Statistics The statisticians have us relegated at the moment!

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Greg.

Greg.

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions
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They have quite a detailed methodology behind it all. Pretty different to our 'where will we finish' poll where the most common choice was 12th.

That being said you can see their model from last season which had us finishing 19th after two games in!
 

As proved last season, so called experts know about as much as anyone when it comes to predictions.

We will consistently be predicted to get relegated every season until we do.
 
I mean, the statistical model isn’t wrong. If we go 2-0 down within 5 minutes and down to 10 men within 10 minutes the next game, and repeat that for the rest of the season, we probably will go down.

Good job seasons are deciding on 38 games rather than two, I suppose!
 
Stats are pretty meaningless for me until at least 5 or 6 games in, especially if they're forming the basis of an end of season prediction.
 
That being said you can see their model from last season which had us finishing 19th after two games in!
Click to expand...

And there you have it
 
Their detailed methodology at the start of the season includes player values taken from Transfermarkt i.e. a source that isn't very reliable at all.

After that it looks like they're just using a few xg stats, which is fine, but also counting for nearly nothing without playing a few games.
 
Is we lose to both Leeds and Fulham and with the games to follow that I don’t think we can argue about being relagation candidates. It could turn around even then but it will be very difficult if we are on 0 points after about 8 games.
 
‘Statistical modellers’ in various spheres haven‘t had a great record over the several months of this pandemic.

That being said, it would be churlish not to admit that 18th is precisely where I predicted we would regrettably end up, on the ‘where will we finish’ thread.

That prediction was on the basis of, (a) the season being played entirely in empty stadiums, and (b) us regressing into a team that creates very few chances and scores very few goals, in a season that looks like becoming a high-scoring shoot-out.
 
LS16Blade said:
‘Statistical modellers’ in various spheres haven‘t had a great record over the several months of this pandemic.

That being said, it would be churlish not to admit that 18th is precisely where I predicted we would regrettably end up, on the ‘where will we finish’ thread.

That prediction was on the basis of, (a) the season being played entirely in empty stadiums, and (b) us regressing into a team that creates very few chances and scores very few goals, in a season that looks like becoming a high-scoring shoot-out.
Click to expand...

I think judgement on 'relegation' needs to be held over to the end of this transfer window plus seeing who/if we get in how they bed in so to speak.

Am surprised the Belorussian Blades haven't descended on this thread yet.
 

LS16Blade said:
‘Statistical modellers’ in various spheres haven‘t had a great record over the several months of this pandemic.

That being said, it would be churlish not to admit that 18th is precisely where I predicted we would regrettably end up, on the ‘where will we finish’ thread.

That prediction was on the basis of, (a) the season being played entirely in empty stadiums, and (b) us regressing into a team that creates very few chances and scores very few goals, in a season that looks like becoming a high-scoring shoot-out.
Click to expand...
 
BettingBlade said:
Stats are pretty meaningless for me until at least 5 or 6 games in, especially if they're forming the basis of an end of season prediction.
Click to expand...
I think you have to be at least 10 games in to begin to form ant sensible prediction, especially as the window doesn’t shut until mid October
 
Getting some points on the board against Leeds and Fulham Is imperative.
 
So these statistical experts are flawless we've played 2 FUCKING GAMES, like I said if we'd played 34 I'd be more worried but FGS come on. All those moaning how shite we are and we're going down you obviously never saw us when we were shit, ala 70's, 80,s & 90's.

Those were some of the most depressing times to being a Blade but we manned up and took it, not bleating like a little baby.
 
Harry's Game said:
Is we lose to both Leeds and Fulham and with the games to follow that I don’t think we can argue about being relagation candidates. It could turn around even then but it will be very difficult if we are on 0 points after about 8 games.
Click to expand...

If that was the case, would Chrissy bring Christmas forward .... ;)
 
seems a bit stick a finger in the sky because man city win 1 game & have 60% chance of winning the title but defending champions win 2 games, 1 v top 4 rival. they have 29%
 

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