With and Without Big Harry Souttar

[ucandomagic]

In my XG thread vas borbokis asked a great question which I felt needed answering on a separate thread as it is so significant.

Thanks for the all the analysis Ucando..
I'm left wondering whether our outperformance versus xga has fallen significantly since boxing day with the loss of Soutter? -And if that means we could expect a tail off in points gathering (ppg)?
Let's hope not!

This is a great point vas borbokis. If you look at the graph in my XG thread you can see the gap between XGA and actual goals against widening right up to the Burnley game on Boxing Day, after which they go almost parallel.

So I looked back through my posts to my XG post after the Cardiff game on December 21st - the game before Burnley when Big Harry was injured.

After the Cardiff game we had played 22 games, we had conceded 11 goals and our aggregate XGA was 20.5.
After the Middlesbrough game this week we have played 32 games, we have conceded 23 goals with an aggregate XGA of 33.2.

So through the Cardiff game we were conceding 0.5 goals per game.
From Burnley onwards we have conceded 12 goals in 10 games - 1.2 actual goals per game!

XGA through the Cardiff game is an average 20.5/22 = 0.93 probable goals per game.
XGA in the 10 games since Cardiff is an average (33.2-20.5)/10 = 1.27 probable goals per game.

The conclusion is clear:-

Since Harry's injury we have increased the probable goals against by 36% (1.27-093)/0.93
Since Harry's injury we have increased the actual goals conceded by 140% (1.2-0.5)/0.5

So we have increased the number of chances against and increased the actual goals conceded by even more.
So we are conceding more chances and each chance is more likely to be successful.

The amazing thing is that we are still second just 2 points behind Weeds.

The conclusion is that without Harry's injury we would probably have 7 more points and be absolutely dominating this league.
Even with a 2 point deduction we would be 5 points clear at the top, above a brilliant Leeds that everybody is drooling over.

With Harry this was a team that would have survived in the Prem -
- remember that with a great defence we conceded just 1 goal per game in that 2019/20 season with a GD of zero - upper mid table form.

Let's Go Up
Let's buy a fit Harry back.
Let's take the Prem by storm!!

 

[JayGreen17]

XG means fuck all, Mboro would be top if we were takk
G any notice of that shit

 

[JayGreen17]

Your Ave stats are much more a better reflection

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

Wow!

Best post ever, and with no graphs GraphMan!

Let’s hope Rob Holding tightens us up a bit at the back, and we can get back towards only conceding a goal every other game.

I think we’re going up, but it would be nice to think we could stroll it, like we were before Harry got the metaphorical arrow in his Achilles!

UTB & FTP!

 

[Edgar Allan Poo]

Didn't that whiny Bonio chap sing something similar?

 

[3Cheers4Ramirez]

Scoring more goals is now our only solution

 

[wavy-blade]

What a player he was , in such a short period of time he became one of the best defenders we have had reight player, just hope he can come back as good . The question is why would anyone sell him tho if he does ? How the hell he couldn’t get in the Leicester team is a mystery, there CB must be awesome !!

 

[Cappy]

Great work again. The eye definitely says we’ve worsened defensively but it’s good, in a way, to see some analytics that back it up

Edit: the next bit isn’t aimed at anyone in particular to answer, just me pondering with the clouds….

I tend to dismiss XG and XGA stats, as well as some others, based really upon lazy comparisons with what I feel I saw. Also, when we look at our actuals compared to expected, they’re different. So how much can you read into it as a true indicator of “they will regress/improve to the norm”, as people often say? Burnley is another good example, and there are many

Has anyone who does like these indicative stats ever looked at how good they are at predicting future outcomes? For example, by the end of the season, do teams indeed tend to hit their XG overall? Are there outliers? For example do teams near the top and bottom often exceed/fall short of their XG/XGA and it’s the majority away from those regions of the table that hit it and create an over picture of it being accurate?

I also wonder, how often are the calculations for XG etc modified? Before the start of the season, or constantly as new data becomes available, especially when there are players/teams who play in new ways?

Are they very generic calculations or do they, for XGA as an example, take into consideration the overall quality of individual played in a defence? Cooper being in goal for a shot surely reduces the XGA compared to if it was me in goal, or even more if it was Grbic. Does it consider that?

Not expecting any answers to the above, I’m just brain-dumping some of the questions/doubts I’ve always had over XG etc, but I admit ignorance as I’ve never really made an effort to deep dive it. In my work world I am always looking for data that can help with decision making and forward projection, and when that data is about people, their skills and their behaviours, it is very difficult to group them together, especially in a high performance environment

One more point, and again a technique common in high performance work environments, if you have indeed have ever deep dived to prove XG etc works, have you ever deep dived to see if you can prove it doesn’t for certain situations/overall? To challenge your belief

Anyway, shower then off to Luton. UTB and thanks as always ucandomagic. You helped get the brain going on a Sat morning

 

[3Cheers4Ramirez]

The best way to gauge the accuracy of XG is probably just to look at it in every one of our games over time and compare it to what you see. It's generally a reasonable indicator

The factoring in of individual quality is possibly where it can improve most. An 80% chance for one player might be 30% for another. That = a 0.5 difference for the team over the game, which is a lot

 

[Slug]

In my XG thread vas borbokis asked a great question which I felt needed answering on a separate thread as it is so significant.



This is a great point vas borbokis. If you look at the graph in my XG thread you can see the gap between XGA and actual goals against widening right up to the Burnley game on Boxing Day, after which they go almost parallel.

So I looked back through my posts to my XG post after the Cardiff game on December 21st - the game before Burnley when Big Harry was injured.

After the Cardiff game we had played 22 games, we had conceded 11 goals and our aggregate XGA was 20.5.
After the Middlesbrough game this week we have played 32 games, we have conceded 23 goals with an aggregate XGA of 33.2.

So through the Cardiff game we were conceding 0.5 goals per game.
From Burnley onwards we have conceded 12 goals in 10 games - 1.2 actual goals per game!

XGA through the Cardiff game is an average 20.5/22 = 0.93 probable goals per game.
XGA in the 10 games since Cardiff is an average (33.2-20.5)/10 = 1.27 probable goals per game.

The conclusion is clear:-

Since Harry's injury we have increased the probable goals against by 36% (1.27-093)/0.93
Since Harry's injury we have increased the actual goals conceded by 140% (1.2-0.5)/0.5

So we have increased the number of chances against and increased the actual goals conceded by even more.
So we are conceding more chances and each chance is more likely to be successful.

The amazing thing is that we are still second just 2 points behind Weeds.

The conclusion is that without Harry's injury we would probably have 7 more points and be absolutely dominating this league.
Even with a 2 point deduction we would be 5 points clear at the top, above a brilliant Leeds that everybody is drooling over.

With Harry this was a team that would have survived in the Prem -
- remember that with a great defence we conceded just 1 goal per game in that 2019/20 season with a GD of zero - upper mid table form.

Let's Go Up
Let's buy a fit Harry back.
Let's take the Prem by storm!!

Great read on the XGA stats but I think your conclusion that we would have had 7 more points is off. We have only dropped 8 points in the 9 games since Souttar was injured and we are somehow, incredibly, averaging more points per game since (19 points in 9 games = 2.11 points, pre Souttar injury we had 48 points in 23 games = 2.08 points).

 

[HD8 Blades]

“With and Without Big Harry Souttar” a lesser known U2 track​

 

[Keen Blade]

Proof positive that what a lot of the fans were saying about the significance of losing Souttar ... was correct.

Some on here , like Silent Blade , really dislike posters who state their opinions about what's needed , especially if it might conflict with what CW does.

They see it as somehow disloyal , or arrogant , to question the professional manager , when obviously the poster is just an observer.
Some of these 'critics of fellow posters' never express their own opinions on the issue in question , leading one to wonder whether they have none , in which case their relationship with the club would appear to be quite sterile.

Imo , as a loyal fan of over 50 years , paying my hard-earned to the club , it is not overly "entitled" (that easy jibe) to have opinions , both positive & negative , about any aspect of the club one loves.

CW mentioned , in his pre-match presser for Luton , that they had spent £10m on a CB.
Which caused me to reflect on how we've just spent £10m on a striker who , thus far , hasn't made much of an impact on our Xg or actual goals.
Neither has he contributed much in other ways.
He may improve , who knows.

But I can't help thinking that the bigger hole in our squad was the one left by Souttar. And the fact that we have only one CB contracted beyond May weighs heavy , particularly when Anel is twice the player with a "calm & dominant leader" by his side , which Robbo really isn't.

So , politely questioning our approach to filling the Souttar hole in the January window does appear to have been justified by both our XgA & goals conceded.
And it's not disloyal or arrogant to have expressed an opinion on it.
Nor is it self-flattering to recall it now.

For all I know , Holding might turn out to be another JoC , but I can only speak if what I see - and I haven't seen him yet - though I'm sure most of us would ideally have liked our 'new Souttar' playing in early January.

The other day , some posters took issue with me , post-match , in the Boro thread , when I mentioned that CW seemed to have made the exact changes of personnel & tactics which many fans , including me , were seeking after the crap performance v Pompey.

Well , if you watched both games , I think those fans made good points.

I sincerely hope not to have upset anyone in passing these comments about our CB position today.

We are all fans , we love the club , we wish it success , we have our opinions and that's why we come on the forum to express them.

At the same time , we are all different people , and should be tolerant of others with whom we disagree or whose natural level of exuberance (when expressing an opinion) differs from our own.

Anyway , January's gone and I hope :

Cannon gets as many goals as Sharp
Holding becomes our rock at the back
And we play today like v Boro.

UTB , U the Xg and D the XgA

 

[Keen Blade]

Didn't that whiny Bonio chap sing something similar?

Bonio ? My dog used to eat that

He couldn't sing , though he did howl as a puppy when he wanted a walk or a game.

 

[Keen Blade]

Scoring more goals is now our only solution

Holding might be better than Robbo ?

 

[3Cheers4Ramirez]

Holding might be better than Robbo ?

..... when he gets up to speed with about 4 games left

 

[Keen Blade]

Great work again. The eye definitely says we’ve worsened defensively but it’s good, in a way, to see some analytics that back it up

Edit: the next bit isn’t aimed at anyone in particular to answer, just me pondering with the clouds….

I tend to dismiss XG and XGA stats, as well as some others, based really upon lazy comparisons with what I feel I saw. Also, when we look at our actuals compared to expected, they’re different. So how much can you read into it as a true indicator of “they will regress/improve to the norm”, as people often say? Burnley is another good example, and there are many

Has anyone who does like these indicative stats ever looked at how good they are at predicting future outcomes? For example, by the end of the season, do teams indeed tend to hit their XG overall? Are there outliers? For example do teams near the top and bottom often exceed/fall short of their XG/XGA and it’s the majority away from those regions of the table that hit it and create an over picture of it being accurate?

I also wonder, how often are the calculations for XG etc modified? Before the start of the season, or constantly as new data becomes available, especially when there are players/teams who play in new ways?

Are they very generic calculations or do they, for XGA as an example, take into consideration the overall quality of individual played in a defence? Cooper being in goal for a shot surely reduces the XGA compared to if it was me in goal, or even more if it was Grbic. Does it consider that?

Not expecting any answers to the above, I’m just brain-dumping some of the questions/doubts I’ve always had over XG etc, but I admit ignorance as I’ve never really made an effort to deep dive it. In my work world I am always looking for data that can help with decision making and forward projection, and when that data is about people, their skills and their behaviours, it is very difficult to group them together, especially in a high performance environment

One more point, and again a technique common in high performance work environments, if you have indeed have ever deep dived to prove XG etc works, have you ever deep dived to see if you can prove it doesn’t for certain situations/overall? To challenge your belief

Anyway, shower then off to Luton. UTB and thanks as always ucandomagic. You helped get the brain going on a Sat morning

You've got us all intrigued by your high performance working world

I'm going for Sales Director
or maybe
F1 Team Manager

Ever listen to 'What's My Line' on the radio years ago ?

 

[Keen Blade]

..... when he gets up to speed with about 4 games left

Careful now , or you'll have the 'Blind Loyalty' mob on your case

 

[10-0 win]

In context missing an inform Souza added to XpgAgainst.

 

[Cappy]

You've got us all intrigued by your high performance working world

I'm going for Sales Director
or maybe
F1 Team Manager

Ever listen to 'What's My Line' on the radio years ago ?

Business transformation “consultant”

Don’t really do consulting in the usual sense though. More of a programme/project manager in reality, which is my background. I basically moved up from IT project management through to programme managing business transformations.

For those that don’t office jobs, when you think of the ultimate admin-based-sat-at-a-computer and attending meetings all day dull jobs, think of me. I love it, but when I tell my lad what I do, who wants to be a sports Physio for an elite sports team, he glosses over

My main quality is the leading people through change aspect, which got me where I am, drinking sparkling water all day and being dull

 

[Carlton Blade]

In my XG thread vas borbokis asked a great question which I felt needed answering on a separate thread as it is so significant.



This is a great point vas borbokis. If you look at the graph in my XG thread you can see the gap between XGA and actual goals against widening right up to the Burnley game on Boxing Day, after which they go almost parallel.

So I looked back through my posts to my XG post after the Cardiff game on December 21st - the game before Burnley when Big Harry was injured.

After the Cardiff game we had played 22 games, we had conceded 11 goals and our aggregate XGA was 20.5.
After the Middlesbrough game this week we have played 32 games, we have conceded 23 goals with an aggregate XGA of 33.2.

So through the Cardiff game we were conceding 0.5 goals per game.
From Burnley onwards we have conceded 12 goals in 10 games - 1.2 actual goals per game!

XGA through the Cardiff game is an average 20.5/22 = 0.93 probable goals per game.
XGA in the 10 games since Cardiff is an average (33.2-20.5)/10 = 1.27 probable goals per game.

The conclusion is clear:-

Since Harry's injury we have increased the probable goals against by 36% (1.27-093)/0.93
Since Harry's injury we have increased the actual goals conceded by 140% (1.2-0.5)/0.5

So we have increased the number of chances against and increased the actual goals conceded by even more.
So we are conceding more chances and each chance is more likely to be successful.

The amazing thing is that we are still second just 2 points behind Weeds.

The conclusion is that without Harry's injury we would probably have 7 more points and be absolutely dominating this league.
Even with a 2 point deduction we would be 5 points clear at the top, above a brilliant Leeds that everybody is drooling over.

With Harry this was a team that would have survived in the Prem -
- remember that with a great defence we conceded just 1 goal per game in that 2019/20 season with a GD of zero - upper mid table form.

Let's Go Up
Let's buy a fit Harry back.
Let's take the Prem by storm!!

What was the average xG for of the teams played in the 2 distinct sections?

 

[Kozzy_is_my_Dad]

One things for sure, what a spine Cooper, Souttar, Souza was.

Barring freak games like Coventry (Anel's red card), I was genuinely comfortable that we were unlikely to concede most weeks. Now, I assume we need to score at least two to win, most weeks.

Harry is irreplaceable in a panicked window - in terms of his presence, his physical size, his calmness and how his telescopic legs appeared to recover tackles that others couldn't. It's the obvious weakness in our side now and pardon the pun, let's hope it won't be our Achilles heel.

 

[DronnieBlade]

A complete revelation was Soutter.

Massive loss earlier in the season.

I think he could be even better in the middle of a 3 !!

UTB

 

[Keen Blade]

Great read on the XGA stats but I think your conclusion that we would have had 7 more points is off. We have only dropped 8 points in the 9 games since Souttar was injured and we are somehow, incredibly, averaging more points per game since (19 points in 9 games = 2.11 points, pre Souttar injury we had 48 points in 23 games = 2.08 points).

Yes , this is incredible -

You might say that since Boxing Day , until the Boro match , we have relied on a mixture of :
slightly easier fixtures
luck (Pompey should have beaten us)
sheer guts & determination

It's not been easy with the absences but we've ground our the wins.

It looked fabulous v Boro and let's hope we can get into a good groove now.

 

[KeyffSmyff]

Cappy I really enjoy change management. Especially as schools are shite at it. Evaluation and rephrasing the problem are virtually non existent in schools I have worked at. I also drink sparkling water, perhaps there is something in it.

 

[KeyffSmyff]

Would he be the same if we bought him? Brayford didn't match his loan form, but I hope we try to get him whichever league we are in.

 

[Keen Blade]

Business transformation “consultant”

Don’t really do consulting in the usual sense though. More of a programme/project manager in reality, which is my background. I basically moved up from IT project management through to programme managing business transformations.

For those that don’t office jobs, when you think of the ultimate admin-based-sat-at-a-computer and attending meetings all day dull jobs, think of me. I love it, but when I tell my lad what I do, who wants to be a sports Physio for an elite sports team, he glosses over

My main quality is the leading people through change aspect, which got me where I am, drinking sparkling water all day and being dull

I bet you're not dull on the terraces after a week doing that !
I bet you really let rip and give em both barrels as fast as you can reload
You're very near the pitch at Luton so be careful not to get arrested or ejected
And since I can't watch it today , let us know what a £10m CB looks like ...

 

[jaybee]

Are they very generic calculations or do they, for XGA as an example, take into consideration the overall quality of individual played in a defence? Cooper being in goal for a shot surely reduces the XGA compared to if it was me in goal, or even more if it was Grbic. Does it consider that?

As I understand it they’re generic based on historical shot data across a bunch of matches. There’s no calibration/adjustment for the players involved.

In theory a chance with an XGA of 0.5 won’t result in a goal 50% of the time if all the players involved are a mathematically average player

I think there are some more complicated models that try to take in to account player quality but they use different metrics like PSxG for keepers

 

[Snowflake]

What a player he was , in such a short period of time he became one of the best defenders we have had reight player, just hope he can come back as good . The question is why would anyone sell him tho if he does ? How the hell he couldn’t get in the Leicester team is a mystery, there CB must be awesome !!

He was a little slow to turn so would be vulnerable to the speed of play and players in the PL. In the Championship he was magnificent.Should Leicester get relegated then I guess they would want to keep him.

 

[YES Blade]

In my XG thread vas borbokis asked a great question which I felt needed answering on a separate thread as it is so significant.



This is a great point vas borbokis. If you look at the graph in my XG thread you can see the gap between XGA and actual goals against widening right up to the Burnley game on Boxing Day, after which they go almost parallel.

So I looked back through my posts to my XG post after the Cardiff game on December 21st - the game before Burnley when Big Harry was injured.

After the Cardiff game we had played 22 games, we had conceded 11 goals and our aggregate XGA was 20.5.
After the Middlesbrough game this week we have played 32 games, we have conceded 23 goals with an aggregate XGA of 33.2.

So through the Cardiff game we were conceding 0.5 goals per game.
From Burnley onwards we have conceded 12 goals in 10 games - 1.2 actual goals per game!

XGA through the Cardiff game is an average 20.5/22 = 0.93 probable goals per game.
XGA in the 10 games since Cardiff is an average (33.2-20.5)/10 = 1.27 probable goals per game.

The conclusion is clear:-

Since Harry's injury we have increased the probable goals against by 36% (1.27-093)/0.93
Since Harry's injury we have increased the actual goals conceded by 140% (1.2-0.5)/0.5

So we have increased the number of chances against and increased the actual goals conceded by even more.
So we are conceding more chances and each chance is more likely to be successful.

The amazing thing is that we are still second just 2 points behind Weeds.

The conclusion is that without Harry's injury we would probably have 7 more points and be absolutely dominating this league.
Even with a 2 point deduction we would be 5 points clear at the top, above a brilliant Leeds that everybody is drooling over.

With Harry this was a team that would have survived in the Prem -
- remember that with a great defence we conceded just 1 goal per game in that 2019/20 season with a GD of zero - upper mid table form.

Let's Go Up
Let's buy a fit Harry back.
Let's take the Prem by storm!!

Just to clarify, are you including the Burnley match as with or without Souttar?

He was on the pitch when Burnley scored both goals so that match needs to be included in the with Souttar stats.

 

[CopenhagenBlade]

The only thing about stats like these, and I love reading them, is you’re never comparing like for like. For example we might have had an easier run of games with Souttar. We might have played teams out of form then who are now in form. We have also struggled with injuries and a steady team. Our midfield has certainly been more open and letting more chances go by. Souttar wouldn’t have stopped that.