Worst manager in the history of SUFC

[Selly]

More sample size is alwsys good. 13 games is not enough to build a trend line. As I am sure Darren will agree, randomness, luck and other externalities could be at force here and Weir needs at least another 6 or 7 games to see if any of those change ........ not that they are forced to change over a season .....

Statiticians would tell you that:

• A football season is not a large enough sample to eliminate random chance
• Wins and losses tend to bunch together

Whats clear for me is that the only win we had this season was at a point when Weir had had the least amount of time/resources to influence the team/squad. I, for one, would not be prepared to risk the fact that it isn`t randomness, luck and other externalities that are causing our current malaise.

I don`t want to see us in Div 4 next year, but under Weir, thats where we are heading...

 

[JJ Sefton]

More sample size is alwsys good. 13 games is not enough to build a trend line. As I am sure Darren will agree, randomness, luck and other externalities could be at force here and Weir needs at least another 6 or 7 games to see if any of those change ........ not that they are forced to change over a season .....

More sample size isn't always good. We could, for example, leave Weir in charge for the rest of his life and then our sample size would include every bit of data possible. But it would also be a rather pointless exercise. The whole point of probability is to divine the future without having to live it. If we live through it we don't need to bother with calculating the probability of it.

 

[Ollessendro]

Thing is, the only manager with a comparably awful records was Adams and whilst he did get better (record after the first 13 P11 W4 D1 L6 pts 13), it wasn't enough to save us from relegation.

If Weir did an Adams post first 13 games and we averaged 1.2 points a game from hereon we would end up with 48 points and almost certain relegation.

In other words even improvement to mid table form is unlikely to save us from relegation and mid table form seems a long way off at the moment.

In 11 of the last 30 seasons 48 would have been enough to stay up. Possibly in another 3 or 4 of those, depending on goal difference. See my comment on other thread. The 3rd division looks pretty crap this year and early evidence suggests a low points tally for staying up. However only a small amount of confidence can be put on that as there have not been enough games played.

More sample size isn't always good. We could, for example, leave Weir in charge for the rest of his life and then our sample size would include every bit of data possible. But it would also be a rather pointless exercise. The whole point of probability is to divine the future without having to live it. If we live through it we don't need to bother with calculating the probability of it.

Whilst I agree with some of that, 10 games is not enough to accurately predict the rest of the season.

 

[Darren]

More sample size isn't always good. We could, for example, leave Weir in charge for the rest of his life and then our sample size would include every bit of data possible. But it would also be a rather pointless exercise. The whole point of probability is to divine the future without having to live it. If we live through it we don't need to bother with calculating the probability of it.

As with everything it's pros and cons.

Pro of getting rid of him is that it is 99% certain any other manager would do better and there is no sign at the moment that anything will improve

Con is that it is possible things may get better and as the season is now a write off as far as promotion is concerned and as we still do have enough time to avoid relegation, he should be given more time AND it will be very expensive to sack him.

With every crap result, we have less time to avoid relegation and the scales tip more towards the pro side. One would hope the Board have a point of the season in mind when they think "we can't leave it much longer or relegation will be more likely than not, whever the manager is". At that point, he should go.

I would give him until the Port Vale game and ask for at least 4 points from the next two. Otherwise he goes.