ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Waited to post this until after the West Brom game.
Overall, a pretty uneventful game in Cardiff with almost no clear chances for either side – I’ll be amazed if both teams don’t have an XG less than 1. However, Cardiff sat back and we found those key moments to keep our season rolling along.
The game did produce one of my favourite moments of the season though. Big Kieff is having his shirt removed in the box and I leap out of my chair screaming for a pen – Big Kieff, however, ignores it completely, thinks fuck that and calmly smashes a half-volley into the top corner. No falling to the ground with arms outstretched screaming for a pen for Big Kieff – proper Blade. Follow that up with another quality finish and Kieff is showing that we can take this show to an even higher level.
I am still impressed with “Salmon” McCallum and, for the next tougher opponents, I would give him a start on the right of the 3 in place of an underwhelming JRS who looks in need of a rest . As I said before, Salmon has good feet, is left footed and his jump would offer a good target when GoalCooper kicks long. He would also provide strong support in front of Alfie against the more competitive teams that we are about to face. TD has got back to fitness just in time to mean that we still look solid without Vini, and Gus and Cal provide a perpetual motion threat further forwards.
So, moving on to the graphs that illustrate a season that is becoming increasingly impressive.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 48 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 4 ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with a 2 point deduction.
Although people point out that we now have 4 tough games ahead, my Autos schedule allows for that, and only assumes 6 points from the next 4 games.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 48 points after 22 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 11 points ahead of the 37 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 7 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and only 1 point behind Warnock in 05/06.
So we are an amazing 11 points ahead of that great 18/19 season with a 2-point deduction, and without the deduction we would still be 1 point ahead of our fantastic Championship start in 2005.
Graph 2:
Historically, our best season ever at this level was in 1952/53, when we got the equivalent of 93 points (allowing for the different number of games and different points for a win). As it’s the season half-way point on Boxing Day, I’ll post a graph next week comparing this season against all of our best old seasons at this level.
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are still proudly at the top of the pile. Blades, Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland are starting to open up a bit of a gap back to the pack, with Blackburn trying to bridge the gap by hugely outperforming their statistics.
League Table:
So we move into a tough little period now; let’s hope the next game gives us a good Boxing Day to sing about!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Overall, a pretty uneventful game in Cardiff with almost no clear chances for either side – I’ll be amazed if both teams don’t have an XG less than 1. However, Cardiff sat back and we found those key moments to keep our season rolling along.
The game did produce one of my favourite moments of the season though. Big Kieff is having his shirt removed in the box and I leap out of my chair screaming for a pen – Big Kieff, however, ignores it completely, thinks fuck that and calmly smashes a half-volley into the top corner. No falling to the ground with arms outstretched screaming for a pen for Big Kieff – proper Blade. Follow that up with another quality finish and Kieff is showing that we can take this show to an even higher level.
I am still impressed with “Salmon” McCallum and, for the next tougher opponents, I would give him a start on the right of the 3 in place of an underwhelming JRS who looks in need of a rest . As I said before, Salmon has good feet, is left footed and his jump would offer a good target when GoalCooper kicks long. He would also provide strong support in front of Alfie against the more competitive teams that we are about to face. TD has got back to fitness just in time to mean that we still look solid without Vini, and Gus and Cal provide a perpetual motion threat further forwards.
So, moving on to the graphs that illustrate a season that is becoming increasingly impressive.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 48 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 4 ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with a 2 point deduction.
Although people point out that we now have 4 tough games ahead, my Autos schedule allows for that, and only assumes 6 points from the next 4 games.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 48 points after 22 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 11 points ahead of the 37 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 7 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and only 1 point behind Warnock in 05/06.
So we are an amazing 11 points ahead of that great 18/19 season with a 2-point deduction, and without the deduction we would still be 1 point ahead of our fantastic Championship start in 2005.
Graph 2:
Historically, our best season ever at this level was in 1952/53, when we got the equivalent of 93 points (allowing for the different number of games and different points for a win). As it’s the season half-way point on Boxing Day, I’ll post a graph next week comparing this season against all of our best old seasons at this level.
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are still proudly at the top of the pile. Blades, Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland are starting to open up a bit of a gap back to the pack, with Blackburn trying to bridge the gap by hugely outperforming their statistics.
League Table:
So we move into a tough little period now; let’s hope the next game gives us a good Boxing Day to sing about!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
