ucandomagic
Active Member
Lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth around after last night's Dull City game - so a bit of simple reality here that shows that we are still well on track to have a good season, and with the possibility of an outstanding one.
Graph 1 shows our progress against the 3 benchmark sets of results which I created to achieve 3 different objectives when Hecky took over: -
a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
almost certain automatic promotion (90 points).
After the Dull City game last night, Graph 1 shows that we are still well on track for the playoffs. We've started to fall below the autos line now, but I only put that on at an earlier request. The reality is that we would need to win 14 of our remaining 16 games to get beyond 90 points - but the longer we stay close to the autos line the more likely the playoffs become.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 30 games we had 46 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 54 in 18/19, so we are now 1 point ahead of where we were in 17/18, when we tailed off to 10th, and now 7 points behind Wilder's automatic promotion season in 18/19, our second place season.
Graph 3 compares our current season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, on 47 points after 30 games, we are now just 1 point behind 08/09 (3rd) and 5 points ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 30 games.
Overall, as long as we can stay close to the "Playoffs Certain" line in Graph 1 and the 08/09 season in Graph 3 we will get to the post-season games. My only worry is that the 17/18 tail-off in Graph 2 followed Couttsy's broken leg, and we do seem to be picking up a few injuries to important players at present. After the next 5 games, which include Blackburn, Forest and Boro, everything could be very much clearer.
Keep Calm and Carry On
Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 3
Graph 1 shows our progress against the 3 benchmark sets of results which I created to achieve 3 different objectives when Hecky took over: -
a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
almost certain automatic promotion (90 points).
After the Dull City game last night, Graph 1 shows that we are still well on track for the playoffs. We've started to fall below the autos line now, but I only put that on at an earlier request. The reality is that we would need to win 14 of our remaining 16 games to get beyond 90 points - but the longer we stay close to the autos line the more likely the playoffs become.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 30 games we had 46 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 54 in 18/19, so we are now 1 point ahead of where we were in 17/18, when we tailed off to 10th, and now 7 points behind Wilder's automatic promotion season in 18/19, our second place season.
Graph 3 compares our current season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, on 47 points after 30 games, we are now just 1 point behind 08/09 (3rd) and 5 points ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 30 games.
Overall, as long as we can stay close to the "Playoffs Certain" line in Graph 1 and the 08/09 season in Graph 3 we will get to the post-season games. My only worry is that the 17/18 tail-off in Graph 2 followed Couttsy's broken leg, and we do seem to be picking up a few injuries to important players at present. After the next 5 games, which include Blackburn, Forest and Boro, everything could be very much clearer.
Keep Calm and Carry On
Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 3
