ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
... I was really a bit down with this season - so after Hecky's first game (the Bristol City game) I did a few comparison graphs to see if the playoffs might still be possible.
I was asked to keep them updated, which I did - but fuck, now even I'm starting to hope, and it's the hope that kills you!
Graph 1 below takes our Game 20 results (after Bristol City) and adds 2 sets of possible (but optimistic) future results. The black dashed line takes us to 78 points, and almost certain top 6, the blue dashed line takes us to 71 points, the likely minimum that has any chance of top 6.
After last night's win at St Andrews (the red line) we are comfortably ahead of both black and blue lines - so on schedule with the forecasts to reach top 6.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 27 games we had 43 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 50 in 18/19, so we are currently just 1 point behind where we were in 17/18 and 8 behind Wilder's promotion season in 18/19.
Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, we are now just 2 points behind 08/09 (3rd) and a point ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 27 games.
Finally, last week Dkc asked me to apply the same approach to Autos - where 90 points will almost certainly get you in the Top 2. Again, I went through the fixtures and created a rule which was what I felt was the least improbable set of results that would get us to 90 points from the Game 20 position.
Graph 4 is the somewhat scary result.
Hush! Hush! Whisper Who Dares! Paul Hecky Bottom is Saying his Prayers.
(Apologies to AA Milne.)
Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 3
Graph 4
I was asked to keep them updated, which I did - but fuck, now even I'm starting to hope, and it's the hope that kills you!
Graph 1 below takes our Game 20 results (after Bristol City) and adds 2 sets of possible (but optimistic) future results. The black dashed line takes us to 78 points, and almost certain top 6, the blue dashed line takes us to 71 points, the likely minimum that has any chance of top 6.
After last night's win at St Andrews (the red line) we are comfortably ahead of both black and blue lines - so on schedule with the forecasts to reach top 6.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 27 games we had 43 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 50 in 18/19, so we are currently just 1 point behind where we were in 17/18 and 8 behind Wilder's promotion season in 18/19.
Graph 3 compares this season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, we are now just 2 points behind 08/09 (3rd) and a point ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 27 games.
Finally, last week Dkc asked me to apply the same approach to Autos - where 90 points will almost certainly get you in the Top 2. Again, I went through the fixtures and created a rule which was what I felt was the least improbable set of results that would get us to 90 points from the Game 20 position.
Graph 4 is the somewhat scary result.
Hush! Hush! Whisper Who Dares! Paul Hecky Bottom is Saying his Prayers.
(Apologies to AA Milne.)
Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 3
Graph 4
