The Bohemian
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- Jul 24, 2012
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To assess the Blades’, now intuitively unlikely, chances of making the Top 2, I’ve looked at the league position, games lost, goals conceded and scored by the ten automatically promoted teams, at this stage of the past 5 seasons.
The stats make grim reading from a Blades perspective:
Table 1 shows the League position of the two promoted teams, at this stage of the season:
Table 1
League Number of
Pos Teams
1st 4
2nd 4
3rd 1
7th 1
Eight out of ten promoted teams were already in the top 2; a further one was 3rd and the one team that made a late charge from 7th place – and won the league – was Bournemouth in 2012/13.
With the Blades currently lying 6th it still leaves a remote, 9/1, chance of an automatic place, but Bournemouth, unlike The Blades, had momentum in their favour.
Table 2 shows games lost by the automatically promoted teams at the same juncture for the past 5 seasons:
Table 2
Games Number of
Lost Teams
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 3
5 2
6 1
7 1
'Dirty Leeds', at the same point in 2009/10, had lost just one game, whereas Southampton, at the other extreme, had lost 7 – the same number, currently, as The Blades.
Again, this leaves The Blades with an outside squeak of an automatic place but leaves very little margin for error from hereon.
Tables 3 shows the goals conceded by the final Top 2 at this point of the season:
Table 3
Goals Number of
Conceded Teams
14 1
18 1
19 2
20 1
23 1
24 1
28 1
31 1
33 1
The lowest number of goals conceded at this stage was 14, by Leeds in 2009/10, whilst at the other extreme Bournemouth had conceded 33 at the same stage. From a statistical standpoint the 26 goals conceded by The Blades’ is a decent performance and not, in itself, an impediment to automatic promotion.
Finally, Table 4, shows, critically, the number of goals scored by the finishing Top 2, with just over half the season gone.
Table 4
Goals Number of
Scored Teams
39 2
42 2
43 2
45 1
46 1
49 1
54 1
The Blades’ current tally of just 28 – a full 11 goals behind the worst of the promoted teams - shows clearly where the main problem lies and reinforces the point, made in an earlier post, regarding the importance of a 20+ goal striker in a promotion team.
Summary
The stats probably back up the perspective of most supporters that automatic promotion is now a long shot. Unless the team can quickly start scoring at an average of 2+ goals per game, without worsening the current defensive performance of just over 1 goal per game, it will be the Play-offs at best for The Blades this season.
This presents Cloughie with a dilemma: Does he continue with his current defensively minded formation and try to grind out enough results to ensure a Play-off position – essentially forgetting about an automatic promotion place? Or does he change to a more expansive system, which risks leaking more goals, and make an all out assault on a Top 2 finish?
Whilst Cloughie himself has consistently played down the Blades' pre-season promotion favouritism, most supporters, myself included, will regard a failure to win promotion this time as a qualified failure. If his team finishes outside the top 6, his performance will be viewed as abject failure by all but his spouse and kids, and his position may become untenable. I therefore expect he will continue to play it safe and bank on his cup achievements, allied with a good run through the Play-offs, to keep him in situ and most supporters just about onside.
This is a crucial few months for The Blades as the financial and morale implications of a weak finish puts progress made in the last 12 months at risk. Few on this forum seem desperate for a change of manager, and the ensuing merry go round of uncertainty, but without a strong finish supporters and owners will become twitchy.
Last season, the arrival of Brayford had a catalytic effect on the team and it feels as though Cloughie needs to find another talisman this time around. The noises from both Cloughie and the boardroom give the sense that significant transfer movement is imminent. Let us hope it's not too little too late.
UTB!
The stats make grim reading from a Blades perspective:
Table 1 shows the League position of the two promoted teams, at this stage of the season:
Table 1
League Number of
Pos Teams
1st 4
2nd 4
3rd 1
7th 1
Eight out of ten promoted teams were already in the top 2; a further one was 3rd and the one team that made a late charge from 7th place – and won the league – was Bournemouth in 2012/13.
With the Blades currently lying 6th it still leaves a remote, 9/1, chance of an automatic place, but Bournemouth, unlike The Blades, had momentum in their favour.
Table 2 shows games lost by the automatically promoted teams at the same juncture for the past 5 seasons:
Table 2
Games Number of
Lost Teams
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 3
5 2
6 1
7 1
'Dirty Leeds', at the same point in 2009/10, had lost just one game, whereas Southampton, at the other extreme, had lost 7 – the same number, currently, as The Blades.
Again, this leaves The Blades with an outside squeak of an automatic place but leaves very little margin for error from hereon.
Tables 3 shows the goals conceded by the final Top 2 at this point of the season:
Table 3
Goals Number of
Conceded Teams
14 1
18 1
19 2
20 1
23 1
24 1
28 1
31 1
33 1
The lowest number of goals conceded at this stage was 14, by Leeds in 2009/10, whilst at the other extreme Bournemouth had conceded 33 at the same stage. From a statistical standpoint the 26 goals conceded by The Blades’ is a decent performance and not, in itself, an impediment to automatic promotion.
Finally, Table 4, shows, critically, the number of goals scored by the finishing Top 2, with just over half the season gone.
Table 4
Goals Number of
Scored Teams
39 2
42 2
43 2
45 1
46 1
49 1
54 1
The Blades’ current tally of just 28 – a full 11 goals behind the worst of the promoted teams - shows clearly where the main problem lies and reinforces the point, made in an earlier post, regarding the importance of a 20+ goal striker in a promotion team.
Summary
The stats probably back up the perspective of most supporters that automatic promotion is now a long shot. Unless the team can quickly start scoring at an average of 2+ goals per game, without worsening the current defensive performance of just over 1 goal per game, it will be the Play-offs at best for The Blades this season.
This presents Cloughie with a dilemma: Does he continue with his current defensively minded formation and try to grind out enough results to ensure a Play-off position – essentially forgetting about an automatic promotion place? Or does he change to a more expansive system, which risks leaking more goals, and make an all out assault on a Top 2 finish?
Whilst Cloughie himself has consistently played down the Blades' pre-season promotion favouritism, most supporters, myself included, will regard a failure to win promotion this time as a qualified failure. If his team finishes outside the top 6, his performance will be viewed as abject failure by all but his spouse and kids, and his position may become untenable. I therefore expect he will continue to play it safe and bank on his cup achievements, allied with a good run through the Play-offs, to keep him in situ and most supporters just about onside.
This is a crucial few months for The Blades as the financial and morale implications of a weak finish puts progress made in the last 12 months at risk. Few on this forum seem desperate for a change of manager, and the ensuing merry go round of uncertainty, but without a strong finish supporters and owners will become twitchy.
Last season, the arrival of Brayford had a catalytic effect on the team and it feels as though Cloughie needs to find another talisman this time around. The noises from both Cloughie and the boardroom give the sense that significant transfer movement is imminent. Let us hope it's not too little too late.
UTB!
