for going up, the reality of playing teams that could rip us to shreds has dawned.

We will take some big beatings next season but I'm not bothered as long as we continue to improve and build. Hopefully pick up a few wins on the way, enough to stay in the division but if not, have strengthened even more.

To look at how we will cope I think we need to split the Prem into 3 parts -
A) The Top 6 all looking for Champions League / winning the Prem
B) The Mulch Out of the top 6 but clear of any relegation threat
C) Threat of relegation.

Obviously we are in "C" So we need to look at getting as many points as possible from B & C. Any points we get from A would have to be considered bonus points.
So Hopefully we can get 4 bonus points from catching a Hazard free Chelsea on an off day and maybe a draw against Man Utd who will be re-building.
The Mulch set are possible points games Everton, Wolves, Leicester, the cheats and possibly Newcastle depending on ownership. If we can get 7 points from these five we would need 27 points from the C teams, to match our last points tally in the prem which should be enough to stay up.
The C teams are therefore Watford, Palace, Bournmouth, Burnley, Southampton, Brighton, Aston Villa and Norwich. We would need the equivalent of 9 wins from 16 games including 8 away.
We have a chance at BDTBL with the crowd behind us and with a few additions, I just hope we have enough. Our tactics will catch some out but we will get caught on the counter a few times.
So my opinion is that it will be close but we have a good chance to stay up.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

My initial thoughts on putting this post up was a worry in the shower about the away game at Wolves in the 17/18 season. They ripped us to shreds in the penalty area with quick passes and superb positional play. This team with additions came 7th last season. Also in the 18/19 season where Harvey Barnes out paced Bash over 8 yards many can do this in the Prem.

Now we have rightly celebrated and given it the big one for going up, the reality of playing teams that could rip us to shreds has dawned.

We will take some big beatings next season but I'm not bothered as long as we continue to improve and build. Hopefully pick up a few wins on the way, enough to stay in the division but if not, have strengthened even more.

To look at how we will cope I think we need to split the Prem into 3 parts -
A) The Top 6 all looking for Champions League / winning the Prem
B) The Mulch Out of the top 6 but clear of any relegation threat
C) Threat of relegation.

Obviously we are in "C" So we need to look at getting as many points as possible from B & C. Any points we get from A would have to be considered bonus points.
So Hopefully we can get 4 bonus points from catching a Hazard free Chelsea on an off day and maybe a draw against Man Utd who will be re-building.
The Mulch set are possible points games Everton, Wolves, Leicester, the cheats and possibly Newcastle depending on ownership. If we can get 7 points from these five we would need 27 points from the C teams, to match our last points tally in the prem which should be enough to stay up.
The C teams are therefore Watford, Palace, Bournmouth, Burnley, Southampton, Brighton, Aston Villa and Norwich. We would need the equivalent of 9 wins from 16 games including 8 away.
We have a chance at BDTBL with the crowd behind us and with a few additions, I just hope we have enough. Our tactics will catch some out but we will get caught on the counter a few times.
So my opinion is that it will be close but we have a good chance to stay up.

A) Man City & Liverpool contesting the title (2 teams)
B) The next 4 all looking for Champions League qualification (4 teams)
C) The Mulch Out of the top 6 but clear of any relegation threat (8 teams)
D) Threat of relegation. (3 teams)
E) Desperately fighting against relegation (3 teams)

 

[DaveBassettsgoneonholiday]

After watching the Champions League Final I'm more concerned with how quickly we'll learn to cope with/ become savvy to the blatent bloody cheating that goes on with Premier league players.
Kane,Rose & Trippier to name but three.
We may be in for a fair few cards and suspensions in the first months of our return.

 

[bromtom]

We really haven't played a lot of Premier League quality teams. Wolves yes, but they don't really play like the rest of the Premier League so aren't that good an indicator, we also had a pretty poor team out that night, with James Wilson upfront and Holmes and Evans in midfield.

We played Stoke preseason 17/18 and beat them 2-1, they played a good team strength wise but they would go on to get relegated.

We also played a basically first choice Leicester side at the King Power in the FA Cup last season, but again we had a considerably worse 11, Wilson and Donaldson up front, Lafferty, Lundstram and Carruthers in midfield.

We were in that game though, and had opportunities to score, think we hit the post and Schmeicel needed to earn his money for a few shots.

Blackman had a few saves to make too, but it was only a bit of Vardy/Mahrez magic that did us in the end.

So basically, I don't know haha

 

[guancheblade]

After watching the Champions League Final I'm more concerned with how quickly we'll learn to cope with/ become savvy to the blatent bloody cheating that goes on with Premier league players.
Kane,Rose & Trippier to name but three.
We may be in for a fair few cards and suspensions in the first months of our return.

The Liverpool 3 in midfield are exceptionally narrow... get on the counter and bomb JOC and Bash down the flanks and we'll create openings. Not saying for one moment we'll beat em, but will give ourselves the best chance.

 

[bornablade]

Historically speaking the top teams take a bit of time to 'get going' at the start of the season.

It would be good to face a couple of the top 4 early doors to take advantage and get some points on the board.

 

[Liaminho9]

After watching the Champions League Final I'm more concerned with how quickly we'll learn to cope with/ become savvy to the blatent bloody cheating that goes on with Premier league players.
Kane,Rose & Trippier to name but three.
We may be in for a fair few cards and suspensions in the first months of our return.

Hopefully VAR will help stamp some of that out.

 

[Geordie Blade]

I thought exactly the same when we went up to the Championship.

“Well, it’s all very well having overlapping centre backs against Scunthorpe and Gillingham, but we’ll get ripped to shreds against the likes of Leeds and Reading”.

 

[Gimli]

I honestly think that after the A group, the mulch and the c teams are all games where we can take points and, particularly at home, win!

38 points or 1 point per game would just about keep us up and that works out at 3 wins and a draw in every 10 games more or less - that is doable!!

 

[GrayBlade]

A lot depends on how many of our players can step up to the mark and stay there, we could be surprised but also disappointed. Many on here will have experienced themselves what it’s like to step up a level or two in sport if not football. You train harder and you focus harder and it often seems as though you’ve cracked it early on, but maintaining the higher standards over a season is the hard bit. It’s as much mental strength as physical ability.

The thing is we probably need around 5 or current 6 players to be able to do what Harry, Jags, Lowton, Brooks, Naughton and Walker did and for them to form the nucleus and existing heart of the side while new players replace those who can’t maintain their form at P.L. level.

I’ve no doubt that some of our current lads will make the grade, remember the Pigs taking the piss at the prospect of Harry making the step up? They reckoned he’d got the turning circle of a battleship yet not only did he make the transition, he became an England regular. As for who can do the biz from our existing squad I’ve no idea, maybe it’s one for another thread, but as I said I think somebody will surprise us.

 

[grafikhaus]

37 points. (No, not how many more than Wednesday we've got over the last 2 seasons ) but, based on the last ten PL seasons, is how many have seen a club escape relegation (37.6 actually).



Every game will be a 'cup final', but we've run Spurs, Man. U, Leicester, Southampton (who had Sadio Mané ) close quite recently - with a worse team and much worse managers. The figures in red above ^^^ show that you're never 'established' in the PL. Villa ended 25 continuous season with a paltry 17 points. If Fulham (13 seasons in the PL) and Stoke (10) can do it, so can we.

We've just got to enjoy it - no more Checkatrade Trophy, freezing nights playing Fleetwood, Crawley, Stevenage, Shrewsbury etc.

And if we go down first time? Loadsa money! And, if CW is around, a prompt return to the top flight.

It's the journey, not the destination.

 

[BushBlade]

37 points. (No, not how many more than Wednesday we've got over the last 2 seasons ) but, based on the last ten PL seasons, is how many have seen a club escape relegation (37.6 actually).

View attachment 54707

Every game will be a 'cup final', but we've run Spurs, Man. U, Leicester, Southampton (who had Sadio Mané ) close quite recently - with a worse team and much worse managers. The figures in red above ^^^ show that you're never 'established' in the PL. Villa ended 25 continuous season with a paltry 17 points. If Fulham (13 seasons in the PL) and Stoke (10) can do it, so can we.

We've just got to enjoy it - no more Checkatrade Trophy, freezing nights playing Fleetwood, Crawley, Stevenage, Shrewsbury etc.

And if we go down first time? Loadsa money! And, if CW is around, a prompt return to the top flight.

It's the journey, not the destination.

Half of the teams that finished in 17th went down the following season. Doesn’t look good for Brighton.

I’m not that bothered if we stay up. I don’t mind the championship and I’ll probably like it even more if we’ve got parachute payments. In fact, for as long as we’ve got Wilder and Knill, I’m just not worried.

 

[grafikhaus]

Half of the teams that finished in 17th went down the following season. Doesn’t look good for Brighton.

Excellent point.

 

[GrayBlade]

Jees, I’d forgotten all about Blackpool being in the PL just 7 years ago. How the hell did they manage that?

 

[Brian Blessed]

Jees, I’d forgotten all about Blackpool being in the PL just 7 years ago. How the hell did they manage that?

It's not all that long since Bradford and Barnsley were in it. Well I say not long it's 20 odd years but it's not that long if you're older. Bradford stayed up first season as well. And let's not forget that a team as small as Wigan had 8 years up there recently and Bournemouth could well emulate that

 

[Houston_Blade]

Was talking to a Watford fan the other day and he considers Watford as a ‘mid table PL team’.

We then went onto discuss how it’s much better to be a yo-yo team between PL and Championship. He agrees that it’s wank being a mid table PL team.

I’d take a consistent relegation/promotion situation as long as we retain the Wilder mentality and play good football.

 

[bromtom]

Was talking to a Watford fan the other day and he considers Watford as a ‘mid table PL team’.

We then went onto discuss how it’s much better to be a yo-yo team between PL and Championship. He agrees that it’s wank being a mid table PL team.

I’d take a consistent relegation/promotion situation as long as we retain the Wilder mentality and play good football.

Cup run though for Watford this season, if they hadn't put the human embodiment of sentiment in the net and been awake enough to take their chances and not shit the bed at the back it could have difficult for Citeh.

 

[Eddiecolquhounsleg]

37 points. (No, not how many more than Wednesday we've got over the last 2 seasons ) but, based on the last ten PL seasons, is how many have seen a club escape relegation (37.6 actually).

View attachment 54707


Every game will be a 'cup final', but we've run Spurs, Man. U, Leicester, Southampton (who had Sadio Mané ) close quite recently - with a worse team and much worse managers. The figures in red above ^^^ show that you're never 'established' in the PL. Villa ended 25 continuous season with a paltry 17 points. If Fulham (13 seasons in the PL) and Stoke (10) can do it, so can we.

We've just got to enjoy it - no more Checkatrade Trophy, freezing nights playing Fleetwood, Crawley, Stevenage, Shrewsbury etc.

And if we go down first time? Loadsa money! And, if CW is around, a prompt return to the top flight.

It's the journey, not the destination.

I understand your figure but the way I look at this is that you need one point more than the 18th placed team to stay up. Doing that you get an average of 35.7 points, rather than your 37.6 which is even better

 

[GrayBlade]

It's not all that long since Bradford and Barnsley were in it. Well I say not long it's 20 odd years but it's not that long if you're older. Bradford stayed up first season as well. And let's not forget that a team as small as Wigan had 8 years up there recently and Bournemouth could well emulate that

Amazing really, it shows that comparative minnows can get up and even stay up if the club is run right and the heart is there.

I suppose it gives hope even to the likes of Wednesday that they might get back up there one day...daft as it sounds

 

[BushBlade]

Jees, I’d forgotten all about Blackpool being in the PL just 7 years ago. How the hell did they manage that?

Ollie decided he was tired of managing teams playing attritional, direct football and thought he’d go for a more open attacking style. They signed a fat Norwood from Scotland called Charlie Adam who just pinged passes around the pitch and they went for it.

 

[Billyblade]

Jees, I’d forgotten all about Blackpool being in the PL just 7 years ago. How the hell did they manage that?

Chris Basham

 

[Topplayersleave]

The Wolves team that "Ripped us apart" got beat at Bramall Lane when we were at full strength and firing on all cylinders. We just didn't have the back up to cover injuries and suspensions to our best players in that first season.
The trick is to get players that we can feel comfortable playing instead of Fleck, Norwood, Duffy, McGoldrick, Sharp, Stevens and Baldock instead of bringing in cover for them. Every player brought in should be a direct and immediate threat to the player playing in his position.

 

[bromtom]

The Wolves team that "Ripped us apart" got beat at Bramall Lane when we were at full strength and firing on all cylinders. We just didn't have the back up to cover injuries and suspensions to our best players in that first season.
The trick is to get players that we can feel comfortable playing instead of Fleck, Norwood, Duffy, McGoldrick, Sharp, Stevens and Baldock instead of bringing in cover for them. Every player brought in should be a direct and immediate threat to the player playing in his position.

They also played with 10 men for 75 minutes to be fair to them, but as the Brentford game shows, teams with spirit that know their system can make that work.

I agree with your points though, our second "cup team" needs a huge upgrade.

 

[grafikhaus]

Amazing really, it shows that comparative minnows can get up and even stay up if the club is run right and the heart is there.

I suppose it gives hope even to the likes of Wednesday that they might get back up there one day...daft as it sounds

Unfortunately, the PL is a totally different beast now compared to what it was back then - or even when we were last in it. There will be games next season (Liverpool, Man. City etc.) where it won't be a case of 'you never know' but 'can we avoid a humiliation?' When I watch MoTD even the 'average' PL teams like Palace, Watford, Burnley are super-fit.
I remember when we played Spurs on 28/1/15. I couldn't get my usual seat so ended up not far behind the SS dugouts and when you're 'up close and personal' to these top players, they really are supermen. (The 'practice goal' was just in front of me during the warm-up and I remember a young kid in a track suit pinging balls in with a look on his face that said 'What the fuck am I doing here?' Che Adams). That game summed up what next season will be like - most of our players were at the very top of their game but, one moments' lapse in concentration (and a super-strike by Eriksen) and you get done.

But whatever happens in the coming season, we've done wonders in the last three seasons and deserve our place at the top table.

 

[GrayBlade]

Unfortunately, the PL is a totally different beast now compared to what it was back then - or even when we were last in it. There will be games next season (Liverpool, Man. City etc.) where it won't be a case of 'you never know' but 'can we avoid a humiliation?' When I watch MoTD even the 'average' PL teams like Palace, Watford, Burnley are super-fit.
I remember when we played Spurs on 28/1/15. I couldn't get my usual seat so ended up not far behind the SS dugouts and when you're 'up close and personal' to these top players, they really are supermen. (The 'practice goal' was just in front of me during the warm-up and I remember a young kid in a track suit pinging balls in with a look on his face that said 'What the fuck am I doing here?' Che Adams). That game summed up what next season will be like - most of our players were at the very top of their game but, one moments' lapse in concentration (and a super-strike by Eriksen) and you get done.

But whatever happens in the coming season, we've done wonders in the last three seasons and deserve our place at the top table.

Totally agree mate, I think we’ve got to up our game throughout our entire set up if we are to survive, not just players on the pitch, but add the likes of Bournmouth and Southampton to the teams that you mentioned and it shows that it is possible for any club to survive and prosper in the Premier League. They're probably all well-run top down though, the owners and board of directors must surely play a massive part part in their ongoing success as well as the team management and not just financially. Unfortunately the aforementioned is our Achilles heel right now and until they up they’re game as well and the ownership is sorted I think that Wilder is going to have top weight on.

 

[Dkc]

Amazing that you can pretty much predict the top six teams in a 20 team division will be.

I doubt anyone will make the top six apart from the two Manc clubs, the two North London clubs, Liverpool and Chelsea. None of the other English leagues are like this. You must watch your team enter a competition that you aren't going to win, where finishing 8th would be a good result.

The relegation battle will be more interesting. Outside the top six I think anyone could go down (perhaps Everton and Wolves excepted). All it takes is a few injuries, or a bad start and a managerial sacking.

PS it's fare not fair!

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Amazing that you can pretty much predict the top six teams in a 20 team division will be.

You can't though.

In the past ten seasons Leicester, Southampton, Newcastle and Aston Villa have all finished in the top six.

 

[Dkc]

You can't though.

In the past ten seasons Leicester, Southampton, Newcastle and Aston Villa have all finished in the top six.

Not saying it's set in stone, but I doubt you'd get better odds at the bookies than evens. What would the odds be on corrrectly predicting the top six in an evenly-matched division

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

Amazing that you can pretty much predict the top six teams in a 20 team division will be.

I doubt anyone will make the top six apart from the two Manc clubs, the two North London clubs, Liverpool and Chelsea. None of the other English leagues are like this. You must watch your team enter a competition that you aren't going to win, where finishing 8th would be a good result.

The relegation battle will be more interesting. Outside the top six I think anyone could go down (perhaps Everton and Wolves excepted). All it takes is a few injuries, or a bad start and a managerial sacking.

PS it's fare not fair!

No other league in europe is like this.

The beauty of the prem

 

[Dkc]

No other league in europe is like this.

The beauty of the prem

"Beauty" is one way of putting it. "Unfairness" is another.

Saying that, just a few clubs dominate in numerous other countries.