James Beattie & Martyn Waghorn: The Cost of Strikers

[Chali 2na]

Much has been made about the apparent transfer fee of Martyn Waghorn, with some forum members claiming he's not worth it. I decided to do some digging:

The first thing I did was work out the going rate for an elite* championship striker. Over the past 3 seasons, on average, this has been £11.29m

The second thing I did, was compare that figure with the fee we used to secure our own 'elite championship striker' - £4m for James Beattie in 2007.

Finally, I used those figures to find the factor that football transfer inflation has risen by since 2008 for elite championship strikers. Applying this figure (2.82) to Martyn Waghorn, we can extrapolate that in 2007, he would have cost us £1.77m**

That figure of £1.77m may not mean much on it's own, but for comparison; it's less than the £2m Charlton paid to Sunderland to acquire Andy Gray that same year.

Interestingly, that season saw Freddy Eastwood (At the time, a prolific L1 striker, unproven in the Championship) move for £2m, using that fee as a barometer, and applying the rate of inflation (2.82) we could assume that in today's money, he'd be worth £4.5m - This would imply that any club purchasing Jack Marriot shouldn't spend too much beyond that.

In conclusion, when compared to transfer fees a decade ago, £5m for Waghorn seems like relatively good business IMO.


Note: this information should be taken with a pinch of salt: the figures I used were taken from transfermarkt and the method I used to determine the inflation figure was a little crude.

*I have defined this as a striker bought with the assumption of 'guaranteed' goals (Kodija, Afobe, McCormack, Rhodes )
**Assuming that the fee we pay for Waghorn will be £5m.

 

[Lil red rooster]

at a loose end today!

 

[Sean Thornton]

Much has been made about the apparent transfer fee of Martyn Waghorn, with some forum members claiming he's not worth it. I decided to do some digging:

The first thing I did was work out the going rate for an elite* championship striker. Over the past 3 seasons, on average, this has been £11.29m

The second thing I did, was compare that figure with the fee we used to secure our own 'elite championship striker' - £4m for James Beattie in 2007.

Finally, I used those figures to find the factor that football transfer inflation has risen by since 2008 for elite championship strikers. Applying this figure (2.82) to Martyn Waghorn, we can extrapolate that in 2007, he would have cost us £1.77m**

That figure of £1.77m may not mean much on it's own, but for comparison; it's less than the £2m Charlton paid to Sunderland to acquire Andy Gray that same year.

Interestingly, that season saw Freddy Eastwood (At the time, a prolific L1 striker, unproven in the Championship) move for £2m, using that fee as a barometer, and applying the rate of inflation (2.82) we could assume that in today's money, he'd be worth £4.5m - This would imply that any club purchasing Jack Marriot shouldn't spend too much beyond that.

In conclusion, when compared to transfer fees a decade ago, £5m for Waghorn seems like relatively good business IMO.


Note: this information should be taken with a pinch of salt: the figures I used were taken from transfermarkt and the method I used to determine the inflation figure was a little crude.

*I have defined this as a striker bought with the assumption of 'guaranteed' goals (Kodija, Afobe, McCormack, Rhodes )
**Assuming that the fee we pay for Waghorn will be £5m.

Do you have the figures for Conor Sammon?

 

[Chali 2na]

Do you have the figures for Conor Sammon?

Yes, whatever we paid for him didn't represent good value for money

 

[HibbyBlade]

The prices put on players heads in this league is nuts sometimes. For that kind of scratch (£5m - £10) I'd be looking at goal scorers from top leagues in other countries where players are priced a bit more sensibly. We'd probably end up with two decent players for the same price shopping in The Erdivisie.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Surely the 'value' is only known after the event.

 

[Chali 2na]

We'd probably end up with two decent players for the same price shopping in The Erdivisie.

Michael Higdon was our last Erdivisie purchase if I remember correctly.

 

[Chali 2na]

Surely the 'value' is only known after the event.

I didn't use the word 'value' once in the OP.

 

[grafikhaus]

Much has been made etc. etc.

Good work, Chali but - when the majority of transfers are 'undisclosed' , we don't know about the full package (wages etc.) it's hard to build up a realistic figure. Also, don't underestimate how the new player will 'fit' into the new team. Managers like Mourinho have wasted fortunes with a 'scatter-gun' approach to buying players and he may be about to repeat it with Maguire (£65m FFS!)

On the other hand, just a year ago Burnley paid Leeds £15m for Chris Wood and I knew it have every chance of being an excellent buy. 41 goals in 83 games for Leeds in the Championship and 10 golas in 24 games for Burnley in the PL.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

I didn't use the word 'value' once in the OP.

I know you didn't. You're stating this is potentially 'good business', I'm just pointing out that it's all irrelevant until we see what 'value for money' they bring to the table. Beattie was by far and away our biggest signing and on massive wages but the team didn't succeed, HMS Shipperley cost relatively bugger all but was a big factor in our promotion and therefore arguably 'better business'. At the end of the day, fees are driven by what people are prepared to pay, you can't really compare fee / fee from one transfer window to the next these days, and we only know whether it was good business after the event.

 

[Chali 2na]

Good work, Chali but - when the majority of transfers are 'undisclosed' , we don't know about the full package (wages etc.) it's hard to build up a realistic figure. Also, don't underestimate how the new player will 'fit' into the new team. Managers like Mourinho have wasted fortunes with a 'scatter-gun' approach to buying players and he may be about to repeat it with Maguire (£65m FFS!)

On the other hand, just a year ago Burnley paid Leeds £15m for Chris Wood and I knew it have every chance of being an excellent buy. 41 goals in 83 games for Leeds in the Championship and 10 golas in 24 games for Burnley in the PL.

Yeah, I'll be the first to admit that it's hardly accurate, and that wages don't factor, but I hope it's a decent reference for people, despite it being quite rough.

Your comment about Chris Wood is interesting: unlike yourself, I thought that it was a bid out of desperation, and that Burnley had paid over the odds, but the stats would suggest I was wrong!

 

[HibbyBlade]

Michael Higdon was our last Erdivisie purchase if I remember correctly.

I very much doubt he cost that much.

 

[Chali 2na]

I know you didn't. You're stating this is potentially 'good business', I'm just pointing out that it's all irrelevant until we see what 'value for money' they bring to the table. Beattie was by far and away our biggest signing and on massive wages but the team didn't succeed, HMS Shipperley cost relatively bugger all but was a big factor in our promotion and therefore arguably 'better business'. At the end of the day, fees are driven by what people are prepared to pay, you can't really compare fee / fee from one transfer window to the next these days, and we only know whether it was good business after the event.

I don't think it's particularly ground-breaking to state that "we only know whether it was good business after the event." It's obvious.

And I'm not "stating it is good business" either: I said "seems like relatively good business IMO" - there's a huge difference.

 

[Chali 2na]

I very much doubt he cost that much.

Me too.

The point I was making was about the talent level (or lack of) in the Dutch leagues.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

I don't think it's particularly ground-breaking to state that "we only know whether it was good business after the event." It's obvious.

And I'm not "stating it is good business" either: I said "seems like relatively good business IMO" - there's a huge difference.

Fair enough, you've done some research and come to the conclusion that it seems like it might be relatively good business

 

[Chali 2na]

Fair enough, you've done some research and come to the conclusion that it seems like it might be relatively good business

Correct.

People are welcome to come to their own conclusions too, hence why I started the thread.

 

[grafikhaus]

Your comment about Chris Wood is interesting: unlike yourself, I thought that it was a bid out of desperation, and that Burnley had paid over the odds, but the stats would suggest I was wrong!

When the pupil is ready, the master appears.

 

[HibbyBlade]

Me too.

The point I was making was about the talent level (or lack of) in the Dutch leagues.

It doesn't really work that way though does it? Higdon came from a lower end side in that division on the cheap. I'm saying that kind of money could be better invested getting a player from AZ, Feyenoord, PSV etc...

 

[Chali 2na]

It doesn't really work that way though does it? Higdon came from a lower end side in that division on the cheap. I'm saying that kind of money could be better invested getting a player from AZ, Feyenoord, PSV etc...

Yeah, I was being a little unfair citing Higdon, more of a joke really.

I would say though that the standard of the Dutch leagues has fallen off a cliff in the last few years: I can't think of many players from Holland (Dutch or otherwise) that have made much of an impact in England.