GreasyChipBeattie
Well-Known Member
If we finish top 6, we'll be almost certainly be at home first leg of the play-offs.
Even if we max 6 points from our last 2 games, we can't catch 'Udders and Forest would only need 2 points from their last 4 games to confirm this.
The questions that remain. Can we overtake Luton, or more to the point, do we want to, and what's the likelihood of us missing out.
Well, if we win at QPR by 1 goal, we go level on points and 1 less on GD (though they have scored 6 more than us so even a 2-0 win to us would keep us below them on goals scored). They play on Monday....away at Fulham, so if we do win 1-0, a 2 goal defeat at Fulham would see us go above them.
So, down to the last game. Match their result and we finish 5th (assuming those below us aren't still in the mix)
Who's our biggest threat?
Anything against QPR and they're out of it. They would have to beat us and win at Swansea in their last game and hope we don't get anything at home to Fulham.
Coventry would need 2 wins against Huddersfield (H) and Stoke (A) and us to lose both ours, all with a 10 goal swing.
Blackburn would need 2 wins from 3 against Preston (A) Bournemouth (H) Birmingham (A) and us to lose both ours.
Middlesbro would need the same from Cardiff (H) Stoke (H) and Preston (A) Blackburn and Boro have the same last-5 form of D2 L3
Millwall are probably our most likely challengers.
Even then, due to GD, one point from our last two leaves them needing to win both theirs Peterbro (H) Bournemouth (A)
So, we have an excellent chance of a top 6 finish, and a good chance of 5th...if we want that.
If we do finish above Luton, it's touch and go who we would face..
Huddersfield (3 points ahead of Forest with a far worse goal difference) have Coventry (A) and Bristol City (H)
Forest have Fulham (A) Swansea (H) Bournemouth (A) Hull (A)
It's too soon to say who will finish 3rd or 4th (assuming Forest don't win all theirs and pip Bournemouth who need 2 wins a draw and a defeat from their last 4. Less that that if one of those wins is against Forest.
So there we have it.
A great chance of a play-off place, and don't be surprised if we lose either way to Fulham on the last day to decide for ourselves who we play in the first leg.
Even if we max 6 points from our last 2 games, we can't catch 'Udders and Forest would only need 2 points from their last 4 games to confirm this.
The questions that remain. Can we overtake Luton, or more to the point, do we want to, and what's the likelihood of us missing out.
Well, if we win at QPR by 1 goal, we go level on points and 1 less on GD (though they have scored 6 more than us so even a 2-0 win to us would keep us below them on goals scored). They play on Monday....away at Fulham, so if we do win 1-0, a 2 goal defeat at Fulham would see us go above them.
So, down to the last game. Match their result and we finish 5th (assuming those below us aren't still in the mix)
Who's our biggest threat?
Anything against QPR and they're out of it. They would have to beat us and win at Swansea in their last game and hope we don't get anything at home to Fulham.
Coventry would need 2 wins against Huddersfield (H) and Stoke (A) and us to lose both ours, all with a 10 goal swing.
Blackburn would need 2 wins from 3 against Preston (A) Bournemouth (H) Birmingham (A) and us to lose both ours.
Middlesbro would need the same from Cardiff (H) Stoke (H) and Preston (A) Blackburn and Boro have the same last-5 form of D2 L3
Millwall are probably our most likely challengers.
Even then, due to GD, one point from our last two leaves them needing to win both theirs Peterbro (H) Bournemouth (A)
So, we have an excellent chance of a top 6 finish, and a good chance of 5th...if we want that.
If we do finish above Luton, it's touch and go who we would face..
Huddersfield (3 points ahead of Forest with a far worse goal difference) have Coventry (A) and Bristol City (H)
Forest have Fulham (A) Swansea (H) Bournemouth (A) Hull (A)
It's too soon to say who will finish 3rd or 4th (assuming Forest don't win all theirs and pip Bournemouth who need 2 wins a draw and a defeat from their last 4. Less that that if one of those wins is against Forest.
So there we have it.
A great chance of a play-off place, and don't be surprised if we lose either way to Fulham on the last day to decide for ourselves who we play in the first leg.
