Updated Graphs - Feb 16 - Facts not Emotions

[ucandomagic]

Lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth around after last night's Dull City game - so a bit of simple reality here that shows that we are still well on track to have a good season, and with the possibility of an outstanding one.

Graph 1 shows our progress against the 3 benchmark sets of results which I created to achieve 3 different objectives when Hecky took over: -

a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
almost certain automatic promotion (90 points).

After the Dull City game last night, Graph 1 shows that we are still well on track for the playoffs. We've started to fall below the autos line now, but I only put that on at an earlier request. The reality is that we would need to win 14 of our remaining 16 games to get beyond 90 points - but the longer we stay close to the autos line the more likely the playoffs become.

Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 30 games we had 46 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 54 in 18/19, so we are now 1 point ahead of where we were in 17/18, when we tailed off to 10th, and now 7 points behind Wilder's automatic promotion season in 18/19, our second place season.

Graph 3 compares our current season with Blackwell's 08/09 (3rd) and 09/10 (8th) seasons. For these, on 47 points after 30 games, we are now just 1 point behind 08/09 (3rd) and 5 points ahead of 09/10 (8th) after 30 games.

Overall, as long as we can stay close to the "Playoffs Certain" line in Graph 1 and the 08/09 season in Graph 3 we will get to the post-season games. My only worry is that the 17/18 tail-off in Graph 2 followed Couttsy's broken leg, and we do seem to be picking up a few injuries to important players at present. After the next 5 games, which include Blackburn, Forest and Boro, everything could be very much clearer.

Keep Calm and Carry On

Graph 1


Graph 2


Graph 3

 

[Blade56]

I see what you’ve done there

 

[jono_t2000]

Consistently tracking below season we finished 2nd and 3rd but above season finished 8th and 10th.

Still looking very decent to grab one of the bottom 2 playoff spots

 

[Champagneblade]

I'm liking your work. Along with Deadbat 's report, Roygbiv 's view from, pommpey 's my take, this is becoming staple of the forum.

Apologies to anyone who is doing a regular feature who I've inadvertently omitted

 

[SouthStandGBlock]

I'm liking your work. Along with Deadbat 's report, Roygbiv 's view from, pommpey 's my take, this is becoming staple of the forum.

Apologies to anyone who is doing a regular feature who I've inadvertently omitted

Agreed. I always read 3 out of the 4 of these too. Ucandomagics graphs are really interesting, thanks for doing them.

 

[MightyBlades]

Where are you, 'Magic' Graph Man?

 

[Pittsburg Blade]

I'm liking your work. Along with Deadbat 's report, Roygbiv 's view from, pommpey 's my take, this is becoming staple of the forum.

Apologies to anyone who is doing a regular feature who I've inadvertently omitted

I do a regular feature every morning, but do I get a mention..?

 

[Cappy]

Put the number things into the Excel thing and make us moist!

 

[Panini]

Can I please make a request ucandomagic ?

I've seen a few mentions of Fulham's run to the playoffs after they beat us 5-4 and we're a curious bunch so would it be possible to plot our season against Fulham's 17/18? Happy to do it myself if not but this is your thing

 

[bladesrus]

Hey come on, allow ucandomagic time for a good liquid celebration, first thing in the morning will do fine

 

[ucandomagic]

Hey come on, allow ucandomagic time for a good liquid celebration, first thing in the morning will do fine

I’m half way down a bottle of Scotch having driven 100 miles back after the game and getting ready to see Kell wipe out Amir big mouth - so tomorrow is probably best.

By the way, that Huddersfield penalty was a fucking travesty. Rodak was literally stationary when he ran into him - no law says you can’t just stay you are! Then a clear handball by Udders and the ref says no!!