I was going to post in a "Results vs Performance" thread, but couldn't be arsed to find one. So I'll ramble on in here instead.
Today is another conflicting game. I'm chuffed to get the win, and pleased that we've not let the result on Monday affect us, but I'm again frustrated by the standard of play on the pitch.
I should make the point here that I do believe that results are more important than performances, however I also believe that the team at present is capable of playing to a far higher standard than we are currently seeing. And my frustrations arise from there as a result. As such, I'll likely go on for a while here.
The goals today were great. Terrific cross for the opener, and really good strength from BBD to win the header. I can safely say though, that if we'd conceded that goal, I'd be giving our defence pelters for losing out to a lone opponent in the box, so I can sympathise with QPR fans for that one.
Tyrese Campbell. What a bloody goal. He's shot out the traps quick in the Goal of the Month competition - does he really like March or something?
But the performance around those goals, was overall, fairly underwhelming. I've had a look at the match stats that Sky Sports have recorded. And they are quite startling. The standout ones are below:
Possession: QPR 56%-44% SUFC
Shots (On target): QPR 16(4)-8(2) SUFC
I recognise that there is far more to a match than just these 2 statistics, and there is often a degree of bias towards the home side in terms of possession, but even still, I wouldn't have expected us to give up so much of the ball, and allow so many shots.
With the 5 we had through midfield (Souza-Peck-Hamer-O'Hare-BBD), we really ought to have exerted a greater amount of control on the game. I find it really surprising that we were so accepting of QPR having the ball in there despite that assembly of players. It seems we often lose the midfield battle, even against teams with obviously weaker midfield personnel.
I've felt for a while we'd do better if O'Hare (or whomever fills that #10 role) were to drop deeper and play as a #8. You then have Vini as the defensive base, interrupting attacks and regaining possession, a box-to-box-type in Peck/T. Davies, and then a more progressive, forward-thinking midfielder, such as O'Hare/Hamer, who has less defensive responsibility, but is more easily able to combine with the other 2 to control possession in the middle 3rd of the pitch. This also ought to free up space for the wingers, as they look to cut inside.
We've played like this all season to some degree, and to varying degrees of success. We were especially good at it before Christmas, due to having Souttar in the side. Many teams were forced into playing long balls, which he would eat up all game, and then we could take control of the game. But having lost that ace up our sleeves, we've become much easier to exploit.
It's gotten much, much easier, for opposing teams to move the ball into their final 3rd, and more importantly, to make it stay in thee for extended periods. We very often struggle to properly clear the ball at the first attempt, and end up scrambling for the 2nd (or sometimes 3rd) ball, before smashing it away and gaining some respite. We're having to rely on Cooper a lot more than we were as a result, and I'm very relieved that he's as good as we thought he'd be. Cause if he wasn't, we would not be fighting for promotion right now.
I vividly remember a comment from Wilder in his first spell in charge, where he spoke about our style of play being around creating "high percentage chances", and how he'd rather have a handful of chances, each with a very high likelihood of scoring, than a larger number of shots, each with a lower probability of conversion. And when I remember that, it helps me rationalise our goals scored value on the league table, and how it is particularly modest, when compared to the amount of offensive talent in our squad.
In the tail end of Wilder's first reign, we became so obsessed with these high percentage chances, that if we couldn't find space for one, we wouldn't push forward. We'd come backwards and build again. It often feels like we're doing the same thing now.
That isn't a bad thing in isolation, and when we were keeping clean sheets like they were going out of fashion, scoring fewer goals was not as much of a concern. But when we are conceding more goals, and not seeing an increased number scored to compensate, it's worrying. We've kept just 3 clean sheets in 11 league games in 2025 (vs 14 in our first 24 this season). And scored 17 in those 11, vs 33 in 24 pre-New Year. So we are more than twice as likely to concede post-New Year vs before it (3 clean sheets in 11 = approx. 27%; 14 in 24 = approx. 58%), and not scoring significantly more goals to make up for it (17 scored in 11 games = approx. 1.5 goals scored per game; 33 in 24 = 1.375 per game).
There are a number of issues that could be delved into further around doing the above, but I've gone on enough. Suffice it to say, that I'll still celebrate every win, whether it be a scrappy 1-0, or an enthralling 4-goal drubbing. But, it's alarmingly obvious to me that this team is currently still less than the sum of its parts. And I'm anticipating every game in fervent hope, that the true standard this side can achieve finally comes out to play.
