ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Things have actually started to become pretty clear, shit or bust (!), but I have been asked to post some updates to my graphs.
As usual Graph 1 shows our progress against the 2 benchmark sets of results, which I created in November when Hecky took over, which would achieve 2 different objectives:-
a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
Graph 1 clearly shows that after our brilliant start under Hecky, when we were well clear of a playoff-bound record, we have fallen below "playoffs certain" to borderline "playoffs possible" - but we don't need a graph to tell us that any more! My estimate from back in November of 71 points as the minimum necessary for playoffs still looks quite close. We are now bang on my "playoffs possible" benchmark results, at 66 points from 43 games. (My results then had us beating Cardiff and drawing with QPR and Fulham to get to 71 points.) Whatever your thoughts about other results, I think everybody thinks that Cardiff is a must win.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 43 games we had 66 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 82 in 18/19, so we are now exactly where we were in 17/18, when we lost 2 of the last 3 and won the last game to finish 10th on 69. It's interesting how Hecky's early results pulled us up to Wilder's 17/18 season and ever since then we have run right on top of the 17/18 results.
Anyway, let's just stuff Warnock's 2 sets of old boys on Saturday 23rd and on Friday 29th to get us in a good position against Slav's old boys on May 7th and moving on!
Slava Ukraini
Graph 1

Graph 2

i
As usual Graph 1 shows our progress against the 2 benchmark sets of results, which I created in November when Hecky took over, which would achieve 2 different objectives:-
a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
Graph 1 clearly shows that after our brilliant start under Hecky, when we were well clear of a playoff-bound record, we have fallen below "playoffs certain" to borderline "playoffs possible" - but we don't need a graph to tell us that any more! My estimate from back in November of 71 points as the minimum necessary for playoffs still looks quite close. We are now bang on my "playoffs possible" benchmark results, at 66 points from 43 games. (My results then had us beating Cardiff and drawing with QPR and Fulham to get to 71 points.) Whatever your thoughts about other results, I think everybody thinks that Cardiff is a must win.
Graph 2 compares this season with the 2 Wilder seasons (10th and 2nd) in the Championship. After 43 games we had 66 points in Wilder's 17/18 season and 82 in 18/19, so we are now exactly where we were in 17/18, when we lost 2 of the last 3 and won the last game to finish 10th on 69. It's interesting how Hecky's early results pulled us up to Wilder's 17/18 season and ever since then we have run right on top of the 17/18 results.
Anyway, let's just stuff Warnock's 2 sets of old boys on Saturday 23rd and on Friday 29th to get us in a good position against Slav's old boys on May 7th and moving on!
Slava Ukraini
Graph 1

Graph 2

i