Today Times on Fourth Spot

[FriethBlade]

2 page article headlined ' Can Chelsea hold off rivals to win the race for fourth'

We feature extensively...heady, heady days to be a Blade !!!

Some interesting stats include of the 6 clubs chasing fourth we have conceded the lowest percentage of shots on target at just 8%, Chelsea are 15%, Everton 14% Man U 11%, further proof of Hendos worth. At the opposite end of the pitch weve scored the fewest and had the fewest shots on target but our conversion ratio is the third best. We are also third in the 6 team table based on points gained against others in that mini league of 6 teams.

As Tony Cascarino says in the article 'for Sheffield Unoted to be safe from relegation in the second week of February is an outrageous achievement'

All 4 pundits think Chelsea will finish fourth which is no surprise given that's where they are currently

 

[bladesmanluke]

I think if we're being honest we all think Chelsea will finish 4th and so they should. Fantastic that we're pushing them for it though and should we fail hopefully we will be caught by the Europa League

 

[Barnette]

I listened to the same subject to Talk Sport this lunchtime - usual statements about us - fairytale story, overacheivers etc etc and saying that we haven't really got a chance of 4th.....

What none of these expect pundits factor in though, is that we are battle hardy - we did the same thing last year. We got ourselves in a great position by January and then dug in for the rest of the season. Our football wasn't that great tbh, but we got results when we needed them.

I'm not saying the same thing will happen this season, but in many respects its a similar season - we have played our best football to get ourselves into a great position by the turn of the season and now we are digging in.

How many of the other clubs in contention, despite the fact they have "a better squad" have the spirit and resilience that ours has when the going gets tough...and what matters most....hmmm lets see ???

 

[Balham]

We've consistently had relatively low shots per game since Wilder took over as he actively discourages the speculative 30 yard efforts which are symptomatic of a team without a plan. We create comparatively few chances but those chances we do create are generally excellent. I don't have the figures to hand but I'd be amazed if our xG per shot isn't in the top 2 or 3 in the league.

 

[moDtheGod]

I don't have the figures to hand but I'd be amazed if our xG per shot isn't in the top 2 or 3 in the league.

Good shout sir.



I only used "Open Play" data, so the xG figures are not skewed by having a lot of penalties of free kicks in good areas. Also, moves developing out of open play illustrate a team's "plan" much better than balls lumped into the box from corners and the like.

 

[diode_blade]

Why are the pigs included in that table

 

[Charlieblade]

I’m sure Spurs and Chelsea still have to come to Bramall Lane this season. Having played, and matched them away from home, I’m really looking forward to those games.
We can still take points of Leicester, now we are free from relegation worries.

 

[Fulwood Blade]

Everyone should go and have a look at Chelsea's fixtures over the next Month - it's as difficult as it can be - with Bayern Munich x 2 sandwiched in the middle and the small matter of an FA Cup game v Liverpool..

We just need to keep picking up points and put pressure on teams ABOVE and below us.

UTB

 

[BushBlade]

I think if we're being honest we all think Chelsea will finish 4th and so they should. Fantastic that we're pushing them for it though and should we fail hopefully we will be caught by the Europa League

I don’t. I think they’ll bottle it. And 5th might be enough anyway.

 

[Boxer Blade]

The games against spurs and Chelsea at home are going to be brilliant, the atmosphere will be like it was earlier in the season, not an awful lot for us to lose (as we weren't expected to be anywhere near where we are) we will have a right go at them, can't wait.

 

[raimond]

The games against spurs and Chelsea at home are going to be brilliant, the atmosphere will be like it was earlier in the season, not an awful lot for us to lose (as we weren't expected to be anywhere near where we are) we will have a right go at them, can't wait.

And Wolves. And Everton.

 

[Boxer Blade]

And Wolves. And Everton.

Spot on

 

[PokerBlade]

We've consistently had relatively low shots per game since Wilder took over as he actively discourages the speculative 30 yard efforts which are symptomatic of a team without a plan. We create comparatively few chances but those chances we do create are generally excellent. I don't have the figures to hand but I'd be amazed if our xG per shot isn't in the top 2 or 3 in the league.

Something that I haven't seen talked about much, possibly because sample sizes over a season are way too small, is the variance involved in xG. It was a thing always talked about in poker was that when you push a very small edge in a given spot then, while it's profitable, it has a high variance. That means you expect bigger swings in your play with more extreme winning sessions but longer break even or losing patches. So, in principle, even if you took enough low % shots to come out with the same xG as a team like us you might expect less consistency in results (going a few games without scoring, going on a run where you score loads).

In poker it's always good to push those edges (ignoring some exceptions for simplicity's sake) because your return is going to be based on the money in at the time. In football your return is fixed; it's always 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, irrespective of whether it's a 5-0 or a 1-0 win, a 1-1 draw or a 3-3 draw (again, ignoring the minor aspect of goal difference before a pedant appears). In that sense it might be even better to play in a way that gives a consistent return of results than to go the higher variance route of shots from range.

 

[Cerberus Blade]

2 page article headlined ' Can Chelsea hold off rivals to win the race for fourth'

We feature extensively...heady, heady days to be a Blade !!!

Some interesting stats include of the 6 clubs chasing fourth we have conceded the lowest percentage of shots on target at just 8%, Chelsea are 15%, Everton 14% Man U 11%, further proof of Hendos worth. At the opposite end of the pitch weve scored the fewest and had the fewest shots on target but our conversion ratio is the third best. We are also third in the 6 team table based on points gained against others in that mini league of 6 teams.

As Tony Cascarino says in the article 'for Sheffield Unoted to be safe from relegation in the second week of February is an outrageous achievement'

All 4 pundits think Chelsea will finish fourth which is no surprise given that's where they are currently

Shots on target have nothing to do with Hendo. He cannot influence how many shots on target a team has.

Cascarino’s choice of words is inappropriate. Our achievement has nothing to do with outrage - making people mad with rage. If he’d said “unbelievable” or “incredible” that would be better.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

If we don't finish 4th I want Chansiri out.

 

[northsomersetblade]

Shots on target have nothing to do with Hendo. He cannot influence how many shots on target a team has.

Cascarino’s choice of words is inappropriate. Our achievement has nothing to do with outrage - making people mad with rage. If he’d said “unbelievable” or “incredible” that would be better.

Nonsense. He has 'shoot at me' eyes. He knows what he's doing