Run-in Stats

[Jim Chimmerney]

Time to dig out the old spread sheet

Final points based on season average:

Brizzle 96
MK 89
PNE 87
Swindon 86
Blades 77

Last 8 games form:

Brizzle 95
Blades 89
MK 87
PNE 85
Swindon 82

Last 3 games form:

PNE 102
Brizzle 95
Blades 94
MK 90
Swindon 74

 

[TonyAgana]

Interesting stats, Jim - granted, our last month has been almost perfect, but it illustrates the lack of a fat lady singing.

Taking our last 8 games as an average against the season average for other clubs might be the most accurate

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Interesting stats, Jim - granted, our last month has been almost perfect, but it illustrates the lack of a fat lady singing.

Taking our last 8 games as an average against the season average for other clubs might be the most accurate

It changes very quickly, Swindon looked unstoppable a month or so ago but have have lost 4 out of their last 6, PNE didn't win for 4 but have since won 4 on the trot. I think the only certainty is that Brizzle will win the League, we just need to keep winning and hoping.

 

[TonyAgana]

we just need to keep winning and hoping.

I think we will, I have no fear of suffering a dip in form* - I wonder if other clubs feel the same...


*that's why JB is worth at least £1.5m

 

[YES Blade]

I think last season showed that it's one thing getting close and another actually going above. After beating Peterborough at the Lane last season, you'd have thought we would easily get that 6th spot, but one or two dodgy results for us and a few good wins for Peterborough saw us off. I think it will be the same again this year.

 

[MobileBlade]

So I have done a bit of analysis with regards to the team who finished 2nd in the division over the last 20 years and where they were after 32 games (I know we have played 31 but add to the excitement).

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

So I have done a bit of analysis with regards to the team who finished 2nd in the division over the last 20 years and where they were after 32 games (I know we have played 31 but add to the excitement).

View attachment 10798

It does seem to confirm that we're 5 or 6 points off the pace which is what I think will happen, we'll make a decent fist of it but we're just too far behind.

 

[South London Blade]

So I have done a bit of analysis with regards to the team who finished 2nd in the division over the last 20 years and where they were after 32 games (I know we have played 31 but add to the excitement).

View attachment 10798

So not a fucking chance basically. I can't see us winning almost every game left no matter how shit the opposition

 

[sitwell]

I had last night down as a draw ,our most difficult remaining game ,so anything is possible ,especially as injuries and suspensions kick in for other clubs ,we have the best squad.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

So not a fucking chance basically. I can't see us winning almost every game left no matter how shit the opposition

I reckon we can afford to drop 6 points max

 

[bartman]

So not a fucking chance basically. I can't see us winning almost every game left no matter how shit the opposition

Wednesday won 11 out of the last 13 games when they got promoted . 12 wins out of the last 15 will do it I reckon. Unlikely but not impossible

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

I had last night down as a draw ,our most difficult remaining game ,so anything is possible ,especially as injuries and suspensions kick in for other clubs ,we have the best squad.

NC's teams are well set for away games, I think our home form is going to be the key, the Chezzie, Bradford type games. Not forgetting the return of the Cods a week on Saturday

 

[South London Blade]

Wednesday won 11 out of the last 13 games when they got promoted . 12 wins out of the last 15 will do it I reckon. Unlikely but not impossible

Yes but they are spozzy cunts

 

[Trigger Blade]

NC's teams are well set for away games, I think our home form is going to be the key, the Chezzie, Bradford type games. Not forgetting the return of the Cods a week on Saturday

Vale, Scunny and Crewe in 8 days in March as well, they worry me I can't see three wins, though I can never see a win, 5-0 up to Spurs in 1993 and I thought we might cock up the 2nd half

 

[SUFC Handsworth]

I reckon 12 wins and 2 draws out of 15 would put us in with a shout, though if we were to go on a run like that our poor goal difference might come into the equation for top two.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

So I have done a bit of analysis with regards to the team who finished 2nd in the division over the last 20 years and where they were after 32 games (I know we have played 31 but add to the excitement).

View attachment 10798

Interesting stats.
Could you do the same table for the team that finished 3rd?
We only need one point more than that to get promoted and I reckon we'd be close to the average.

 

[Blade56]

Time to dig out the old spread sheet

Final points based on season average:

Brizzle 96
MK 89
PNE 87
Swindon 86
Blades 77

Last 8 games form:

Brizzle 95
Blades 89
MK 87
PNE 85
Swindon 82

Last 3 games form:

PNE 102
Brizzle 95
Blades 94
MK 90
Swindon 74

Can you do one on last 14 games?

 

[TonyAgana]

In terms of momentum, it'd be a shitter if we went into the play-offs having just missed out on auto.

 

[Grecian2000]

I had last night down as a draw ,our most difficult remaining game

Ahh, but I bet you had us down for a win last Saturday as it was one of our easiest fixtures!

How many times do you get upsets in those last few games? Best just let it play out and not worry unduly, win every game and see where it leaves you.

Oh, and not to forget all the "derby" games and form books going out of windows and all that shit!

 

[grafikhaus]

Wednesday won 11 out of the last 13 games when they got promoted .

All we need is for Bristol, Swindon & MKD's star strikers to be sent down and we can match Wednesday's fucking luck.

 

[TonyAgana]

All we need is for Bristol, Swindon & MKD's star strikers to be sent down and we can match Wednesday's fucking luck.

The most galling thing about that is that they don't recognise for one second how fucking lucky they were.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

The most galling thing about that is that they don't recognise for one second how fucking lucky they were.

They made their own luck. We could have still fucked up even with Ched in the squad.

 

[finlaytheblade]

I reckon 12 wins and 2 draws out of 15 would put us in with a shout, though if we were to go on a run like that our poor goal difference might come into the equation for top two.

our goal difference would improve enormously if we put the said amout of wins together so it is possible, lets enjoy the ride for as last night proved we are going to have to dig out some wins and although it was uncomfortable towards the end ,great feeling when the final wistle blows.plenty more like that to come! phew¬ hope the old ticker can take it.Being blades we;re used to it! bring it on.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

our goal difference would improve enormously if we put the said amout of wins together so it is possible, lets enjoy the ride for as last night proved we are going to have to dig out some wins and although it was uncomfortable towards the end ,great feeling when the final wistle blows.plenty more like that to come! phew¬ hope the old ticker can take it.Being blades we;re used to it! bring it on.

It might improve to the level that Swindon or Preston are at, but extremey unlikely to beat Mkdons.

 

[TonyAgana]

They made their own luck. We could have still fucked up even with Ched in the squad.

But we wouldn't.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

They made their own luck. We could have still fucked up even with Ched in the squad.

It's a brave bookie who would have taken on a bet that Ched wouldn't have scored again that season.

 

[MobileBlade]

Interesting stats.
Could you do the same table for the team that finished 3rd?
We only need one point more than that to get promoted and I reckon we'd be close to the average.

I've updated with the number of points of the 3rd place team at the end of the season.


A win on Saturday puts us on 54 after 32 games and in line with Oxford (96), Stockport (97), Leeds (10), Southampton (11). All were in 5th place or lower on similar points. The points per game range for these clubs was 2.14 - 2.64. When you look at the points they actually needed to achieve promotion indication is we will need around 2.3 - 2.4 points per game on average meaning 33-34 points and therefore can afford to drop 8-9 points only from remaining games.

 

[Kenilworth]

Win Satdi would out us on 55 pts Moby

Still think Preston have the edge with the 7 points in hand they have on us with same number of games played and the players coming back (Garner)
Brizzle will kick on again now Wilbrahim is back in the fold

Anticipate Swindon and MKD to drop points (Dele Alli is a blow to MKD)

We will get 3rd place in my estimation - and fuck up the POF

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Can you do one on last 14 games?

Just to include our bad run of form

Brizzle 98
Preston 89
MK 87
Swindon 85
Blades 76

 

[Sothall_Blade]

I've updated with the number of points of the 3rd place team at the end of the season.
View attachment 10803

A win on Saturday puts us on 54 after 32 games and in line with Oxford (96), Stockport (97), Leeds (10), Southampton (11). All were in 5th place or lower on similar points. The points per game range for these clubs was 2.14 - 2.64. When you look at the points they actually needed to achieve promotion indication is we will need around 2.3 - 2.4 points per game on average meaning 33-34 points and therefore can afford to drop 8-9 points only from remaining games.

By these stats we need 84 points to better the average 3rd place finish.
So that's 33 more points from 15 matches meaning we can afford to drop 12 points.
I suspect the problem will be that the total is higher than average this season meaning we need around 87 or 88 points.