This season's start vs last season

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moDtheGod

moDtheGod

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Just put together a little comparison of last season's start against this season. I came into this thinking "it's actually not that bad, get a few points in the next few matches and we'll basically be on a par with last season" but on looking at the findings, I'm actually a bit worried.

2011/12 - First six matches
Oldham (A) - W
Brentford (H) - W
Walsall (H) - W
Tranmere (A) - D
Yeovil (A) - W
Bury (H) - W

Points: 16

2012/13 - First six matches
Shrewsbury (H) - W
Coventry (A) - D
Colchester (A) - D
Bournemouth (H) - W
Scunthorpe (A) - D
Bury (H) - D

Points: 10

2011/12 - Next four
Scunthorpe (A) - D
Huddersfield (H) - L
Colchester (H) - W
Wycombe (A) - L

Points: 4

2011/12 - Next four
Doncaster (A)
Yeovil (A)
Notts County (H)
Hartlepool (A)

Points: ???

I would expect us to get a minimum of three points here (which would leave us seven points adrift of last season's first ten games) and a maximum of six (which would leave us just four points adrift). Any more than six is a shade unrealistic for me, but would leave us not far off where we were last year.

It's my opinion that this season's promoted teams will not need to bag as many points as last term, so maybe it's not all bad.

Any thoughts?
 



I am quite concerned because we have thrown 6 points away against bottom teams
- we have not played anyone in the top half yet.
Not taking chances and being lax at the back (think of the number of clean sheets) is not a good combination. When we come up against teams with better finishers we will be punished.

Donny will be a different proposition on Tuesday night compared to anyone we have played to date. Any lack of concentration will cost us - I suspect it is all set up for Donny to get three points on Tuesday night - Cotterill will rip us apart if the back 4 concentrate like today. It appears that we are not dominating games because we are giving the ball away too easily - especially when you consider we are supposed to be set up as a footballing team. Creativity is lacking from wide areas - we are not stretching teams enough to create the space in the middle.
 
Out of interest, how do the league leaders compare to the league leaders this time last year?

It's all a bit early to mean anything, but would be interesting to compare.

Despite having dropped points we're still only a few from the top.
 
Defensively we look similar to last season - some good individuals but sloppy & error prone as a unit. Midfield - like last season we have one quality player - McD - and also like last season the midfield offer no support defensively - when the opposition attack they generally get a sight on goal. Up front we can't compete with Ched's finishing - some flashes of quality but no real cutting edge.

Overall - a bit disapponted so far but hopefully we will improve.

I think we could finish anywhere in the top 8.
 
Good question Foxy. CBA working it out, but after five games we had this:

2011-12 Five Games.JPG

Tranmere top the current table with 14 points from six matches. County have 13, Stevenage & Crawley 12, Walsall 11 and we have 10.
 
Another worrying point is that we've played all of the bottom six barring one yet still find ourselves outside of the play-offs.
 
Cotterill will rip us apart if the back 4 concentrate like today.
Click to expand...

Shout "boo" at Cotterill and he'll shit his pants and disappear, at least he always did when he played for us. Will never forgive him for bottling that tackle against the Pigs, a terrible coward of a player who should cause us no threat whatsoever if we play him correctly.
 
For me the main problem - apart from lack of ability which is a given in the Third Divisioin - is attitude.
In a game like today, we should be roaring out of the blocks and straight into 'em. As usual, we pissed about until Bury thought there were points for the taking. Similar with set pieces. Everybody hides, giving no options. Corners are floated in instead of fired and, as usual, we defend corners with 11 leaving absolutely no outlet.

All basics, but something easily rectified by any manager worth his salt.

A fair result today and could have been worse. Blackman good but it didn't really matter who DW brought on, Cresswell, Kitson, if the basic service is non-existent.

Hopefully, just one of those days.
 
Interesting analysis MoD. You have to remember that we started very well last year. This years start has been very good, apart from today. The old saying is win your home games and draw away. We played better and should have taken the points at Coventry and Colchester, but a point away from home should not be scoffed at. When we drew away at Scunny with 9 men, my thoughts were beat (shitty) Bury at home and it's a decent start.

Not beating Bury at home is very poor. Bury will go down this year. They are not very good and we should be beating teams like that at home. I expect Coventry and Colchester to finish mid table, so am not too upset that we only drew at their places.

The next 4 games look tricky. Doncaster should tell us where we are, but remember we are at home! Yeovil are not very good and we should be looking to get a result. Hartlepool will be tricky and County (again) should show what we might expect for the season.

Anybody that is surprised that we have made a mediocre start should look at the summer we've had. You simply cannot lose 4 of last season's 7 best players and expect to smash the league. Ched scored more than 30 goals, Willo double figures, Quinn and Lowton almost 10. That's 2/3 of the goals we scored. Then if you look at assists (and Highbury's key passes thread) then you can see that these players were the most creative and influential. I look at our first 11 and am not very excited. We should be fairly solid, as I rate the defence. Collins and Maguire were the best centre back pairing in the division last year. K Mac and Doyle formed a good partnership last year and the former is the best midfielder in the league. The rest? Meh.

Now the division ois much wekaer than last year. Last season there were three tiers. Us, pigs and Charlton were a lot better than everyone else. The next tier was Huddersfield (it could be argued they were in the top tier), MK Dons, Stevenage, Carlisle and County. The rest were miles behind. This year I think we have about 10 teams that are all very similar. Like Deano I think we'll be top 8, but cannot say where. I think us, Crawley, Swindon, MK Dons, Stevenage and County are all at similar levels. You can probably throw in Preston, Donny and Tranmere to that too (maybe even Brentford).
 
Without going in to the ins and outs of it all, games like Bury at home, are the games where need to be putting a marker out and winning comfortably, not just ending up scraping a draw.
 
Sick of hearing about how good Swindon are. Swindon will struggle to even finish top half with that lunatic in charge. They are not in the same class as us, and we might not be in the same class as the 'us' of last season.

I'm not totally convinced about the Crawley bandwagon either, though you can have MK, Stevenage and Notts County, who I would expect to be top six.
 
Well we'll just have to see about that MoD. But my point is that there are several sides that are at a similar level to us. You can disagree about who, but we are not one of the stand out teams this year and, there are 6 or 7 teams that we are not any better than (though possibly no worse).
 
I'm inclined to agree on gut feeling, but when I try to name "six or seven" sides that are better than us man for man, I can't.
 
First XI are better than most teams in this Division, but its when it comes to injuries and the strength of the squad and then that's where our deficiencies become apparent.
 
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Princess Annes Dog said:
Shout "boo" at Cotterill and he'll shit his pants and disappear, at least he always did when he played for us. Will never forgive him for bottling that tackle against the Pigs, a terrible coward of a player who should cause us no threat whatsoever if we play him correctly.
Click to expand...

If Cotterill is up against Hill, I fear the worst.
 
Out of the teams above us currently, I only see Notts County causing us any problems come the end of the season.
Sadly, the 3 below, I believe will also push us.

Btw - donny is at home, not away
 
bartman said:
Why? Hill has performed well this season and at the end of last season
Click to expand...
He was our worst player yesterday, similarly for last season too.
Sadly the alternative is Williams at the moment
 
Robbie said:
He was our worst player yesterday, similarly for last season too.
Sadly the alternative is Williams at the moment
Click to expand...


I think it's his distribution tht's poor. He's not a bad defender.

UTB
 
Deleted Member said:
post: 441374, member: 875"]First XI are better than most teams in this Division, but its when it comes to injuries and the strength of the squad and then that's where our deficiencies become apparent.
Click to expand...

Think that deficiency is already becoming apparent (again) with the loss of Doyle and Flynn through suspension.
 
bartman said:
Why? Hill has performed well this season and at the end of last season
Click to expand...

Just my thoughts really Bart. I believe that he`s the weaker of our two full backs and in the games i`ve seen so far, our opponents have tended to concentrate more on attacking down our left hand side.

Cotterill was never the most well liked player at the Lane and has taken a fair amount of stick from a lot of Blades, therefore, I fully acknowledge what you have written. However, I can see him being well up for this one on Tuesday and if he is, Hill will have to play a bloody good game to keep Cotts quiet. Lets see .
 
Robbie said:
He was our worst player yesterday, similarly for last season too.
/quote]

With that comment it would surprise me if you went to the last 10 games of last season(including Wembley) or indeed any games this season other than yesterday.

Hill must be the new scapegoat
Click to expand...
 
Blackheath Blade said:
Just my thoughts really Bart. I believe that he`s the weaker of our two full backs and in the games i`ve seen so far, our opponents have tended to concentrate more on attacking down our left hand side.

Cotterill was never the most well liked player at the Lane and has taken a fair amount of stick from a lot of Blades, therefore, I fully acknowledge what you have written. However, I can see him being well up for this one on Tuesday and if he is, Hill will have to play a bloody good game to keep Cotts quiet. Lets see .
Click to expand...

Clatter Cotts in the first minute and he normally disappears (hopefully)

In my opinion,teams have gone down our left as they could go 2 against one against Hill due to Quinn drifting everywhere. McMahon has n't been exposed as much due to McAllister trying to stick more to his position
 
bartman said:
Clatter Cotts in the first minute and he normally disappears (hopefully)

In my opinion,teams have gone down our left as they could go 2 against one against Hill due to Quinn drifting everywhere. McMahon has n't been exposed as much due to McAllister trying to stick more to his position
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's a fair point and like you, I think Cotts would drift out of the game if he got a whack early doors. Whatever happens, it'll be a tough test against Donny, let's just hope yesterday was a bad day at the office.
 



Not saying that there are 7 teams that are better than us MoD. But I cannot see much of a difference between us and most of the teams I previously named. Brownie makes a good point about our first team. I think a 1st team of Howard, McMahon, Collins, Maguire, LJF, Flynn, Doyle, K Mac, Gallagher (though I acknowledge he is a loanee), Blackman and Cressy is amongst the best in the division and would beat most. We've got cover at full back and up front. We've got a few options to try and change games, but not much. Low and behind Maguire and/or Collins gets injured or suspended. Look what happened when Collins baby was ill last year! As seen with Flynn and Doyle missing, the squad is threadbare. We've got some good young prospects but Wilson clearly does not think they are ready. If K Mac gets injured then the season is pretty much over.

I think if we get some luck (injuries and suspension wise) then we'll challenge for automatic. However we need to be much more disciplined (I am refering to the 2 reds). Looking at things objectively though, I am not sure that we'll go up. We do have a chance, but there are too many unknowns (unproven strikers, thin squad, injuries and suspensions etc). My gut feeling is that we'll fall short this season: play offs again.
 
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