Some Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations...

[SwissBlade]

The playing surface that shall not be named.

Tarmac? RedGra?

 

[coaxingstar71]

I'm thinking if we just win our remaining home games, we'll win the title!

 

[PeteBlade]

A much simpler way to work things out.

Promotion winning teams average around 2 points per game, sometimes it goes to 2.3 etc in the form table.

Bolton current average over 6 games is 1.83 per game. 9 Games to go, if they keep the current form that's 16.47 points they will get. Lets call it 18

Fleetwood current average over 6 games is 2.16 points per game,8 games to go , if keep the current form that's 17.28 points they will get. Lets call it 18.

SUFC are 10 points ahead of Fleetwood. Meaning we need 9 points to finish second (and hope for goal difference), and 10 points should mean we finish above Bolton.

If we keep our current form of 2.33 points per game, with 8 to play means we should get 18.64 points, lets call it 19. Means we will finish the season on 98 points!

Both Fleetwood and Bolton need a great set of results, and we need a poor set of results. 8 draws could do it for us.

Why wouldn't you round Bolton's figure up to 17?

 

[west_yorks_blade]

The playing surface that shall not be named.

This thread is also missing a 'That's Number wang' comment.

So here it is.

 

[Maidenhead]

Why wouldn't you round Bolton's figure up to 17?

Because at 16.47 rounding down is the obvious way to go.

The real question is why would you round Fleetwoods 17.28 up to 18?

 

[LJBlade]

A much simpler way to work things out.

Promotion winning teams average around 2 points per game, sometimes it goes to 2.3 etc in the form table.

Bolton current average over 6 games is 1.83 per game. 9 Games to go, if they keep the current form that's 16.47 points they will get. Lets call it 18

Fleetwood current average over 6 games is 2.16 points per game,8 games to go , if keep the current form that's 17.28 points they will get. Lets call it 18.

SUFC are 10 points ahead of Fleetwood. Meaning we need 9 points to finish second (and hope for goal difference), and 10 points should mean we finish above Bolton.

If we keep our current form of 2.33 points per game, with 8 to play means we should get 18.64 points, lets call it 19. Means we will finish the season on 98 points!

Both Fleetwood and Bolton need a great set of results, and we need a poor set of results. 8 draws could do it for us.

Too many 'shoulds' in your post for my liking. Based on the current averages we 'should' finish above Bolton and Fleetwood but there's nothing stopping them both winning all of their remaining games (unlikely I know).

I like the OP and the idea of the magic number. 15 to finish above Fleetwood sounds very achieveable

 

[Bladezz]

Because at 16.47 rounding down is the obvious way to go.

The real question is why would you round Fleetwoods 17.28 up to 18?

For worst case scenario, apologies should have made it clear.

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

As things stand Tuesday morning, before today's matches, only nine teams have a mathematical (as opposed to a practical) chance of catching the Blades, based on the number of points United has, versus the total theoretical maximum teams could earn if they ran the table for the rest of the season. Thus, the Blades can finish, at absolute worst if they collapse utterly and lose their last eight games) in 10th place, which I'll show in a moment is quite unlikely.

Just in case you were wondering at which point I stopped reading, that was it.

Oh, and welcome on board btw

 

[Jon P]

10 more points and we're up. Simples

 

[andy m]

That was so dull.

 

[Sharrow Snuff Mill]

As for Bristol, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

Mea Blader, mea maxima blader.

 

[Grey Blade]

My back of envelope calculations. Complete with coffee stains and nuisance phone call number.

Oh well. I tried!

 

[blade too long]

how come no ones attacking this op
its far more fantastical than any of mine
more ifs than a telly savalas concert

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

This is a blatant copy of my thread "Possible ways the season could end" from yesterday...

Thought we'd established the season will end with a blow on a whistle?

 

[itsinyerblood]

No he's not.

Yeah, watch ol' Pete, Costello, subterfuge is his main weapon of choice, before you know it you'll have a stiletto between your shoulder-blades.

 

[Rusty view]

Tarmac? RedGra?

Red Gra staining white plimsolls since 1970

 

[Dkc]

Calculating using any form table, we go up in all scenarios so there is not much point. What I'm interested in how many we can afford to draw or lose. Could we go up without winning another game?

 

[derfblade.3]

 

[EOCostello]

Calculating using any form table, we go up in all scenarios so there is not much point. What I'm interested in how many we can afford to draw or lose. Could we go up without winning another game?

To directly answer your question, I think some combination of two losses and two ties (going 4-2-2) would mean we would be in the playoffs, but it would make automatic promotion a squeaker. To state the obvious, 5 wins in the remaining 8 games would make it just about mathematically impossible for Sheffield not to be automatically promoted.

I think the scenario (that is, promotion without winning another game) is mathematically possible, but not likely. If the team went 0-8-0 the rest of the season, both Bolton and Fleetwood would have a good chance to catch up to earn the two automatic positions, and there is a risk (a very small one, but there), that going 0-8-0 would keep Sheffield out of the playoffs entirely.

Going 0-3-5 (i.e., 0 wins but 5 draws) would certainly allow us, in all likelihood, to squeak into the playoffs, since 5 points earned by Sheffield would eliminate Bristol Rovers, Oxford and Rochdale, and Southend and Scunthorpe would have to practically run the table the rest of the way; and Scunthorpe has matches against Bolton, Bradford and Millwall in the next three weeks. It would mean, however, automatic promotion is a much slimmer hope, and depends on Bolton and Fleetwood's form.

Given that 5 of the remaining 8 games are against teams in the bottom half of the table, and 3 of those games are against teams in the relegation zone, going 0-8-0 or 0-3-5 doesn't seem a likely scenario.

 

[ghandi]

To directly answer your question, I think some combination of two losses and two ties (going 4-2-2) would mean we would be in the playoffs, but it would make automatic promotion a squeaker. To state the obvious, 5 wins in the remaining 8 games would make it just about mathematically impossible for Sheffield not to be automatically promoted.

I think the scenario (that is, promotion without winning another game) is mathematically possible, but not likely. If the team went 0-8-0 the rest of the season, both Bolton and Fleetwood would have a good chance to catch up to earn the two automatic positions, and there is a risk (a very small one, but there), that going 0-8-0 would keep Sheffield out of the playoffs entirely.

Going 0-3-5 (i.e., 0 wins but 5 draws) would certainly allow us, in all likelihood, to squeak into the playoffs, since 5 points earned by Sheffield would eliminate Bristol Rovers, Oxford and Rochdale, and Southend and Scunthorpe would have to practically run the table the rest of the way; and Scunthorpe has matches against Bolton, Bradford and Millwall in the next three weeks. It would mean, however, automatic promotion is a much slimmer hope, and depends on Bolton and Fleetwood's form.

Given that 5 of the remaining 8 games are against teams in the bottom half of the table, and 3 of those games are against teams in the relegation zone, going 0-8-0 or 0-3-5 doesn't seem a likely scenario.

No offence my friend but all these odds compilations should be left to the bookies and we should just leave everything to the team to deliver or not wharever the case maybe.

 

[Pierre's PC]

 

[HighfieldBlade]

I'm doubled-over in stitches at the piss-taking replies to the OP. Pure class!
Welcome to the forum btw EOCostello .

 

[BushBlade]

To directly answer your question, I think some combination of two losses and two ties (going 4-2-2) would mean we would be in the playoffs, but it would make automatic promotion a squeaker. To state the obvious, 5 wins in the remaining 8 games would make it just about mathematically impossible for Sheffield not to be automatically promoted.

I think the scenario (that is, promotion without winning another game) is mathematically possible, but not likely. If the team went 0-8-0 the rest of the season, both Bolton and Fleetwood would have a good chance to catch up to earn the two automatic positions, and there is a risk (a very small one, but there), that going 0-8-0 would keep Sheffield out of the playoffs entirely.

Going 0-3-5 (i.e., 0 wins but 5 draws) would certainly allow us, in all likelihood, to squeak into the playoffs, since 5 points earned by Sheffield would eliminate Bristol Rovers, Oxford and Rochdale, and Southend and Scunthorpe would have to practically run the table the rest of the way; and Scunthorpe has matches against Bolton, Bradford and Millwall in the next three weeks. It would mean, however, automatic promotion is a much slimmer hope, and depends on Bolton and Fleetwood's form.

Given that 5 of the remaining 8 games are against teams in the bottom half of the table, and 3 of those games are against teams in the relegation zone, going 0-8-0 or 0-3-5 doesn't seem a likely scenario.

I'm not a maths expert but I reckon there's only 24 points to play for. We're ten ahead of Fleetwood so 5 wins would mean they can't catch us.

 

[Crouchy]

To directly answer your question, I think some combination of two losses and two ties (going 4-2-2) would mean we would be in the playoffs, but it would make automatic promotion a squeaker. To state the obvious, 5 wins in the remaining 8 games would make it just about mathematically impossible for Sheffield not to be automatically promoted.

I think the scenario (that is, promotion without winning another game) is mathematically possible, but not likely. If the team went 0-8-0 the rest of the season, both Bolton and Fleetwood would have a good chance to catch up to earn the two automatic positions, and there is a risk (a very small one, but there), that going 0-8-0 would keep Sheffield out of the playoffs entirely.

Going 0-3-5 (i.e., 0 wins but 5 draws) would certainly allow us, in all likelihood, to squeak into the playoffs, since 5 points earned by Sheffield would eliminate Bristol Rovers, Oxford and Rochdale, and Southend and Scunthorpe would have to practically run the table the rest of the way; and Scunthorpe has matches against Bolton, Bradford and Millwall in the next three weeks. It would mean, however, automatic promotion is a much slimmer hope, and depends on Bolton and Fleetwood's form.

Given that 5 of the remaining 8 games are against teams in the bottom half of the table, and 3 of those games are against teams in the relegation zone, going 0-8-0 or 0-3-5 doesn't seem a likely scenario.

Who is this "Sheffield" of whom you speak?

 

[Bladesman]

As things stand Tuesday morning, before today's matches, only nine teams have a mathematical (as opposed to a practical) chance of catching the Blades, based on the number of points United has, versus the total theoretical maximum teams could earn if they ran the table for the rest of the season. Thus, the Blades can finish, at absolute worst (if they collapse utterly and lose their last eight games) in 10th place, which I'll show in a moment is quite unlikely.

These are: Bolton, Fleetwood, Millwall, Bradford, Scunthorpe, Southend, Rochdale, Oxford and Bristol City.

There is a type of "magic number" associated with each of these rivals, which is a combination of "points won" by United, and "points lost" by the team (i.e., 3 points lost for a loss, 2 points lost for a draw).

The "magic number" for each of the nine teams, by my calculations, is as follows, in ascending order: Bristol 1, Oxford 5, Rochdale 6, Southend 7, Scunthorpe 8, Bradford 10, Millwall 12, Fleetwood 15 and Bolton 19.

Where it gets interesting is for days like today (March 21st) where you have two teams still in contention playing each other in a match; in fact, two sets (Oxford v. Bolton and Rochdale v. Millwall). In that case, United can't lose, since some team is going to drop points. Some results, of course, are better than others.

There are a number of combinations possible for today's match, but two stand out in my mind:

(a) Oxford beats Bolton, Rochdale beats Millwall. This would drop the magic numbers for Bolton to 16, Millwall to 9, Rochdale to 6 and Oxford to 5. Obviously, the lower the magic number, the less the Blades have to do to clinch.

(b) Both matches end in draws, reducing the magic numbers as follows: Bolton 17, Millwall 10, Rochdale 4 and Oxford 3.

Looking ahead to this weekend, while it doesn't seem possible that United will clinch a playoff spot, they could knock out as many as three teams from contention (that is, catching the Blades), if results fall a certain way.

(a) Bristol City will be out if: United wins, United draws, Bristol draws OR Bristol loses. Since Bristol has 78 points as its theoretical maximum, and United has 78 points already, that's why Bristol is on the edge, and so many different outcomes can knock it out.

(b) Oxford United will be out if: they lose to either Bolton or Northampton (this weekend) AND the Blades win, or Oxford loses to BOTH Bolton and Northampton. Their magic number being 5, certain 2-match combinations is what will knock them out.

(c) Rochdale will be out if: they lose to BOTH Millwall and Chesterfield AND the Blades win, or if Rochdale loses to BOTH Millwall and Chesterfield AND the Blades draw.

Thus, if all the results fall just right, United can finish no worse than seventh. Southend and Scunthorpe have too many theoretical points to be knocked out, at least this week.

Given that the Blades play three matches against teams currently in the relegation zone (Port Vale, Chesterfield and Coventry), and two more matches against teams in the bottom half (Oldham and MK Dons), it's going to be very tough for other teams to catch them. Beating either Bradford or Millwall in those matches will produce the obvious effect: seriously denting those teams' chances of catching United.

By my calculations, the magic number for making the playoffs is 7 (a combination of points won and opponents losing points), assuming that four teams are knocked out. The magic number for getting automatic promotion is 15, and the magic number for winning the league is 19. Hence the importance of sweeping those five matches against the bottom half.

He uses the word "Sheffield" in his post.

Time to give this one the splintered broom handle treatment.

 

[Sean Thornton]

I'm not a maths expert but I reckon there's only 24 points to play for. We're ten ahead of Fleetwood so 5 wins would mean they can't catch us.

Exactly. There's the starting point to achieving automatic promotion. Then adjust it after the next round of results.

 

[Cerberus Blade]

I'm not a maths expert but I reckon there's only 24 points to play for. We're ten ahead of Fleetwood so 5 wins would mean they can't catch us.

Occam's razor! My fave!

Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

 

[Blade58]

To directly answer your question, I think some combination of two losses and two ties (going 4-2-2) would mean we would be in the playoffs, but it would make automatic promotion a squeaker. To state the obvious, 5 wins in the remaining 8 games would make it just about mathematically impossible for Sheffield not to be automatically promoted.

I think the scenario (that is, promotion without winning another game) is mathematically possible, but not likely. If the team went 0-8-0 the rest of the season, both Bolton and Fleetwood would have a good chance to catch up to earn the two automatic positions, and there is a risk (a very small one, but there), that going 0-8-0 would keep Sheffield out of the playoffs entirely.

Going 0-3-5 (i.e., 0 wins but 5 draws) would certainly allow us, in all likelihood, to squeak into the playoffs, since 5 points earned by Sheffield would eliminate Bristol Rovers, Oxford and Rochdale, and Southend and Scunthorpe would have to practically run the table the rest of the way; and Scunthorpe has matches against Bolton, Bradford and Millwall in the next three weeks. It would mean, however, automatic promotion is a much slimmer hope, and depends on Bolton and Fleetwood's form.

Given that 5 of the remaining 8 games are against teams in the bottom half of the table, and 3 of those games are against teams in the relegation zone, going 0-8-0 or 0-3-5 doesn't seem a likely scenario.

Maths teacher I take it?

 

[HillmortonBlade]

United, Sheffield United.