Watford's 3 chances

[Woodwardfan]

Flores said of his players ' With these chances the players could make better decisions if they felt more security, better final ball, better shots'

Equally applies to our new men. Give 'em time!

 

[Woodwardfan]

Really? We had 0.4 xG in the whole game. Some people hugely overestimate how good chances actually are

5/10 not a huge overestimate then - 4/10 it is though

 

[bypassblade]

TBH I know we've conceded daft goals though our own making but, I'm happy with 7 conceded in 8 games when you see such as Watford -16, Narwich -11, Newcastle -9 we're currently 0 so all in all not bad. I'm not saying we won't concede but these guys are doing it with aplomb, plus folk forget when you're at the bottom end it's a bark to get away from. In addition Watford were coming back from a 8-0 thrashing and we knew they'd be wounded, all in all good point yesterday but I do agree we need to create more, I'd be more worried if I was an Everton fan.

 

['Doc' Pace my hero]

That and the mirroring of formation. Our usual overloads barely happened.

Even though they were basically rubbish and negative, I think their tactics were justified on the balance of chance creation.

If Dawson had scored the late goal,as he should have done,it was the perfect away performance by Watford !!

 

[jt64]

What does 0.4x G mean --half a chance, same as my 5/10?

It means that on average we would score 0.4 goals over the whole game, NOT just the Robinson chance. If you think Robinson should score that chance half the time, have a guess what the xG for the Andre Gray chance was

Spoiler

0.61

 

[Rochdaleblade]

I thought the Welbeck chance was similar to McGoldricks' against Southampton. He waited for the goalie to make a decision. When the keeper didn't go down or run out, he just seemed to panic and put the laces through it. Surely the best option would be to square it to the unmarked player beside him.

 

[BushBlade]

I thought the Welbeck chance was similar to McGoldricks' against Southampton. He waited for the goalie to make a decision. When the keeper didn't go down or run out, he just seemed to panic and put the laces through it. Surely the best option would be to square it to the unmarked player beside him.

I’m a bit old school but I always thought you had to do a ‘trick’; shape to shoot but then chip it as the keeper dives or drop a shoulder so he shifts his weight onto the wrong foot, that kind of thing.

If I’d asked the question on Friday ‘would you rather have Gray and Welbeck or McB and Robbo I think quite a few would have gone for the former. But, like all our opponents, we made them look a bit shit. Unfortunately Watford set up to make our strikers look shit and succeeded in that. But it was to their detriment more than ours as they really needed the three points.

 

[GrayBlade]

We‘ve looked pretty comfortable defensively most of the time in our games to date and the facts are that only Liverpool have conceded less goals than us, and yet at some stage in every game there have been basic errors that cost us or like yesterday almost cost us. Some could simply be down to higher concentration levels, but others have been physical slips like Egan’s yesterday. I said at the Liverpool game some players should put longer studs in at half time, we do seen to be slipping more.

If I had to call it, I’d say it’s because every player is giving so much more physically and mentally this season mistakes are bound to happen as they adjust. Of course some of them may never quite adjust to PL levels and they’re the ones who will fall by the wayside, but that being the case I think It gives even more credit to Wilder and his staff that we’ve only conceded 7 goals in the first 8 games and we’re just discussing ifs and buts.

 

[RegBlade]

Looking at the 3rd chance then again, it’s not a particularly high or slow ball in – tough to judge, but I think this it would have been very risky for Henderson to try and claim it.

That would have been a bit of a no mans land area for Hendo that. He might have been fortunate enough to come gather it, but odds are he would have been caught in the middle with Dawson beating him to it. And being blamed for another goal.

 

[Davalon]

Do you think it might be partly down to Watford keeping so many players behind the ball? I didn’t go but from what I’ve seen there didn’t look a lot of space in and around the box.

Undoubtedly a factor but as well as that being part of the game we have to overcome, we've had problems in other games.

Football just like rugby needs people to break the line because going side to side is ok whilst looking for an opportunity but at some point you've got do something else if you want to score.

Fleck is one of the few players willing to do this.

 

[bypassblade]

Just watched highlights how did Gray miss that, also saw the McB header down and shot from Robbo he could have put it anywhere and scored but put it straight in GK's arms.

 

[Panini]

The Robinson chance was rated at 5%. This means that of all similar attempts (half-volley, 15 yards out, off-centre, defender in the way, keeper in position centre of goal etc etc) 1 in 20 go in, or in other words you could 'expect' 1 in 20 to be converted. This is where the term 'expected goals' (xG) comes from. 'Expected' sometimes causes confusion as it suggests it's a prediction made before the game, rather than a stat based on what actually happened, like possession, shots on target etc

 

[Woodwardfan]

It means that on average we would score 0.4 goals over the whole game, NOT just the Robinson chance. If you think Robinson should score that chance half the time, have a guess what the xG for the Andre Gray chance was

Spoiler

0.61

So it does then.

 

[finlaytheblade]

I think he was aware of what we could do & I think that he was just looking to create a beachhead to re-build the season on. 'Clean sheet and a point and let's push on from here' mentality. I think they'll have enough quality to be safe.

There will be a few teams looking over there shoulder if Watford get out of this,including us : Everton ,newcastle and others all the way to top half.

 

[BushBlade]

The Robinson chance was rated at 5%. This means that of all similar attempts (half-volley, 15 yards out, off-centre, defender in the way, keeper in position centre of goal etc etc) 1 in 20 go in, or in other words you could 'expect' 1 in 20 to be converted. This is where the term 'expected goals' (xG) comes from. 'Expected' sometimes causes confusion as it suggests it's a prediction made before the game, rather than a stat based on what actually happened, like possession, shots on target etc

View attachment 62395

As supporters we tend to over estimate the likelihood of scoring from most chances. I blame the pundits to a degree, how many times do you hear one saying ‘he should have scored that’ when the stats say it’s a one in two chance or ‘he doesn’t miss those’ when he missed one exactly the same the week before.

 

[finlaytheblade]

The Robinson chance was rated at 5%. This means that of all similar attempts (half-volley, 15 yards out, off-centre, defender in the way, keeper in position centre of goal etc etc) 1 in 20 go in, or in other words you could 'expect' 1 in 20 to be converted. This is where the term 'expected goals' (xG) comes from. 'Expected' sometimes causes confusion as it suggests it's a prediction made before the game, rather than a stat based on what actually happened, like possession, shots on target etc

View attachment 62395

If you believed all these stats no one would ever have a poke at goal , stats are average goals from a position.
We dont have a dig often enough many goals come from reflections,if you dont buy a ticket you dont win the raffle.

 

[Harrisblade]

Really? We had 0.4 xG in the whole game. Some people hugely overestimate how good chances actually are

What did Watfords 3 sitters show up as in the xG system?

 

[Panini]

If you believed all these stats no one would ever have a poke at goal , stats are average goals from a position.
We dont have a dig often enough many goals come from reflections,if you dont buy a ticket you dont win the raffle.

I'm not suggesting otherwise. Focussing on creating high % chances is equivalent to trying to 'walk it in' and we have been occasionally guilty of that.

My explanation of Robinson's effort was in response to a poster above who suggested 5 out of every 10 of those chances should be taken. The point is not to get frustrated when it doesn't go in because only 1 in 20 actually do.

 

[Panini]

What did Watfords 3 sitters show up as in the xG system?

Welbeck 0.58
Gray 0.51
Dawson 0.28

 

[Toronto Blade]

Can't complain about our defensive record.
The Blades have allowed 7 goals same as Man U and Leicester.
Only Liverpool have allowed fewer goals with 6.

 

[HighfieldBlade]

Great saves from Henderson. It's the best way to answer his critics after the Liverpool game.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Just watched highlights how did Gray miss that, also saw the McB header down and shot from Robbo he could have put it anywhere and scored but put it straight in GK's arms.

Thought Robinson’s technique there was a bit too aimed at getting a goal-of-the-month finish rather than just focusing on a finish. The situation needed more of a hook shot to sweep it down to the bottom corner rather than a tougher attempt to ping into the top corner. Think McGoldrick at Wigan last season, or 90% of Sharp’s goals.

 

[bypassblade]

Yes that is probably true

 

[BladesOnToast]

By the time we get around to the next game we should have McGoldrick back. That will improve us, providing we don't play him upfront as a striker, but instead put him in the number 10 role. As for the front pairing...Mousset and Sharp. At least we could give it a go. Can't be much worse than the lightweight/homeless combo we had yesterday.

Isn't the plan for McGoldrick to be fit in time for the Rep of Ireland game in which he breaks his leg and is ruled out for rest of season?

 

[Bergen Blade]

I stand corrected, was the opposite corner to where I was sat so tricky to see at the time. With that clarified, I thought O’Connell was the pick of the defence yesterday – right in front of me second half I got a decent view of some very intelligent interceptions to snuff out possible danger.

A complete mix up by our defence, allowing the highlighted player getting to the ball first.

 

[Bergen Blade]

Benitez like tactics from their Spanish manager. Not surprising I suppose until you consider it’s against us, a newly promoted side.

They were awful. Even though their chances were huge they seemed to happen because we were shocked that we actually had to do some defending.

 

[Silent Blade]

Isn't the plan for McGoldrick to be fit in time for the Rep of Ireland game in which he breaks his leg and is ruled out for rest of season?

McGoldrick not in ROI squad

 

[Cerberus Blade]

Isn't the plan for McGoldrick to be fit in time for the Rep of Ireland game in which he breaks his leg and is ruled out for rest of season?

that’s a bit far-fetched. I think he’ll be struck by a flying Uillean pipe during a wild Hooley night in a Dublin bar and be concussed and miss the next 10 games only.