Run in difficulty - the top 6

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'Kin ell mate. We've just lost to Oxford, Burnley have beaten Coventry away, Leeds will keep on winning or drawing, hardly ever losing. Just how many 'stats' do you need.
 
I sincerely hope you're right, just not as confident as you.
UTB
 
I'm going to preface this this week with an acknowledgement that the supposed difficulty of the remaining fixtures means nothing once the 11 players cross that white line. Burnley had the hardest fixture this weekend, and won, whilst Leeds an ourselves dropped points where we weren't expecting to.

This weeks update:
  • Burnley - their run in got easier - this is due to getting the game against Cov out of the way - and our Away PPg dropping (making their home game against us look easier)
  • Our run in got very slightly harder after this round of games - mostly as a result of us getting the Oxford game out of the way
  • Leeds away run in also got slightly harder - mostly as a result of them playing their "easiest" away fiture
Based on seasonal PPG, accounting for H/A, our run in is 11th (was 12th) easiest in the division. Leeds is 6th (7th) easiest. Burnley is 17th (22nd) easiest
  • Wednesday actually have the 3rd (2nd) easiest run in - the problem for them being the points they are already behind Coventry and WBA who have the 1st (4th) and 2nd (5th) easiest run ins respectively.
  • I keep banging the drum - Stoke still might be in a bit of bother - they have the 5th hardest run in and only a 2 point cushion to Derby (10th easiest) and Cardiff (11th easiest)
And for the next round of fixtures
  • Blades home to Millwall (1.15 season ppg, 1.50 last 4 ppg)
  • Burnley away at Derby (1.50 season ppg, 2.25 last 4 ppg)
  • Leeds away at Boro (1.65 season ppg, 1.25 last 4 ppg)
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Pre-Oxford, I had us winning the title. I thought we'd come back from the International Break firing on all cylinders and we were going to kick-on with the Coventry performance as the benchmark. Unfortunately, we didn't back it up, it now just looks more of an anomaly than anything else.

I also thought Leeds & Burnley would both drop points in their tough trips on the road and we'd seize the opportunity.
Unfortunately, Burnley won another tough fixture and now, I see them motoring home. They have a manager and squad that are experienced in these positions, the strongest defence in the league and have found some form in front of goal.

After another look at the remaining fixtures, I now have us finishing 3rd on GD.
 
Leeds and Burnley ought to finish top two, IMO. That's not being defeatist. I'm simply working on the basis that they have greater squad depth across the park, with like-for-like replacements in each position, enabling them to play the same system with the same tempo. Their squads are also more well established, in terms of the groups of players having been together, for longer.

That's what it ought to come down to, IMO. That takes nothing away from the tremendous position we've put ourselves in (Oxford result aside).
 
1066blade said:
'Kin ell mate. We've just lost to Oxford, Burnley have beaten Coventry away, Leeds will keep on winning or drawing, hardly ever losing. Just how many 'stats' do you need.
Click to expand...
If Leeds keep on drawing it will kill them. Last 6 they've W1 D4 L1 for 7 points. We've W4 D1 L1 for 13 points.

Repeat that in the remaining 6 and we finish on 96 and Leeds on 89
 
programmechap said:
If Leeds keep on drawing it will kill them. Last 6 they've W1 D4 L1 for 7 points. We've W4 D1 L1 for 13 points.

Repeat that in the remaining 6 and we finish on 96 and Leeds on 89
Click to expand...
Lets assume the above does happen, but its a worst case scenario. So Leeds W1 D1 of the next 2, and we D1L1.

Going into the cardiff game - we'd be two points behind Leeds, and a point behind them when we kick off against Burnley.

That would not be fun.

Although we would be promoted when Leeds draw their second last game.
 
Selly said:
Lets assume the above does happen, but its a worst case scenario. So Leeds W1 D1 of the next 2, and we D1L1.

Going into the cardiff game - we'd be two points behind Leeds, and a point behind them when we kick off against Burnley.

That would not be fun.

Although we would be promoted when Leeds draw their second last game.
Click to expand...

Indeed. But I'm just pointing out that Leeds rarely losing doesn't matter that much as long as they keep drawing plenty...
 
programmechap said:
Indeed. But I'm just pointing out that Leeds rarely losing doesn't matter that much as long as they keep drawing plenty...
Click to expand...
quite - in fact with those draws they are staring to have a bit of a Burnley run to them.

People seem to forget that over the last 2 games we (having W1L1) have actually accumulated 1 more point than leeds (D2). If we W3L3 of the next 6 the Leeds need to W3D1L2 to get ahead of us - for a team who have won 1 in 6 that might be hard - but they absolutely have the ability to do so.

key for us is to win on Tuesday and then se where we are - I suspect we will have gained ground on one of our two opponents - but if we haven`t then its another game down.
 
Selly said:
quite - in fact with those draws they are staring to have a bit of a Burnley run to them.

People seem to forget that over the last 2 games we (having W1L1) have actually accumulated 1 more point than leeds (D2). If we W3L3 of the next 6 the Leeds need to W3D1L2 to get ahead of us - for a team who have won 1 in 6 that might be hard - but they absolutely have the ability to do so.

key for us is to win on Tuesday and then se where we are - I suspect we will have gained ground on one of our two opponents - but if we haven`t then its another game down.
Click to expand...
I know after Oxford etc, you can't take anything for granted, but I reckon the neutral observer would see the most likely outcome from the next 2 games as:

United WW
Leeds LW
Burnley WW

Which would see us 4 ahead of Leeds with 4 games left..
 

Hard update this following the Millwall game - and I know its difficult to be optimistic - but we do - theoretically - have an easier run in than Burnley, and comparable to Leeds...

This weeks update:
  • Burnley - their run in got slightly harder - this is due to getting the game against Derby out of the way - and Millwalls win at our place pushing up their PPG
  • Leeds away run in got slightly easier - mostly as a result of them playing their "hardest" away fixture 9Boro)
  • Our run in got easier as well, at least at Home, after this round of games - mostly as a result of us getting the our "hardest" remaining home game out of the way
Based on seasonal PPG, accounting for H/A, our run in is 13th (was 11th) easiest in the division. Leeds is 4th (6th) easiest. Burnley is 18th (17th) easiest
  • Wednesday actually have the 3rd (no change) easiest run in - the problem for them being the points they are already behind Coventry and WBA who have the 8th (1st) and 1st (2nd) easiest run ins respectively.
  • I keep banging the drum - Stoke still might be in a bit of bother - they have the hardest run in and only a 2 point cushion to Derby (5th easiest) and Cardiff (9th easiest)
And for the next round of fixtures
  • Blades away v Plymouth (1.4 season ppg, 1.0 last 4 ppg) - our easiest away game (of 3)
  • Burnley home v Norwich (0.9 season ppg, 0.5 last 4 ppg) - comfortably their easiest remaining home game (of 3)
  • Leeds home v PNE (0.8 season ppg, 0.25 last 4 ppg) - their second easiest home game (of 3)
Based on the above - we will do well to come out of this weekend no worse off.

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Selly said:
In case anyone is wondering, I'm not bothering to update this anymore. Seems pointless to look at the relative difficulty of fixtures when we have just had the three results we have had...
Click to expand...

Can you do a "form going into play offs" last 4 games of each time we've gone in?
 
Pollingtonblade said:
Can you do a "form going into play offs" last 4 games of each time we've gone in?
Click to expand...
Selly

Thread 'Our form heading into past play off campaigns'

As requested in this thread, I've had a look at our form heading into past playoff campaigns. I'm not counting 1988 as it was a completely different format. I've also highlighted games which were mathematical dead rubbers for us.

Is there a conclusion here? Well the "worst" season in which we got to a final (02-03) we achieved 1.375ppg over the final 8 games. Only once (21-22) have we averaged more than that and not made the final (and there we lost on penalties). So it does seem to be some correlation between better form and reaching the final.

Of course, given we have then...
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